Quick Fantasy Hits for Week 2
As we wade into more Fantasy action, there are some nuggets that are too in-depth to get into on Fantasy Football Today , too smart for Twitter and a little too short for the full column. This is where they fit. Enjoy these Week 2 Quick Hits:
Four interesting observations using Week 1 target data:
1. It's safe to say Randall Cobb was the Target Superstar, converting every pass thrown his way. He finished Sunday with nine targets and nine catches. With Greg Jennings possibly out for Week 2, and Cobb showing he can be trusted to hold onto the ball, he could be in line for a very big week again.
2. For as bad as Ronnie Brown 's rushing stats looked after Monday night's game, he converted all five of his targets. The only other running back who caught all of his targets (minimum of five) was Reggie Bush .
3. Reggie Wayne led all wide receivers with 18 targets. He finished with nine receptions. If Week 1 is any indication, Andrew Luck will be going to Wayne often.This benefits both players. Luck, maligned for having a "bad game" because he threw just one touchdown, still passed for over 300 yards in his NFL debut. He now has a receiver who will catch at least half the balls thrown his way.
4. While a lot of waiver wire attention has been paid to Andrew Hawkins and Stephen Hill , Damian Williams was targetetd six times and finished with five receptions, a percentage of 85.7 percent. He may make for a decent flier in deeper leagues, because even assuming Kenny Britt returns, there's still the problem of a hobbled Nate Washington .
Brandon Weeden could have a very good Week 2. To say Weeden had a nightmarish Week 1 (12-35, 118 yards, four interceptions) would be a massive understatement, but there were some factors that could give his owners optimism. For one, Weeden's receviers are a much more dynamic group than advertised. According to our ADP results, Greg Little was the only Browns wide receiver taken among the first 280 players, and, after Week 1, he looks like he might be in the middle -- or even at the back -- of the Cleveland pack. Mohamed Massaquoi was targeted eight times, Travis Benjamin was targeted six times and Little, Josh Gordon and Brandon Jackson were each targeted four times. Weeden seemed to overthrow every other pass, but they did try to go deep several times and the game actually started with a great slant play to Massaquoi. Things got very ugly after the first drive, but if Weeden can stop overthrowing everyone, he can emerge from Week 2 with a totally different set of numbers.
Really, dude? Weeden? In Weeden's
NFL.com draft profile, listed among his strengths were these
• "The ball zips off his arm, and he has the ability to fit it in any tight space."
• "He is an accurate passer on throws short and long, and he has that gunslinger mentality to go for the deep ball when it's an option."
• "He understands route progressions and throwing the ball to allow his receiver to make a play."
What this adds up to is a rookie who may have just been a little too pumped up for his first game. You don't just throw away years of scouting and data on one game. His weaknesses from the draft profile were centered around his lack of athleticism and limited scrambling ability, not overthrowing receivers and missing targets. By Week 4, if he can connect with some of his speedy receivers, Weeden's Week 1 performance may look like an aberration in a promising set of games.
Some fun quick kicker stats. In leagues where you get bonuses for distance, David Akers kicked a 63-yarder, Blair Walsh hit a 55-yarder and Sebastian Janikowski nailed a 51-yarder. St. Louis' Greg Zuerlein converted a 48-yard field goal. It's Walsh, though, who makes for an intriguing pickup this week. He hit a 55-yard field gial at the end of regulation -- along with three other field goals (of 20, 38, and 42 yards) and two extra points -- inside the dome at Mall of America Field. A sixth-round draft pick this year, Walsh is owned in just 6 percent of leagues. He hit the second-longest field goal of the week in a clutch situation and added another in overtime for the win. A rookie, his name isn't as comforting as the Janikowskis or Hansons of the world, but Walsh could end up being a top kicker in Fantasy this season, considering his Week 1 performance. Granted, we're talking kickers here, but sometimes Fantasy games are decided by just a few points and a dependable kicker with a big leg could be the difference in those tight matchups.
If I never get another question about Andrew Hawkins , I will be a happy man. But it's part of the job. I swung and missed badly on Ronnie Brown last week, figuring, based on all the reports, coach comments, offensive system from last year and extenuating circumstances, that he'd get 20 touches in Week 1. But there was still a part of me that thought Curtis Brinkley could eat into carries. There's no better way to explain it than odds. It was 3/1 that Brown would get 20 touches and maybe 8/1 that Brinkley would get the most. But that's too long for Twitter. So, before another Week 2 debacle, here are some totally unofficial, quick odds on some of the biggest names from this week:
Odds that he's this year's Laurent Robinson : 3/1
Odds that he's a one-week wonder: 8/1
Over/under on touchdowns for the entire season: 7
Odds that he doesn't have another 100-yard game this season: 16/1
I'm betting on: The over on TDs, but I'm not ready to declare him a Robinson-style 10 TD lock.
Odds that he leads the Jets in receiving yards: 10/1
Odds that he finishes the year with fewer than 600 receiving yards: 8/1
Odds that Tim Tebow finishes the season with more touchdowns than Hill: 4/1
Over/under on percentage owned by the start of Week 2 games: 65
I'm betting on: The over on percentage owned, and I might put a little faith in Tebow scoring more touchdowns. On the flip side to that, I don't see Hill leading the Jets in receving yards, but I can see him as an 800-yard, seven-touchdown receiver this season.
Odds that he starts all 16 games for Washington: 250/1
Odds that he rushes for 1,000 yards this season: 35/1
Odds that he doesn't have one 100-yard rushing game this season: 75/1
I'm betting on: The 1,000 yard rushing season. If he can stay healthy, Shanahan will stick with him for the entire season, which could have him (in that offense) at 1,000 yards by Week 11. Going with the 16-game slate is a slippery slope -- he could get hurt, or, if he does break out and Washington locks up a playoff bid, he could be rested in Week 17.
Odds that he doesn't have a 100 yard rushing game this season: 150/1
Odds that he'll miss time with an injury: 55/1
Over/under on touchdowns for the entire season: 8
Odds that he has his first 100-yard rushing game by Week 3: 45/1
I'm betting on: The over on touchdowns and the 100-yard game by Week 3. And I'll parlay that for a big payday. Richardson was rusty in Week 1 and may still be rusty in Week 2, but he should hit his stride by Week 3. After that, he could be a huge breakout candidate for the rest of the season.
Reggie Bush quietly had a great Week 1 game. Maybe a bigger deal wasn't made about it because Miami was so bad overall, but Bush averaged 4.9 yards per carry, while catching six passes for 46 yards. He's already managed 16 percent of his receiving total from last year and that number should remain steady, as Miami's lack of big playmaking wide receivers opens up plenty of opportunities for Bush to catch more passes. PPR owners may want to pay attention to Bush and maybe even offer a deal before he scores some touchdowns and starts to pile on his point totals. He's currently owned in 100 percent of leagues, but started in just 67 percent.
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