My last expert picks of the season for a major are sure to lead you down the right path. I went with Matt Kuchar for the Masters, Charl Schwartzel for the US Open (yeesh), and Sergio Garcia for the British Open (my only good one).
So yeah, take these with a grain of salt (or the entire saltshaker).
Winner: Marc Leishman (40-1)
I know it's not sexy but I'm going to be walking around like this if he actually wins the thing as a 40-1 favorite.
Leishman has been top 11 in four of his past five PGA Tour events and six of his past eight. He's a birdie machine who finished T5 at the British Open and T12 at the PGA Championship last year at Oak Hill.
Don't be fooled by the lack of star power in his name, he's a beast on the course.
Lock for top 10: Adam Scott (11-1)
Copy/paste from the rest of the season. Scott is your best bet to consistently finish inside the top 10 or top five at major championships. Don't believe me? How about top 10s in nine of his past 15 dating back to the 2011 Masters. Lock that down.
Sleeper: Robert Karlsson (100-1)
Karlsson finished T4 at this tournament in 2011, got cut the next year, and didn't play last year so he's a bit of a wild card but that's what you want from a sleeper, right?
He's coming off a T12 at the British Open and finished top 10 in three of his five tournaments on the European Tour before that one. I don't love him at this track but I don't love any of the golfers with 100-1 odds, really. He might be the best of the bunch.
Low American: Jordan Spieth
Rickie Fowler's reign of terror is over (temporarily). These two will battle for the next several years and it will be everything we want it to be.
Prop you should bet
Bubba Watson to miss the cut (+250). He has missed the past two major cuts since his Masters win and you would think the golf gods will not take his long-drive contest rant lightly. Still, this is a long course which suits him nicely which is why the number is so high. It's worth a flier if you ask me, though.
Top 5 picks
5. Ryan Moore
Winning score: 268
In 2000 it was 270 (Tiger) but that course was playing as a par 72. This year's version is a par 71 so you only need to get to 16 under to post 268. The over/under, by the way, is 270.5.