As part of the Eye on Golf Masters preview we will look at a few of the top golfers in the world and what their chances are of winning the 2014 Masters. Up first, last year's champ.
If you're betting on one golfer to win one major in 2014 there are about 25 million worse bets that you can make than Adam Scott at one of the season's big four.
Tiger Woods from the early 2000s he is not but he and Rory McIlroy are as close as you're going to get these days.
Let's take a look at where Scott stands going to Augusta.
No. 2 -- Scott moved to No. 3 for a while after winning the Masters last season (from No. 7) and then bounced around a bit before settling in at No. 2 after the PGA Championship. He's been there ever since and has a chance to take over No. 1 with a good showing at the Masters.
Per OWGR guru @GolfARob, Adam Scott will need a two-way tie for third or better at the Masters to overtake Tiger at No. 1.— Will Gray (@WillGrayGC) April 1, 2014
Odds of winning
9-1 -- He and McIlroy are the only golfers in single digits.
Why he'll win it
He's one of only two golfers who can run away from the field. You were watching Bay Hill, weren't you? A 62 on Thursday and a seven-stroke lead after the cut -- I knew he blew it in the end but he and Rory McIlroy are the most supremely talented golfers on earth right now.
If Scott can bang out two or three spectacular rounds from the start he can avoid the mischief that comes with the second nine on Sunday.
Why he won't win it
We've only seen three back-to-back winners in golf history and two of them are the two best golfers who ever lived (Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods). The third (Nick Faldo) is somebody whose career Scott could eventually end up emulating but he's got a long way to go.
It's just too difficult to go back-to-back at any major, especially this one. Sure, he might put himself in position once again but think about the number of things that have to bounce your way in the end. Heck, think about the end of last year. What if Scott doesn't bang in that insane putt (that he probably makes one out of 10 times) on No. 18 to get to the playoff.
The number of things working against you at these tournaments is staggering.
After calling the first cut at Augusta the "rough" in this Golf.com article, Scott said this about the reply from Augusta National now that he's an honorary member.
"I'll get a rap over the knuckles for calling it rough."
Stat you should know
In the last five years only Tiger Woods and Angel Cabrera have a better average finish than Scott's 16th of those who have played in all five Masters.
Recently at Augusta...
Recently on the PGA Tour...
Scott has played in five tournaments this year and finished top 25 in all of them. That includes four top 12s and three top eights.
It's difficult for me to see Scott finishing outside the top 10 at this year's Masters. He was top five at the final two majors last season and seems like he's cracked the code at the big ones.
I don't think he'll win for reasons outlined above but give me any odds on a top-10 finish and I'll take them.