Quick Fantasy Hits for Week 7
Three positions have shown sizeable gains in Fantasy point production coming off bye weeks this season. Which are they? And why should you buy low on Steve Johnson? Nando Di Fino explains in his Quick Fantasy Hits for Week 7.
As we wade into a seventh week of action, there are some nuggets that are too in-depth for the podcast, too smart for Twitter and a little too short for the full column. Enjoy these Week 7 Quick Fantasy Hits:
Your byes for Week 7: Atlanta, Denver, Kansas City, Miami, Philadelphia, San Diego.
Speaking of bye weeks ... Take a quick look at these numbers:
Tony Romo 25-for-36, 261 passing yards, two touchdowns, one interception (20 points)
Matthew Stafford 22-for-45, 311 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception (22 points)
Carson Palmer 23-for-33, 353 yards, one touchdown, one interception (16 points)
Josh Freeman 15-for-26, 328 yards, three touchdowns, one interception (29 points)
Besides "they all threw an interception," these four quarterbacks all had one thing in common: they were coming off a bye in Week 6. Of the six quarterbacks who have played following a bye week, four had marked improvements over their average in their pre-bye week numbers. And only Ben Roethlisberger saw his stats take a hit. Observe:
Weeks 1-3: 27 point average
Week 5: 15 points
Weeks 1-3: 20 point average
Week 5: 32 points
Weeks 1-4: 14 point average
Week 6: 20 points
Weeks 1-4: 16.75 point average
Week 6: 22 points
Weeks 1-4: 17 point average
Week 6: 16 points
Weeks 1-4: 13 point average
Week 6: 29 points
On average, even with Roethlisberger's down day factored in, quarterbacks coming off a bye in 2012 have seen their point output increase 24 percent over their pre-bye week numbers.
It wasn't just the group of quarterbacks coming off byes. In a lot of
these cases, running backs had an uptick in output, as well (the
Steelers and Lions aren't included here because of the changing nature
of their running back position before and after the bye):
Weeks 1-3: 6.3 point average
Week 5: 10 points
Weeks 1-4: 9 point average
Week 6: 9 points (in what was essentially half of a game, thanks to his foot injury)
Weeks 1-4: 8.5 point average
Week 6: 13 points
Weeks 1-4: 8.25 point average
Week 6: 12 points
These four running backs saw an average increase of 37 percent in their Fantasy point output.
Additionally, the stud receviers on post-bye week teams saw their numbers increase, as well (again, with the exception of the Steelers):
Weeks 1-3: 11.3 point average
Week 5: 27 points
Weeks 1-3: 13.3 point average
Week 5: 1 point
Weeks 1-4: 6.75 point average
Week 6: 21 points
Weeks 1-4: 11.75 point average
Week 6: 13 points
Weeks 2-4: 7.7 point average
Week 6: 16 points
Weeks 1-4: 10 point average
Week 6: 18 points
So, even with Wallace's one-point performance dragging the numbers down, a team's No. 1/stud receiver (it's tough to determine one between Miles Austin and Dez Bryant on Dallas -- Bryant went 30 spots higher in drafts, so we're going with him), wide receivers saw a 57 percent increase in Fantasy point output coming off a bye.
Keep in mind, this is a somewhat small sample size -- six teams coming off bye weeks early in the season -- but it does have some merit. Teams coming off their bye have extra time to prepare for an opponent, have an extra game of their opponents' to watch and exploit weaknesses and have extra days to practice, get into grooves, correct early season mistakes and work on rapport. In short, there's no guarantee, but there is some pretty decent subjective and objective reasoning and statistical evidence supporting this. Again, a quick reminder of players who fit this criteria coming off their byes this week:
QB: Jay Cutler , Drew Brees , Cam Newton , Blaine Gabbert
RB: Matt Forte , Maurice Jones-Drew , Darren Sproles / Pierre Thomas / Mark Ingram , DeAngelo Williams / Jonathan Stewart
WR: Brandon Marshall , Marques Colston , Steve Smith , Justin Blackmon
Does it help to know that you should see an uptick in production from Brandon Marshall ? Probably not. But if an owner is looking for replacement for Peyton Manning , and Jay Cutler is sitting on the wire, there's a decent chance, according to the numbers so far, that he could have a nice game as the Bears come off their bye.
