Expert Picks: Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Each week during the official PGA Tour season, CBSSports.com's Steve Elling identifies nine players to watch in three distinct categories -- favorites, tweeners and long shots. The picks are based on a combination of homework, guesswork and just plain instinct. Odds cited courtesy of Golfodds.com and Las Vegas Hotel and Casino.

At Pebble Beach Golf Links, par 72.

Favorites
	Dustin Johnson This comes with a three-sized caveat. While Johnson has two victories at Pebble Beach in his short career, he’s been a complete non-factor at his first three starts of 2012 after offseason knee surgery. Tread carefully, no pun intended. Odds: (20/1)
	Phil Mickelson We’ve ignored him over his past two starts, thank goodness, because he’s been all over the road this year and had to fly in his swing coach midway through last week for a quick fix. Seems to have helped. Odds: (20/1)
	Tiger Woods Don’t act like this is such a no-brainer. It’s been 10 months since Woods was listed in our picks as a favorite to win, and we were right. But his recent form and past success at Pebble Beach might make him the best man on the board, given Johnson’s 2012 struggles. Odds: (5/1)

Under the Radar
	Bryce Molder A winner last year in nearby San Jose, Molder is one of only three players entered who has finished in the top 10 at Pebble in 2010-11. Already has three top-15 finishes this season and has climbed to No. 101 in world ranking. Odds: (25/1)
	Spencer Levin He was a runaway 54-hole leader last week at Phoenix, taking a six-shot lead into Sunday, where it all unraveled. But his form is solid and he was T4 here last year. He’s a native NorCal kid who won a state amateur title at Pebble, too. Odds: (30/1)
	John Huh They call him Johnny Question Mark because of his last name. More like an exclamation point. Huh has been tearing it up the past two weeks, rookie season or not. Three new courses might be tough to learn this week, though. Odds: (80/1)

Dark Horses for Courses
	Tom Gillis We admit it. We could not pick Tom Gillis out of a police lineup of dudes named Tom Gillis. But along with Mickelson and Molder, Gillis is the only other player with top-10s at Pebble over the past two years. Odds: (No line)
	D.J. Trahan After finishing No. 125 in earnings last year, Trahan wants to secure his card with less angst this time around. He finished fourth last week in Phoenix and posted top-10 finished in 2009-10 at Pebble. Odds: (60/1)
	Hunter Mahan Really, Mahan, a dark horse? Yeah, mostly because he won’t know what day it is until, perhaps, Thursday or Friday. He played at Torrey Pines, flew 12 time zones to compete in Qatar last week, and now is back in California again for this event. Odds: (20/1)