Blog Entry

Buying Selvin Young

Posted on: October 4, 2008 1:10 pm
Edited on: October 4, 2008 8:07 pm

One year ago today, Denver Broncos starting running back Travis Henry was leading the NFL in rushing yards.  Indeed, a cocaine dealer was leading the league in rushing.  Now he is in jail, and his replacement, a truly talented player, can be found on the waiver wire in numerous fantasy leagues, and Project Halo smells a buying opportunity.

That player’s name is Selvin Young. And despite being a more talented back than Henry, fantasy rookies and experts alike are selling Selvin four games into the season. Here's what those experts said this week:

Damon Hack from Sports Illustrated labeled Young one of this year's most disappointing fantasy players saying, "He's Denver's leading rusher, but Young has gotten the ball on a mere 35.6% of Denver's running plays this year, with Andre Hall taking away carries and, even worse, Michael Pittman stealing scores near the goal line."

CBS Sports wrote, "It seems the Broncos are just fine with a three-headed back and Young won't get goal-line carries, either. He still always has the chance to break a long run but he's looking like a weaker and weaker Fantasy option with each successive week."

During weeks 3-5, Project Halo recommends sifting through the players that the experts are downgrading and fellow owners are dumping in search of undervalued assets.  In these early weeks, many fantasy players jump to conclusions despite a small sample size of games played, which provides opportunities for more rational fantasy players to exploit. But many players on a scrap heap are there for good reason, so while you are reviewing buying opportunities, ask the following questions:

1. Is the player's starting job in jeopardy?
2. What is this player's overall skill set?
3. How potent is the offensive system that he plays in?
4. Is he being put in a position to make big plays?
5. How good is this player's quarterback?
6. Is the player having off-the-field issues?
7. Is the player hurt or injured?

After asking these questions, it is understandable that fantasy owners would be putting Torry Holt (bad QB, bad offensive system), Plaxico Burress (off-the-field issues), Jeremy Shockey (injured hernia), Donald Driver (declining skills, hurt QB), Carson Palmer (bad elbow, impotent offense), Steven Jackson (bad QB, few big play opportunities), Chris Perry (job in jeopardy), or Darren McFadden (bad toe, bad QB, impotent offense) on the block.

Now let's take a look at Selvin Young through the prism of those 7 important questions:

1. He is in no in danger of losing his job, because he is better all-around and healthier than the alternatives.  Michael Pittman is well past his prime; Andre Hall is less talented and currently has a bad wrist; Ryan Torain is not an overly talented athlete, evidenced by his 4.64 forty yard dash at the Combine. And like most rookies, Ryan is well behind the curve with pass protection and will be a non-factor this year.
2. Selvin Young is sporting an impressive 6.2 yards per carry this season.  His speed is compared to Willie Parker, and his strength is compared to Thomas Jones. He has respectable hands and has improved his pass blocking. Texas coaches have commented that he was the more talented running back on the Longhorns, not Cedric Benson.
3. Denver is leading the NFL in total yards with 436 per game.
4. Denver has a good, but not great offensive line that runs screen and stretch plays very effectively, which provides Young with numerous opportunities to break runs and score touchdowns.
5. Jay Cutler currently ranks amongst the top 3 quarterbacks in the NFL.
6. Selvin has not experienced any off-the-field issues.
7. He is 100% healthy.

Given the data presented, Project Halo believes that Young is the best buying opportunity of the season.  He can be acquired at this point in the season for close to nothing and will begin producing significant fantasy points in the near term. Run, don't walk, to your fellow owner or nearest waiver wire and grab a Selvin Young.


Since: May 20, 2008
Posted on: October 14, 2008 6:24 pm

Buying Selvin Young

It's no big deal.  Sammy Morris got 12, Warrick Dunn got 12, and Derrick Ward got 10.  I could have gotten zero and still won so it's all good.

Since: Apr 6, 2008
Posted on: October 14, 2008 11:56 am

Buying Selvin Young

Is it too late to say Ward?

Since: May 20, 2008
Posted on: October 12, 2008 1:24 am

I agree with you Boozers

Cedric Benson may be leading my voting, but he's at the bottom of my options.  I'm going with either Hall, Ward, or Morris.

Since: Aug 24, 2008
Posted on: October 12, 2008 12:37 am

Buying Selvin Young

GrizzlyLusk44.  You didn't tell PH who was leading in your poll.  Cedric Benson if I recall correctly.  The least likely of all your picks. I just don't get it.  I found it funny when I suggested Hall, I got blasted by 2s. 

ProjectHalo.  Halls going to have a great game.  I've been following him since preseason and thought he could have been the starter.  I'm selling Selvin Young and buying Hall.

Since: May 20, 2008
Posted on: October 11, 2008 10:20 pm

Buying Selvin Young

I forgot to say I also have these guys available:

Cedric Benson

Derrick Ward

Darren Sproles

Are any of these guys a better option?  I personnaly hate Benson, but for some odd reason a lot of the people I talk to think he's going to be dominent even though he never has been.

Since: Apr 6, 2008
Posted on: October 11, 2008 7:14 pm

Sam the Man

Dunn is done.  Taylor gets too few touches.

Hall has lots of upside and could go for 100 and a touch vs. JAX.

But Sammy will be leading that Pats ground game, especially with Maroney and Jordan hurt.  It's looking to be a high scoring game @ SD and Morris should have an outstanding game.

Since: May 20, 2008
Posted on: October 9, 2008 11:49 am

Buying Selvin Young

Glad I could break the story for you HP.  If you don't mind I have a quick question for you.

I'm currently 4-1 and have a pretty solid team, but this week I'm in a little trouble with Westbrooks injury.  I think there is a good chance he plays, but if he doesn't play I need your advice on who I should start.  If Westbrook starts my 2 will obviously be Brandon Jacobs and Westbrook, but I will be one short if Westbrook doesn't start.  I'm fortunate enough to have a lot of RB's on my bench to choose from, but the problem is none of them are high caliber and you seem like you know what your talking about when it comes to these guys.  My options are:

Warrick Dunn VS CAR

Andre Hall VS JAC

Sammy Morris @ SD

Chester Taylor VS DET

I know who I'm leaning towards, but would definitly like your opinion on the matter, Thanks!

Since: Apr 6, 2008
Posted on: October 9, 2008 10:49 am

Buying Selvin Young

We have strong reservations about whether Pittman can be a primary back in the NFL.  Hall, on the other hand, could be a terrific option this week and easily outscore Pittman.

R.I.P. Selvin Young

Since: May 20, 2008
Posted on: October 8, 2008 8:57 pm

Buying Selvin Young

I believe that  now, I will try to pull a ProjectHalo.  Young has probably lost his chance at more carries with his groin injury, and so know I say it's time to grab Andre Hall.  He was the back-end of the 3 headed monster, that is now down to 2!  If you think about it, there were about 30 touches by the RB's last week in Denver and 7 of then were by Hall.  Now with only 2 RB's, Hall is likely to get 13-15 touches a game, and eventually will take the goalline as he can score from there better the Young.

Since: Apr 6, 2008
Posted on: October 5, 2008 1:12 pm

Fair Point

Fair Point - trading Forte for Young was going to far.  It will be interesting to see if SY can outscore MF for the remainder of the season.

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