Blog Entry

Fantasy Football Draft Strategies

Posted on: December 24, 2008 12:38 pm
Edited on: December 28, 2008 5:21 pm
 

Just wondering how your draft strategy worked at the end of the season.  I’ve played in 5 leagues last year but cut it down to 3 this year.  To make it interesting I tried out 3 different draft strategies.  The first strategy I used was the Stud Running Back Theory (SRBT).  This is self explanatory as you pick the best RB available, ect.  The Second strategy I used was the best player available based on their projected Scoring Value (SV).  This may also be known as Value Based Drafting.  The final theory I used was the “X” factor.  This theory takes into account the projected scoring and past history over the last three season to come up with an average SV.  Then for example at QB, it assumes there are 12 starting QB in your league.  So what ever point value or SV the number 12 QB has is then subtracted from the remaining QBs to get the X Factor.  This year Marc Bulger was number 12 so his X factor was 0.  Ideally, this theory would let you know when any player would be taken too early or is a steal. 

Now that I’ve finished my leagues I thought it would be interesting to post the results.  In the SRBT draft, I won the division and was the number one seed in the play offs.  But poor coaching decisions in the first round caused me to lose to the wild card team.  I ended up taking fourth in that league.  I was very disappointment in myself that I over thought the situational matchups.  It didn’t help that M. Barber was a game time decision and I picked him over Choice.  My second team never had a chance.  I was fortunate to have Tom Brady slip to me as the number 11 pick, so I snatched him.  Once, he broke his leg I was not able to recover and finished out of the playoffs in fifth.  In my X-Factor draft I made it to the Championship game, but lost.  In this league I was ranked number one all year until the last week when I slipped to second.  That was fortunate as the wild card team posted the high score and knocked off the number one team, who I lost to the following week.   In hind site, injuries seem to be the key factor on how your team performs.

What was your strategy and how did you make out?

If you want to discuss this more check out the group I set up Boozers Fantasy Football Strategy and join in.

Comments

Since: Aug 24, 2008
Posted on: January 22, 2009 7:34 pm
 

Fantasy Football Draft Strategies

steelersfan5613,  Whiles its difficult to guess who stays health or gets hurt, you make a very good point about drafting injury prone running back.  I would take that one step further and say don't draft "any" injury prone players.  But if you do, make them late round picks so you don't have high expections on thier performance (or lack of productivity).  Wide outs are hit and miss from year to year.  My league went to a flex (WR/TE) position this year.  Knowing most everyones theory is to draft RB, I loaded up on WRs after the 1st round.  I dominated the league starting 3 of the top 10 WR every week.  But it caught up to me in the last game of the playoff, when it counted the most.  I scored less than 10 points from Andre Johnson, Boldin, and Steve Smith.  - Boozers.




Since: Nov 30, 2007
Posted on: January 21, 2009 11:18 pm
 

Fantasy Football Draft Strategies

I tend to have many different strategies. The first year I played, I found out that If you don't need great wideouts. I won my division as a one seed but lost in the semifinals to the wildcard but I didn't expect much.  My team was based around Tom Brady, Adrian Peterson, and my duo of tight ends that never let me down. My recievers were Kevin Curtis, Reggie Williams, Anthony Gonzalez, Ronald Currie, Dion Branch, and Sydney Rice. Not impressive seeing as only Curtis went over 1000 yards recieving. My two teams this year were like fire and ice. My first one that was a runner-up, was hurt badly by the injuries of S-Jax, my first pick, and got weak quarterback play from Big Ben and Matt Ryan, but was carried by Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith, and Micheal Turner. In my second team, that won the championship, I went with what I like to do: get rookie running backs. My running backs were; Addai, Portis, Forte, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, and Kevin Smith. Since I had a monopoly on running backs, I traded away for Marques Colston and Lee Evans. With Still the first four rbs I mentioned, I dominated. Not to mention I stole Cutler in the seventh round.

After examining my two years in fantasy, I thought that you should get running backs relatively early (don't get injury prone guys), steal a qb or two in the 4th-6th rounds and get a wide reciever when you can. I like to also get rokkie running backs in the late round to fortify my teams. Wide recievers are the most unstable positon, seeing as you would of called my crazy for drafting Antonio Bryant at all. He was my winning roster at the end of the season.

