Fantasy Insider offers insight at Kapalua

By The Fantasy Insider
PGATOUR.COM Contributor

To borrow from the vernacular of Kenny Perry's beloved sport of drag racing, all you golf Fantasy fanatics out there know how you want to start 2004: Get the revs up high, watch for the green, pop the clutch and hold on tight as you race to victory in week one.

What you don't want to do is see the front end fly up, flip over and crash into the guardrail, while the guy in the office down the hall laughs and talks trash at you for a whole week -- until you get a chance to atone in week two.

So accept some friendly counsel from The Fantasy Insider, a fearless forecaster of favorable golf fortunes.

Fast starts? Get your fill of fast starters for 2004 and fix that Fantasy lineup before Wednesday's deadline for this week's Mercedes Championships.

Now, the Gods of Fantasy do not always look fondly on the fine art of prognostication. Picking winners can be harder than hitting a two-iron out of British Open rough.

But alas, we fearlessly go where no man has gone before. Throughout 2004, we'll be here for you every Tuesday, to guide you through two games -- TOUR Fantasy and Captain's Choice (formerly the Charity Challenge) -- and into the winner's circle. Unless our picks are so bad that we get fired. Then you're on your own, pal.

As for fast starters to consider seriously at this week's season-opening Mercedes Championships, look no further than defending champion Ernie Els and Masters champion Mike Weir.

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The Big Easy merely won the Mercedes Championships last year and the Sony Open in Hawaii a week later to become bigger than Don Ho in the islands.

In 2002, Els won the second event he entered, the Ford Championship at Doral. In 2001, he finished fourth, third and third in his first trio of events. In 2000, he was second (in a playoff) at the Mercedes Championships and fifth at the Sony Open in Hawaii. In 1999, he won his first event, the Nissan Open, and tied for third two weeks later at Doral. I could go on and on, but you get the picture here.

Els' value in your $1 million salary cap for five player picks is $392,000, the fifth-ranked salary. It says here it's money well spent.

As for Weirsy, everyone knows he started like a Canadian ice-fishing hut on fire last year.

In fact, his chance to win Player of the Year honors was probably hurt by the fact that his wins all came early in the year. But fast starts? Consider his first four events: He tied for ninth at the FBR Open, won the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic, third at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and racked up another win at the Nissan Open. As 2003 was a gutsy comeback year for Weir, 2004 will see the determined lefty trying to prove he belongs in the same sentence as Woods, Els, Singh and Love.

Weir goes for $315,000 in salary this week (or $407,000 Cdn), a veritable bargain. You almost cannot afford not to have him in your lineup.

Other fast starters (and their salary values) to watch at the Mercedes Championships:

-- Vijay Singh ($527,000) is known more as a strong year-end finisher and perennial threat to win the season-ending TOUR Championship. But heck, there were no holes in Singh's 2003 season. He was fourth at last year's Mercedes, before winning the FBR Open two weeks later. The man was hotter than Katie Holmes all season long, and won the money title. He could be a no-brainer again here.

-- How about fast Jimmy Furyk ($429,000)? The U.S. Open champion had eight top-10 finishes in his first 10 events of 2003. Ouch. And he has home fairway advantage, with his new house in Kapalua.

-- Davis Love III ($406,000) didn't just start fast in 2003; there were flames shooting out of his body. In his first nine events, he had three wins and a tie for second. Sure, his bus with the flatscreen TVs won't be in Hawaii with him, but his game will.

-- Chad Campbell ($305,000) had a pair of seconds last March, at the Chrysler Classic of Tuscon and and the Honda Classic, before finishing sixth at THE PLAYERS Championship. But more importantly, the big Texan won THE TOUR Championship to end the season. He feels he belongs. Smart Fantasy players will watch this guy in '04.

-- Retief Goosen ($263,000), the enigmatic South African who speaks with his game, was fourth at the Mercedes last year, 20th at the Sony Open in Hawaii, and then third the next week at the FBR Open. Go for the goose.

-- Tiger Woods ($550,000). Need I say more? He won his first event last year coming off knee surgery, then won again with food poisoning so bad that his lunch was strewn across several golf holes. This guy doesn't just start fast; he finishes fast: He's fast in the middle of the race -- heck, he looks fast even when he takes a week or two off.

HUNCH PICKS

• John Huston ($239,000) can either win the Mercedes Championships or blow it out. He's so talented -- and so streaky.

• Darren Clarke ($204,000) is spending more time on this side of the pond, lads, and he can flat-out play when he's on his game.

• Adam Scott ($107,000) is the salary bargain of the century. He's like a Boxing Day sale; get him while he lasts at this price.

• Scott Hoch ($22,500) is battling back from injuries, but he won early last year.

INJURY REPORT

• David Toms (wrist injury) will miss the Mercedes Championships. Me, I'd miss Hawaii.

FANTASY FACTORS

•It has rained like pineapples at Kapalua in recent days, so long hitters won't enjoy as much of an advantage. It will be target golf until things firm up on the weekend.

•Voluntary USGA driver testing begins at Kapalua this week.

•Two players, Peter Jacobsen, and Craig Stadler, qualified for the event with wins in 2003 and now, in 2004, are members of the Champions Tour. This means they will be eligible to pick in PGATOUR.COM's new Fantasy Game, Captain's Choice. Captain's Choice begins when the Champions Tour season kicks off Jan. 19-25 with the MasterCard Championship in Hawaii.