Tricks of the trends after Week 9
What should the latest target, red zone and goal line statistics be telling you? Our Nathan Zegura breaks down the stats that should matter to every Fantasy owner in Tricks of the Trends.
How good is Aaron Rodgers ?
Well, if you look at the efficiency metrics of the 105 receivers who have seen at least 3.1 targets per game on average, you’d have to say he is other-worldly awesome. You see, when it comes to yards per target, Rodgers has the top two receivers in Jordy Nelson and James Jones at 13.9 yards per target.
He also has Greg Jennings at 11 yards per target, who is tied for 10th-best. To put into perspective just how good that is, no other team has two receivers in the top 10 let alone three.
In terms of catch rate, Rodgers is again clearly the cream of the crop. Jones is first at 80 percent (excluding Danny Amendola who played just one game), Jennings is tied for seventh at 72.7 percent and Nelson is 14th at 70.7 percent. He is the only quarterback with three receivers in the top 15 and only Drew Brees has two receivers in the top 15 (Marques Colston and Lance Moore ).
In other words, Rodgers is the most efficient quarterback in the league and even though he pushes the ball down the field all the time, his receivers are still catching more than 70 percent of their targets and are the elite in terms of yards per target.
Target observations after Week 9 ...
• Last week I highlighted how disappointing Miles Austin had been and now with his re-injured hamstring likely to keep him out two to four weeks it is time to take a look at his replacement Laurent Robinson . Since joining the Cowboys, Robinson has played very well and is coming off of back-to-back games with at least five catches and a touchdown. He is also the team’s leader at wide receiver with two games of 100-plus yards, more than Austin and Dez Bryant combined thus far. Wow. His metrics are solid as well, as Robinson has caught 72.7 percent of his targets and is averaging 11.2 yards per target -- both fourth best (tied in the case of catch rate) among the 74 receivers averaging at least five targets per game. In other words, Robinson is a great waiver pickup and someone I expect to play well with increased opportunities now that Austin is out for the Cowboys.
• Brandon Lloyd is back home with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and while he has yet to be spectacular with the Rams, Lloyd has certainly been solid. Since joining the Rams, he has seen a league-high 38 targets over the last three weeks and has produced at least five catches and seven Fantasy points in every game. He has 17 catches for 207 yards and one touchdown during the three games and if he can get his target conversion rate back over 50 percent, I expect a great stretch run for him. He is a very solid second receiver for your teams and a great third receiver as the clear top option in St. Louis.
• Antonio Brown stays on after his third straight great game in Week 9, because he is really becoming a weekly starting option for your teams. During his excellent three-game run, which just saw him post only the third 100-yard receiving game against the Ravens and the first since Week 2, Brown has arguably been as good as anyone in the NFL. He leads all receivers with 21 catches and 278 yards during that span and is second with 34 targets (trailing only Brandon Lloyd’s 38). With the Steelers becoming a decidedly pass-first team (Ben has topped 300 yards in three straight and Rashard Mendenhall has seen just 13 carries in each of those games), Brown has really benefitted as the clear second option behind Mike Wallace . With all of the defensive attention paid to Wallace, Brown has been able to beat single coverage (61.7 percent catch rate and 8.1 yards per target) and has clearly earned the trust of his quarterback. With both Emmanuel Sanders and Hines Ward banged up, Brown is going to stay very involved for the Steelers and is a great start.
• Greg Little has the dubious distinction of having seen the most targets of any pass catcher (59) without scoring a single touchdown this year. Not only has he been the least efficient scorer among all receivers, he has also been terrible in terms of yardage efficiency. Little is averaging just five yards per target, tied for second worst among the 52 receivers who have seen six targets per game. He shares the ugly five yards per target with Tampa Bay’s Mike Williams, and while both have seen plenty of looks, it has not in any way shape or form translated to Fantasy production. In his last four games, Greg Little has seen 38 targets, but has not scored a single touchdown and was held to less than 40 yards in three of them. Williams has seen 42 targets and has caught 22 passes, yet he has not scored either and has been held to less than 60 yards three times. Ugly.
• I am not sure there has been a more efficient tight end over the last three weeks than Heath Miller . Miller has caught 16 of his 18 targets for 217 yards and is leading all pass catchers (regardless of position) with an 88.9 percent catch rate and he is leading all tight ends at 12 yards per target. Miller has produced 60 yards or a score in three straight and four of his last five games, so he is on fire and is a great starting option.
• That was quite the first start for Roy Helu in Week 9. He saw 17 targets (the highest for any player since Week 4) and caught a Washington Redskins record 14 of them (also the second-highest reception total of any player this year) for 105 yards. He is now the starter and while I do not expect a check-down frenzy like this to happen again, you have to consider Helu an excellent second running back in point-per-reception formats after this performance.
• Target Leaders by position for Week 9: Wide receiver: Brandon Lloyd (13), Larry Fitzgerald (12), Vincent Jackson (12) and Denarius Moore (12); Tight end: Rob Gronkowski (15) and Antonio Gates (11); Running back: Roy Helu (17) and Mike Tolbert (9).
• Yards Per Target Leaders among qualifying players by position after Week 9: Wide receiver: Jordy Nelson (13.9) and Mike Wallace (13.6); Tight end: Jake Ballard (12.7) and Joel Dreessen (10.6); Running back: Michael Bush (10.3) and Fred Jackson (9.8)
• Worst Yards Per Target among qualifying players by position after week 9 (in other words, who did the least with the most): Wide receiver: Austin Collie (4.1) and Eddie Royal (4.2) Tight end: Marcedes Lewis (4.8) and Kellen Winslow (4.9) Running back: Beanie Wells (2.3) and Willis McGahee (2.9).
