Week 10 Fantasy Football Matchups

/ Senior Fantasy Writer

A long time ago a fellow NFL writer told me "Pick against the Patriots at your own peril." The advice has served me well, especially when it comes to Tom Brady . Obviously, telling you to start him in Fantasy is generally a no-brainer, but this week some people are nervous about doing it in his game against the Jets in New York. Some people will chance it with guys like Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow instead of Brady.

The statistical evidence against Brady is pretty damning. The Jets haven't allowed multiple touchdowns to anyone since Tony Romo in Week 1 (that includes Brady in Week 5). They've yielded 225 or more passing yards twice all year (Romo in Week 1, Brady in Week 5; both topped 300 yards). In four games at MetLife Stadium the Jets are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 52 percent of their passes for 209 yards per game and nine interceptions.

Brady himself has had trouble against the Jets in New Jersey since Rex Ryan has taken over. In two games Brady has completed 43 of 83 passes for 464 yards with two touchdowns, three interceptions and a fumble lost. And in Brady's six career games overall against Ryan's Jets, he's had three with two-plus touchdowns and/or 300-plus yards (and another with 299 yards), but four with at least one interception. Most importantly, in those six games he's hit the 20-point mark in standard Fantasy formats twice. He's fallen below 18 Fantasy points three times, including once already this season.

In fact, Brady's become fairly pedestrian (for him), leveling off to where he's averaged exactly 19 points over his last five games, producing fairly consistently but not at the extreme level you might think. Expecting that kind of result, even against a team he's been hit-or-miss with, especially on the road, is not out of the question.

But there's one more intangible, and it's one we've been accustomed to for a decade with the Patriots: They win a lot. And despite the fact that they're in a three-way tie in their division and have lost two straight games, they're still a prepared, functional team that -- at least offensively -- can find ways to move the chains against anyone. Brady is usually a part of that, and a good run game could help him immensely on Sunday night. If the average he'll give you is 19 points and there's room for more based on what we know and what we've seen from the Patriots when they're in big spots like this, it's hard to consider other second-tier quarterbacks. Pick against him at your own peril.

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