The race to 55: What your team needs to do to make the playoffs

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Pucks and Numbers is a weekly statistical look at what's happening around the NHL. This week: The race to 55 points in the NHL playoff race, and why more teams than you might realize are already out of the playoff race.

When teams like the Flyers and Capitals are talking about games being a must-have or a must-win at this point in the season they're not wrong.

Every year around the halfway mark we hear about teams that are five or six points out of a playoff position and thinking they still have a chance to get into the top-eight.

They probably don't. The odds certainly aren't in their favor.

While a five-point deficit might not seem like a lot with half of the season to play, teams are rarely able to make up that ground, and this is true when whether we're talking about a 48-game season or an 82-game season. We've been over this before. Last season on Dec. 20 I looked at teams that were five or more points out of a playoff spot over the previous decade at that same point in the season and found that only four of them (or just 6 percent) were able to make up that ground and qualify for a playoff spot.

Those aren't exactly great odds.

And that was at a point that was less than halfway through the season. We're at the halfway point of this season right now (a little past it for some teams) which means that mountain is getting a little taller, steeper and rockier.

Under normal circumstances (like, a season that isn't cut in half by a lockout) 95 points in the standings is usually a lock to get you into the postseason, and that's usually the number that it takes to qualify for one of the bottom seeds in either conference. If we adjust for a 48-game schedule that comes out to be 55 points to pretty much assure yourself of a playoff spot this year.

Look at where your favorite team is sitting in the standings right now and ask yourself if they can win enough games to reach that mark.

What do they need to do over the final month-and-a-half of the season? Well, let's take a look.

The tables below are broken down by conference, with teams listed in their current place in the standings. The table shows how many games they've played, how many points they have, how many points they need to reach 55, and an approximate record (give or take a couple of wins and overtime losses here and there) needed to reach that mark.

Let's keep in mind that it is, of course, possible that a team -- or maybe even two -- could qualify for the playoffs with fewer than 55 points this season which might keep one or two additional teams "in the race" at this point. But for the purpose of this exercise I'm targetting a number that should guarantee a playoff spot.

Let's start with the Eastern Conference.

(* represents division leader)

So pretty much every team below Winnipeg (and, heck, maybe even including Winnipeg) has almost no margin for error the rest of the way, and it wouldn't be major shock if the eight teams in a playoff position on March 13 are the same eight teams we see in the playoffs once April rolls around.

The one thing the Jets have going for them that nobody else on the playoff bubble has is the fact they play in the Southeast Division, which means they still have an outside shot at catching Carolina and ending up as a No. 3 seed. The problem there is Hurricanes are starting to pull away even with the absence of starting goaltender Cam Ward.

I already looked at the Flyers' playoff chances earlier this week, and when Ilya Bryzgalov says they have to win the next two games vs. New Jersey or their season is over, he's not lying.

Is there any optimism that a Capitals team that's won 10 of its first 25 can win 16 of its last 23?

And Florida. Poor Florida.

It's not impossible for some of these teams, but the odds are definitely against them.

Now let's take a look at the Western Conference.

Welcome to the 2013 playoffs, Chicago!

The Western Conference race is a little more wide open than the Eastern one at this point and has at least a couple of more teams still in the mix. But once you start getting down to Dallas, Edmonton, Columbus (even with their recent hot streak), Colorado, and Calgary ... it's probably over, guys.

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