Let's go back to Week 1. Remember those halcyon days of freaking
out and trying to grab Kevin Ogletree? How about throwing your hands up
for good? Here
are the 10 players who have put up the most points since somewhat down
Week 1 performances:
1. A.J. Green (7 points in Week 1, 90 points since = 83 point difference)
2. Victor Cruz (5 points in Week 1, 77 points since = 72 point difference)
3. Trent Richardson (3 in Week 1, 72 since = 69 point difference)
4. Arian Foster (19 in Week 1, 87 since = 68 point difference)
5. Wes Welker (1 in Week 1, 68 since = 67 point difference)
6. Jamaal Charles (8 in Week 1, 73 since = 65 point difference)
7. Roddy White (8 in Week 1, 68 since = 60 point difference)
8. Michael Turner (3 in Week 1, 61 since = 58 point difference)
9. Willis McGahee (6 in Week 1, 63 since = 57 point difference)
10. Marques Colston (5 in Week 1, 60 since = 55 point difference)
And here's a little more fun with numbers. We took the average Fantasy scores for players in the first three weeks and subtracted it from their average point total over the last three. What follows are the 10 players who started strong, then fell off:
1. C.J. Spiller (20.3 avg first three; 6.3 last three)
2. Andre Brown (13.3; 0.3)
3. Martellus Bennett (12; 1)
4. Santonio Holmes (9.3; 0)
5. Kevin Ogletree (10; 1)
6. Maurice Jones-Drew (14.7; 6)
7. Kevin Smith (8.7; 0)
8. Lance Moore (11.3; 3)
9. Dennis Pitta (10; 1.7)
10. Vernon Davis (13.3; 5)
A note of interest: Maurice Jones-Drew has technically lost more value than Kevin Smith , who hasn't gotten a point since Week 2. Jones-Drew had 44 points in his first three games, then produced weeks of 7 and 5 Fantasy points, respectively, before going on his bye in Week 6.
As far as the flip side to these numbers, the players who have seen the biggest value increases from the first three weeks to the last three are: Marques Colston , Ahmad Bradshaw , Jordy Nelson , Ryan Mathews , James Jones , Josh Gordon , Chris Givens , Wes Welker , Brandon Bolden , Antonio Gates , Shonn Greene , Jason Witten , Victor Cruz , Roddy White , Dez Bryant and Chris Johnson .
may be ready to break out. As far as Fantasy points go, Jackson
ranks 77th while Johnson is 82nd. Jackson has caught 29 passes for 465
yards and a touchdown while Johnson has caught 27 for 316 and three
touchdowns. But they have been targeted plenty:
Jackson's targets (weekly): 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 8
Johnson's targets (weekly): 10, 5, 11, 10, 9, 11
The targets just haven't translated into receptions:
Jackson's receptions (weekly): 4, 7, 3, 6, 4, 5
Johnson's receptions (weekly): 4, 2, 7, 2, 6, 6
Jackson has averaged 8.8 targets per week with 4.8 receptions, a conversion rate of 55 percent. Johnson has averaged 9.3 targets per week with 4.5 receptions, a conversion rate of 48 percent. Of the top 100 running backs, tight ends and wide receivers in the league this year, the conversion rate has been 64 percent, meaning both Jackson and Johnson are considerably below average. And even if you just use wide receivers, the rate for the top 100 at that position is still 60 percent. In fact, among the top 100 wide receivers in Fantasy points this season, Johnson has the 13th-lowest target conversion ratio and Jackson has the 30th-lowest. Among players with 50 or more targets they rank the lowest and third-lowest, respectively (Dwayne Bowe is second, at 51.5 percent on 66 targets). With Jackson on a bye this week, his owners may be even more willing to trade, in order to fill a possible hole in the starting lineup.
Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyFB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at email@example.com .
Our Latest Stories
Jameis Winston got a new weapon, Terrelle Pryor found a new home and Hunter Henry is ready...
Carson Wentz, Rex Burkhead and Corey Coleman are among the first group of sleepers Jamey Eisenberg...
Cam Newton and Latavius Murray are hurt, and Brandin Cooks and DeSean Jackson get a downgrade...
In this week's #fantasymail, Jamey Eisenberg looks at Cam Newton's shoulder injury and Marshawn...
Cam Newton will have offseason arthroscopic shoulder surgery, the latest setback for a much-revered...
Marshawn Lynch is contemplating a return to the NFL. Would he warrant a top-60 pick if he came...