The 2015-16 PGA Tour season ended about three days ago, but it is already time to gear up for the 2016-17 season. That's right, a new season kicks off this week in Napa, California and with it comes a host of new faces, a few old favorites and several new storylines.
Let's take a look at this week's Safeway Open.
What: Safeway Open | Where: Carmel, Indiana | When: Oct. 13-16
How to watch (all times ET):
TV: Golf Channel (Thursday-Friday from 4-8 p.m., Saturday and Sunday from 5-8 p.m.)
Participants and odds
- Paul Casey: 10-1
- Matt Kuchar: 12-1
- Phil Mickelson: 14-1
- Emiliano Grillo: 18-1
- Justin Thomas: 20-1
- Jon Rahm: 22-1
- Kevin Na: 25-1
- Bill Haas: 35-1
- Brendan Steele: 40-1
- Jason Kokrak: 40-1
- Roberto Castro: 40-1
Field strength: C+
This is actually not a bad field for a fall event. It went from an "A-" to a "C+" though with Tiger Woods exiting stage left on Monday. Phil Mickelson provides some pop, however, and Justin Thomas, Emiliano Grillo, Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm touch it off with some young star power.
Story to watch: Who gets the first win of the 2016-17 season. Since the wraparound season started in 2013-2014, each of the three winners of this event has gone on to finish in the top 20 in the Tour Championship the next calendar year (some 11 months away). It is clear that winning here is a harbinger of big things to come throughout a season. Plus the FedEx Cup points (500 of them) and cash prize for winning ($1.1 million) don't hurt either.
Past winners
- 2015: Emiliano Grillo
- 2014: Sang-Moon Bae
- 2013: Jimmy Walker
- 2012: Jonas Blixt
- 2011: Bryce Molder
A good list of strong young players (sans Walker who is older). This event is exciting because of the fresh crop of young studs who are trying to break into the Tour and make a name for themselves. Look at three of the last four winners. Grillo, Bae and Blixt have all gone on to have a good amount of success in major championships and the FedEx Cup.
Let's look at the picks this week.
Expert Picks (Kyle Porter)
| Player | Pick | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
 | Winner | Justin Thomas is, for my money, the best player in the Safeway Open. He is not the most accomplished or hottest golfer, but he is the best. And it would be no surprise to see someone who finished in the top five here last year win to kick off the new season. Odds: 20-1 |
 | Top 10 | Paul Casey does not usually play this event because he has traditionally been a European Tour player, but he had an amazing ending to his 2015-16 PGA Tour season with three top fives in his last three playoff events. Possibly the hottest golfer in the field this week. Odds: 10-1 |
 | Sleeper | Grayson Murray had an amazing Web.com Tour finals. He finished in the top 10 in four of his final seven events, including a win three weeks ago at the Nationwide Children's Hospital Championship. Riding a heater. Odds: 66-1 |
| Player | Pick | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
 | Winner | These early fall tournaments to open the season tend to be the spots where a young player earns his first win. Jon Rahm is the young player in this field that I feel has the best game and is ready to earn that first win. Rahm was great closing out the 2016 season to earn his PGA Tour card and I think he starts the year off with a big performance. Odds: 22-1 |
| | Top 10 | I like Thomas to be a top 10 lock for all the reasons Kyle noted. He's super talented, had played well here before and it's not an exceptional field. Odds: 20-1 |
 | Sleeper | Harold Varner III has a lot of game and when he turns it on, he can contend in tournaments. He had seven top 25s and four top 10s this past season, and I look for him to take a step forward this season and get off to a good start in Napa. Odds: 125-1 |
