"There are a number of ideas on the table, but they are all focused on one key objective -- make sure the Tour Championship is relevant to the FedEx Cup," Dennis said.
Somewhere in the tour catacombs, some dude with an abacus is moving numbers around, trying to find the proper solution to a system that was decidedly anticlimactic the first two seasons. Dennis said he was watching a news show on TV last weekend in which a relevant phrase was uttered as it relates to statistics, which clearly have had their limitations on the tour playoff system.
"Because trying to predict human behavior is impossible," Dennis laughed, repeating the message.
Last year, Woods won two of the four FedEx events and was second in another, letting all the air out of the final round of the Atlanta event. This year, Vijay Singh needed only to play four rounds at the finale to collect the $10 million bonus and at times barely seemed awake as he strolled home to collect his ordained prize.
Among the handful of new FedEx models under review, some have already been trotted out for public inspection. In fact, some came from the public, period. In broad brush strokes, the plans under consideration include:
The match-play model: One sure-fire way to ensure that the Tour Championship is meaningful on Sunday of the final round would be to implement a seeded match-play format after 36 or 54 holes. But the pitfalls are considerable. The final match for $10 million might not produce two marquee names and might be closed out by the 12th or 13th hole. The networks, primarily NBC Sports, forked over too much rights-fee cash to be stuck with 90 minutes of dead air.
The Chamblee model: First espoused by Golf Channel analyst and former tour player Brandel Chamblee, his spin calls for the 72-hole stroke-play event to be staged to end on Saturday, with an 18-hole shootout for the $10 million held the following day featuring a handful of the top points earners. This plan ensures that the 72-hole tournament isn't diminished and creates additional drama Sunday, although if one player goes low, it risks being a runaway no matter what the tour does. Moreover, if a player finishes eighth in each of the four FedEx events and qualifies for the Sunday shootout, then fires a 65 and wins, does that player truly deserve the $10 million? If four players make the Sunday final, the difference between first and fourth could be a couple of shots -- and a difference of $8.5 million in bonus money. Is that fair? "Do we really want to go that route?" Dennis asked. "I don't know."
The Sports Illustrated model: This particular design was unveiled in a recent story by one of the magazine's golf writers and calls for the four FedEx series events to be an aggregate affair. In other words, the guy with the lowest score over 16 rounds wins the grand prize, sort of like NASCAR runs the Sprint Cup competitions with cumulative points over 10 season-ending races. The same limitations above hold -- a player could win the prize without winning one of the four FedEx events. A player caught in bad weather could unduly suffer compared to others, etc. Mind you, the FedEx points champion receives a whopping five-year tour exemption, so it had better not be a fluky, undeserving winner.
The Draconian model: That's Dennis' term, and it fits. Some revisionists have proposed throwing out the points after the third FedEx event and having the Tour Championship finale stand as a 30-man free-for-all, with everybody starting out with a clean slate. This scenario, of course, means anything accomplished over the season, or the first three FedEx series events, would be rendered moot.
These aren't the only models being kicked around, Dennis said. But each has obvious strengths and nearly as many limitations, plus a few nobody can possible dope out. For two years, much time and many brain cells have been expended plotting out the possible permutations, but in both 2007-08, the FedEx race was effectively decided before the final lap was run because of a weird confluence of kismet. In other words, there surely are design weaknesses in the 2009 proposals none of us have considered, too.
"If there's one thing we have learned, it's that if there's something that can happen that will screw you up, it probably will," Dennis said.
Just as important, there are some lynchpins that needn't be pulled, such as maintaining the Tour Championship's credibility as a free-standing event. Though Singh wrecked the FedEx bonus tension with stellar play two weeks earlier, the final round of the Atlanta tournament -- featuring a tight back-nine race between 20-something stars Camilo Villegas, Anthony Kim, Sergio Garcia and 2000 event winner Phil Mickelson -- was one of the best tournaments of the season.
"No matter what we decide to do, you have to be careful not to throw the baby out with the bathwater," Dennis said.
The FedEx is still a toddler, to be sure, but one with a solid ceiling. The series has indisputably brought together the game's top players at a point on the calendar where they were beginning their offseason hibernation periods in the past. But finding a playoff panacea that ensures a meaningful finale in Atlanta without raising competitive red flags of concern elsewhere seems nigh-on impossible. In Vegas terms, putting some sequins on this sequence without rolling some dice doesn't appear easy.
Rest assured, there's surely a show-biz element to the tour's fateful series. The ratings must improve. Comedy must morph into drama. Stars must have big roles.
If Finchem can sell the PAC on one of these options Tuesday, ratify the alterations via the Policy Board on Nov. 10 and have the fixes in place before the 2009 season begins, his next engagement should be played while spinning plates on sticks in the main room at Circus Circus.
Because it would stand as one of the best balancing acts in history.
