The top 10 golfers in the world right now is a who's who list of who's favored at Augusta, as well:
Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Jason Day, Henrik Stenson, Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia, and Zach Johnson.
But how are each of these golfers playing as we barrel towards Magnolia Lane? And how have they played this tournament traditionally? How should we should rank them in terms of their chances of winning the tournament?
Here's a graph showing average finish in the last five events for each of these golfers correlated to average finish in the last five Masters for each (you want to be in the lower left of this graph):
(This is for PGA Tour events only and if you missed a cut or withdrew you got a 100th place finish as your score)
So the question here is do you gamble on guys who are hot right now but not traditionally great at Augusta? Guys like Dustin Johnson and Sergio Garcia.
Or do you place your bets on Augusta stalwarts like Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson?
Woods' average over his last five years (12th) is actually significantly worse than it has been for his entire career as a pro at Augusta (8th), which is absurd.
If I was ranking the top 10 guys most likely to win I would do it something like this:
And my goodness, how awesome would it be if Sergio won the Masters?
I think I generally value past success at a given course more than I do recent success in general. I'll put my money on Mickelson all day even though he's been struggling of late over guys who are hotter like Dustin Johnson and Garcia.
It's worth the debate, though, and in just over two and a half weeks we'll likely have a face to add to this list.