 

Cutler

Forte, Portis, Sammy Morris

Bryant, Colston, Kevin Walter, Vincent Jackson, Holmes, Cotchery

John Carlson, Dustin Keller

Eagles DST

Mason Crosby

 

Key performers: Chris Johnson (traded) Matt Forte, Clinotn Portis and Jay Cutler




Since: Aug 24, 2008
Posted on: January 19, 2009 11:26 pm
 

Fantasy Football Draft Strategies

It's hard to pick players from the other team.  Funny story about the real game and FF.  I was at a Broncos game several years ago and they were playing the Colts on Sunday night.  I had Marvin Harrison on my FF team and need around 10 point to win my matchup.  Manning threw a pass to Harrison late in the game where he broke a few tackles and scored.  I wanted to jump up and scream, but knowing where I was at and who I was routing for, I cooled my jets and booed the play like the rest of the crowd.  The Colts went on to win the game with a long FG in overtime.  I realized I would have much rather have lost the FF match that week than see the team lose.  I don't load up on Bronco players in the FF draft, but I always have at least one on my team.  I was lucky to get Marshall this year.  So load up on the Steelers and have fun watching the SB, with no regrets. 


Icky Shuffle
Since: Nov 15, 2008
Posted on: January 19, 2009 10:44 pm
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Since: Aug 24, 2008
Posted on: January 19, 2009 7:04 pm
 

Fantasy Football Draft Strategies

Icky Shuffle.  Good job, 118 is darn good.  I had 103 this week (Warner & Ftiz = 70) and played without a TE.  I'm a little over 100 points behind and only have 5 players for the SB.  No DEF/ST, K, TE and no picks left.  I did move up 10,000 spots this week (lol).

If I have read this right, you have decided to pick up Big Ben & Steelers DEF/ST.  So your questions boils down to one of the following possitions, RB, TE, or K.  In addition, your limited at RB to Cardinals players. Statistically, if you break it down the most points are scored at RB then K, then TE position.  For max points you should pick a RB.

So, at RB I would go with Hightower over James if you determine you want to go that way.  Assuming the Steelers shut down the running game, what little the Cardinals have, he may get you some points on the goal line.  Why would they run the ball when the have Warner and all those WR options?   I'm thinking you need to pick a K over TE and  I like Racker matchup better against the Steelers DEF if you determine to go this route.   Good Luck.  - Boozers



Icky Shuffle
Since: Nov 15, 2008
Posted on: January 19, 2009 4:30 pm
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Since: Aug 18, 2007
Posted on: January 14, 2009 6:42 pm
 

Fantasy Football Draft Strategies

I realized something the other day after I posted.  I am definitely going to lose either Anquan Boldin or both McNabb and Westbrook, and in both cases my final add/drop will be much more useful than picking up a TE or Kicker now.  So I'll hold off and see who wins between the Eagles and Cardinals. 

I'd think most people would normally say it has to be the Eagles that will win, but as we can all see, both teams are extremely hot right now, so should be interesting.




Since: Aug 24, 2008
Posted on: January 13, 2009 8:36 pm
 

Fantasy Football Draft Strategies

Icky Shuffle. 

Looks like you are in good shape for the play off challenge.  I thought I had this figured out, but I couldn't pick the winners to save my life.  In fact if I would have pick the opposite teams advancing I would have been much better off.  With the way the games have gone so far I don't have a clue who's going to make it to the SB.  I would favor PITs and PHI this week, so maybe you will need to use your pick next week (LOL).

 I had White, Turner, and Clark too.  Picked up Steve Smith and D. Williams in round 2.  Scored points early but its going to cost me in the last 2 games.  In hind site, I should have not picked a TE in any round and saved the pick.  Good luck, let me know how you make out this week. - Boozers. 




Since: Aug 24, 2008
Posted on: January 13, 2009 8:11 pm
 

Fantasy Football Draft Strategies

JLed11. 

I agree with your plan and wouldn't waste a pick on a kicker or TE (see Path Forward below).  Most points will come from your QB, RB, or WR positions.  I couldn't make up my mind on which of the teams to load up on in the first round.  I loaded up on the Colts players and that didn't work out.  But I use a risk management approach and am not a gambler.

Path Forward:  Like I indicated above, I don't see anything wrong with your plan, but ask you to consider this.  Are you a gambler or risk taker?  By not picking a position you will be fore going some points.  If you really believe its the Steelers and Eagles in the SB, then pick a position from one of those teams.  However, if you play your cards a little closer to your vest, then hedge your position and save your pick.  The up side if you are right (picking a player this week from the team that moves on) is you get a few more points.  The down side if the PIT or PHI lose, you are really in a world of hurt and wasted your last move.  If you saved that last pick to grab a QB/RB/WR (assuming one of the two teams lose) and could pick up another 20 points and you still have a chance to move up the board.  So are you the gambler or do you use risk management? - Boozers



Icky Shuffle
Since: Nov 15, 2008
Posted on: January 13, 2009 5:22 pm
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