Why talk of Tiger Woods reaching 19 majors is absurd
You think Tiger Woods has Phil Mickelson's entire career left in him? Really?
Ok folks, let's be rational for a minute about Tiger Woods.
I know that's difficult for some of you because we love hyperbole and love to project that Tiger will either win all of the majors or none of the majors left in his career.
I'm here for your rehabilitation -- here to console you and tell you that yes, there is a middle ground in there somewhere.
Let's go find it.
First, we have to start with the fact that Tiger Woods has 14 major championships. The person he's chasing (Jack Nicklaus) has 18. That means for the rest of his professional life Woods must win four majors to tie and five to surpass Nicklaus' total.
Here's why that won't happen.
Do you realize how ridiculous winning five majors is in a career?
Here's the list of golfers who have done it since the early 1900s:
Phil Mickelson, Seve Ballesteros, Byron Nelson, and Peter Thomson. That's it, that's all of them.
The average career length for those four golfers? Nearly 27 years.
How many good years does Woods have left? Let's be super generous and say 12. Let's say he's really good until he's about 50. Again, given his recent injury history, I'd say that's generous.
So what you're saying when you say Tiger can get to 19 majors is that he will perform at the level, on average, that Byron Nelson, Phil Mickelson, and Seve Ballesteros did over the course of their entire careers in the next 12 years.
Get out of here with that.
It would be one thing if Woods was the Superhuman Woods from 2001 but he's not. Right now he's a very, very good golfer who wins a lot of tournaments and can absolutely win more majors.
But it would take a superhuman golfer to win a Mickelson career worth of majors over the course of 12 years when the majority of those are in his 40s.
Which is why it's not going to happen.
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