Ranking the top 20 US Open favorites

It would be unfair to rank every golfer in the US Open field like we did for the Masters because, well let's be honest, with nearly half the spots going to random qualifiers we aren't as familiar with this field as we are at Augusta.

That makes for some great stories but some really poor prognosticating.

We can, however, take a look at who I think are the 20 golfers with the best chance of winning this year (and their odds from Bovada).

From Rory McIlroy to Zach Johnson this is how I would rank them.

1. Rory McIlroy (10-1 odds): It's a big if but if he can erase that one leaky round that's been killing him he can win this tournament by four shots. He might be the only golfer in the field who can say that.

2. Phil Mickelson (14-1): [Throws hands up in air, completely flabbergasted]. Lefty has zero top 10s this season and I'm supposed to believe he's going to win not one, but as he insinuated recently "at least one" US Open? He'll probably win by 10.

3. Jason Dufner (40-1): One of two golfers to have top fives at two of the last three US Opens and the only golfer to top five at each of the last two. With his recent form (second at Colonial) there's no reason he should be 40-1.

4. Sergio Garcia (33-1): This might be me wanting it to happen more than it actually is likely to happen but Sergio has been 1. Good at US Opens and 2. Really good this season. He also finished T3 at Pinehurst in 2005 and is the only golfer from the top 10 that year to play the tournament this year.

5. Bubba Watson (18-1): He hasn't been stellar here in the past (one top 10) but he might be playing the best golf on the planet right now. It's his decision-making that worries me.

6. Adam Scott (12-1): The No. 1 player in the world has exactly zero top 10s at the US Open. That's stunning.

7. Matt Kuchar (25-1): His form hasn't been ideal lately but I trust him at majors. He's only missed two cuts since 2009.

8. Graeme McDowell (40-1): He might not get the love he's due at US Opens. Won in 2010, T14 in 2011, and T2 in 2012. Let's just ignore the cut he missed at Merion last season.

9. Jason Day (28-1): Two top twos in the last three US Opens. He would be in my top five if not for that wrist injury that's been bugging him all year. He's only played four tournaments since January. Still, he's a big-tourney hunter and this is as big as tournaments get.

10. Lee Westwood (33-1): I feel like Westwood will be contending at majors until he's 80. Three top 10s in his last six outings at this tournament and you know his ball-striking will be at a premium.

11. Justin Rose (25-1): It's too hard to go back-to-back. There's a reason Curtis Strange said this recently about his 25-year-old record (he did it in 1988-1989):

"But the farther it goes, you know, the more proud I get of it. I get I was very, very fortunate I was in the right place at the right time. It's exciting. It's nice to talk about it every year."

12. Charl Schwartzel (50-1): My pick this year. Finished T9 in 2011 and has been in the top 15 two of the last three years. Has also been top 15 in three of his last four PGA Tour events.

13. Henrik Stenson (25-1): I just don't see it with the Swede. He's Westwood 2.0 at majors to me. And he hasn't even been as good as Westwood. His only top 10 at this tournament was a ninth-place back in 2009.

14. Hideki Matsuyama (40-1): He's a killer and he's proven that he doesn't know better at big-boy tournaments. Didn't need his driver to win the Memorial and finished T10 at Merion last season.

15. Martin Kaymer (40-1): Wait, Martin Kaymer is 40-1?! That new swing of his was grooved for Opens and he's only been cut once at this tournament. Had a top 10 in 2010.

16. Rickie Fowler (66-1): T10 at Merion and is coming off a top 15 at the St. Jude Classic. He's been a tough out at majors the last three years, including that T5 at Augusta in April.

17. Billy Horschel (80-1): I'm not sure if he has another 18-for-18 on greens in regulation round in him this year but I legitimately think he could win. Was T4 at Merion.

18. Dustin Johnson (33-1): I just can't stop thinking about that 104 he shot in the final round at Pebble Beach when he led after 54 holes in 2010. Still, with the rough removed, his length will behoove him more than usual.

19. Jordan Spieth (25-1): File this under "I need to see him do it once before I'm convinced." At 25-1 I hate him as a pick and if he struggles with his emotions at the Masters and Players Championshi, what's going to happen after his first five-putt on these greens?

20. Zach Johnson (50-1): I wanted to pick ZJ this week but his history at this event has been hideous. Zero top 25s and only five cuts made in 10 attempts.

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