• I firmly believed that Mike Vick was going to disappoint this year when we were doing some draft preview work here and the main reason was that I felt he could not match his unbelievable efficiency or rushing touchdown totals from his 2010 record pace. Well, so far that has certainly turned out to be true. After scoring nine rushing touchdowns in 12 games last year, Vick has yet to find the end zone as a runner in 2011, which is really hurting his efficiency in scoring situations and more importantly, hurting his Fantasy value. Last year, all nine of Vick’s rushing scores came inside the red zone and contributed to his very solid 23.7 percent red zone touchdown rate (not to mention they were worth 54 Fantasy points). This year he has just a 17.3 percent red zone scoring rate, worst among the six busiest quarterbacks and third worst among the 13 busiest. He is not the most accurate or touch-oriented passer, which is needed in the red zone, and clearly Vick is struggling to finish drives as a result. It’s costing you Fantasy points.
• Cedric Benson is grinding out tough yards for the upstart Cincinnati Bengals, but he has been brutal in the red zone. Despite being fifth with 34 red zone chances, Benson has only one score inside the 20 and his 2.7 percent scoring rate is the worst among the 29 busiest backs and is second only to DeMarco Murray (who has been great so we will give him a pass on having a league-high 13 chances without a score) among the 34 busiest runners. If he can start scoring inside the 20, it will take pressure off of rookie Andy Dalton and will help the Bengals shock the world.
• Matt Forte is having an amazing season, but it could be even better if he was doing a better job in the red zone. Forte’s 4.1 percent red zone touchdown rate (one score in 25 chances) is the second worst behind Benson among the 29 busiest backs. Now, this is due in large part to Marion Barber , who stole another score last week, and who has a very efficient four red zone scores on his nine chances. Forte will need to score from deep because Barber is getting the job done in scoring situations, so he may not finish with the scoring totals we had hoped for after his fast start.
• For as crazy good as Cam Newton has been this year, his top two red zone wide receiver targets Legedu Naanee (10) and Steve Smith (seven) have combined for 17 red zone chances without a single touchdown.
• Not only does Marcedes Lewis lead all tight ends with seven targets but no touchdowns, he has not even caught a single pass inside the red zone. That is atrocious.
• Inside the opponent’s 5-yard line, the lack of rushing production is absolutely crushing Vick. Last year, Vick scored five rushing touchdowns (on six rushes) from inside the 5 and had a solid 41.7 percent goal line touchdown rate, which illustrates just how ineffective he was as a passer up close. Well, in 2011 that is all he has to go with and he has just three goal line scores on 14 passes plus rushes (he had 10 scores on 24 tries last year). His 21.4 percent goal line rate is barely better than half of what he was producing last year and is the second worst among the 11 busiest quarterbacks and fifth worst among the 28 quarterbacks with at least five chances. If it weren’t for Tony Romo’s struggles, which I documented last week, Vick would only be better than Curtis Painter , Blaine Gabbert and the injured Chad Henne . Yikes. He has to get back to scoring with his legs because teams clearly have him figured out as a passer up close.
• Josh Freeman has turned all five of his goal line chances into touchdowns this year, which is very impressive. It also highlights how bad he has been from the 6-yard line out to the 20, where he has just two scores on 39 opportunities.
• Michael Turner has a league-high 18 goal line chances and six goal line scores, so it looks like he will set the pace for the second straight year. That’s the main reason I was very confident in Turner this year -- he is a great goal line back and the Falcons give him the ball down at the stripe more often than any other team.
• I am amazed that with all of the things the New Orleans Saints can do in scoring situations -- their tail backs have a combined two scores on 10 goal line chances.
• Brandon Marshall , DeMarco Murray and Forte are the only running backs, wide receivers or tight ends who have seen four or more goal line opportunities and failed to score a single touchdown up close.
Target Conversion Rate or Catch Rate (TCR): The percentage
of a player's targets (passes thrown to them) that are converted
into receptions. Over 60 percent is excellent, 66 percent is elite
and under 52.5 percent is worrisome.
Yards per Target (YPT): A player's receiving yards divided by his targets. In other words, the numbers of yards a team gains on average every time they attempt a pass to a certain player. Over 10 is exceptional, over 8 is solid and 6 or lower is horrendous.
Red Zone Opportunities: A player's total number of pass+rush+targets inside the opponent's 20 yard line
Red Zone TD Rate: The percentage of a player's Red Zone opportunities that result in a TD
Goal Line Opportunities: A player's total number of pass+rush+targets inside the opponent's 5 yard line
Goal Line TD Rate: The percentage of a player's Goal Line opportunities that result in a TD
Consistency Rate: The percentage of quality starts a player gives you out of 16 games. For QBs that is a game with 300+ yards passing OR multiple TDs. For RBs/WRs: A game with 100+ yards rush/rec or a game with a TD. For TEs: A game with 60+ yards receiving or a TD. For a Kicker: A game with multiple FGs.
Big Game Rate: The percentage of dominant starts a player gives you out of 16 games (games missed with injury count as a bad game since they do not help your Fantasy teams). For a QB that is a game with 300+ yards and 2+ TDs or 200+ yards and 3+ TDs. For a RB/WR that is a game with 100+ combined rush/rec yards and a TD or a game with multiple TDs. For a TE that is a game of 60+ yards and a TD, 100+ yards or a game with multiple TDs.
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