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The outlook for the US in the Ryder Cup is not pretty

By Kyle Porter | Golf Writer

Rickie Fowler will likely be on the Ryder Cup team. (Getty Images)
Rickie Fowler will likely be on the Ryder Cup team. (Getty Images)

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We need to talk about the Ryder Cup.

I don't want to talk about the Ryder Cup and after you read this you're going to wish I hadn't talked about the Ryder Cup, but we need to.

Gleneagles is just over three months away and the teams are starting to take shape.

Remember, nine golfers on each team qualify by earning points from various golf tournaments throughout the year and three are picked by the captains (Tom Watson and Paul McGinley).

Here's a look at the US team points race right now and the chances I give each golfer of being on the team come October.

US Ryder Cup hopefuls
GolferRankChances
Bubba Watson1100 percent
Jimmy Walker299 percent
Dustin Johnson3100 percent
Matt Kuchar4100 percent
Jordan Spieth599 percent
Jim Furyk695 percent
Rickie Fowler785 percent
Jason Dufner880 percent
Patrick Reed950 percent
Phil Mickelson1099 percent
Chris Kirk1140 percent
Zach Johnson1280 percent
Harris English1350 percent
Kevin Na1425 percent
Brendon Todd1520 percent

Oh boy.

The points race is a semi-complicated formula that involves earning points for every $1,000 earned on tour. Majors count double -- you can read more here. Essentially, though, a guy like Rickie Fowler is about $1 million ahead of Mickelson. So if Mickelson plays in and wins a tournament Fowler isn't playing in then Mickelson would leap over him.

I put 99 percent for Lefty, though, because even if he doesn't make the team on points he'll almost certainly be a captain's pick.

Those other names, though, yikes. Are we realy going to take Kevin Na, Brendon Todd, Chris Kirk, and Patrick Reed over to Scotland for a massacre?

And the ones at the top don't exactly inspire. This will be Jimmy Walker's first appearance and Jordan Spieth's as well.

The interesting thing is going to be who Watson uses his three picks on. Tiger Woods is currently 67th in Ryder Cup points so that's not happening and if he's healthy you have to think Watson will pick him.

Watson really needs Mickelson to qualify in points so he doesn't have to pick him. You also have names like Webb Simpson, Keegan Bradley, and Ryan Moore lurking just outside the top 15.

To me the ideal situation is Mickelson or Johnson jumping inside the top nine, picking the other, taking Tiger, and then picking one of Simpson, Bradley, and Snedeker.

I'm also glad that Fowler is firmly in the conversation now. He'll be useful and won't be scared of anybody from Europe.

There's a lot of time left, though. Erik Compton just jumped from 59th to 19th based on his second-place performance at the US Open so you could conceivably see somebod like Jason Bohn (36th) or Chris Stroud (39th) win a major and vault into the automatic nine group.

On to the Europeans.

European Ryder Cup hopefuls
GolferRankChances
Victor Dubuisson1100 percent
Thomas Bjorn290 percent
Henrik Stenson3100 percent
Jamie Donaldson499 percent
Rory McIlroy5100 percent
Martin Kaymer6100 percent
Sergio Garcia799 percent
Luke Donald895 percent
Justin Rose999 percent
Joost Luiten1080 percent
Ian Poulter1190 percent
Miguel Angel Jimenez1280 percent
Stephen Gallacher1370 percent
Gonazlo Fernandez-Castano1440 percent
Francesco Molinari1550 percent

The European points race is a little bit more wonky -- there are actually two lists on which you can qualify then the three captain's picks are made after that (see here).

The European team is actually a bit more stable right now. Of the guys in the top nine, most have played in a Ryder Cup before and the captain's picks are easy when Poulter is just outside automatically qualifying.

The interesting part will be where Graeme McDowell and Lee Westwood finish up. They're both just outside this list and McGinley will have some tough decisions to make if they drop any further.

This team is just loaded, too. I mean loaded. When Justin Rose is borderline to automatically make the suqad, you know you've got it going on. Goodness.

Somehow you can bet on the European team at -110 at the moment so you might want to go put the deed to your house on that.

For more golf news, rumors and analysis, follow @EyeOnGolf and @KylePorterCBS on Twitter or Google+ and like us on Facebook.

 
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