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Brian Cook

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Blogpoll Week 5

Posted on: October 7, 2009 12:55 pm
Score: 168
 
 
Rank Team PPB Delta
1 Alabama (50) 24.2 --
2 Florida (43) 23.8 --
3 Texas (4) 23.0 --
4 LSU 19.9 3
5 Virginia Tech 19.8 --
6 Boise State 19.7 2
7 Cincinnati 18.5 1
8 Southern Cal 18.2 --
9 Miami (Florida) 15.5 6
10 TCU 15.3 --
11 Ohio State 15.0 1
12 Iowa 14.4 1
13 Oregon 11.4 3
14 Auburn 10.3 9
15 Penn State 9.0 3
16 Oklahoma State 8.7 2
17 Kansas 8.0 2
18 Nebraska 5.7 3
19 Georgia Tech 5.4 7
20 Missouri 5.1 6
21 Brigham Young 5.0 1
22 South Florida 4.9 4
23 Mississippi 4.4 2
24 Wisconsin 3.9 2
25 Oklahoma 3.7 14

Also Receiving Votes: South Carolina(3.5), Houston(1.9), Georgia(1.8), Stanford(1.6), Notre Dame(1.1), Michigan(0.6), Arizona(0.5), West Virginia(0.3), Pittsburgh(0.2), Boston College(0.2), Utah(0.2), Connecticut(0.1), California(0.1), UCLA(0.1), Texas Tech(0.1), Central Michigan(0.0), UAB(0.0),

Total Ballots: 97

Votes by blog here , votes by team here .

After a terribly exciting week in which the BlogPoll anointed a new #1 and generally demonstrated itself to be totally awesome relative to the actual polls that comprise the BCS, it's a bit of of a return to normalcy. This will be the theme of the rest of the year as games keep rolling in and your wiggle room to do something interesting evaporates.

This week the big movers are Miami (That Miami), which squeezed by Oklahoma and re-established its top-ten bonafides after the Virginia Tech embarrassment of a week ago, Auburn, which got a not-as-close-as-it-looked victory at Tennessee and has finally exorcised the stink of last year to pollsters, Georgia Tech, which won at Mississippi State, and Missouri, which did absolutely nothing but watched the back end of the poll implode whilst enjoying cheeseburgers.

Oklahoma is the most obvious faller but don't forget about poor Houston, which went from the top ten penthouse to gone after losing to UTEP by lots. Don't ask how or why. It just is. Georgia and Michigan also dropped out.

Justify Your Existence

Alabama, #3 everywhere else, is a tentative #1 here. They've got six first place votes total across the AP and Coaches' polls. Our one-week skepticism of LSU has been battered back into shape by Les Miles's ability to inexplicably pull his team out of the fire, but other major differences of opinion:

WE LIKE

  • Alabama, obviously.
  • Miami is #9 here, #11 in both other polls.
  • Auburn is #13 here compared to #17 AP and #19 Coaches.
  • GT is #19 here, #23/#22 elsewhere.

WE DON'T LIKE

  • Oklahoma is #19 to the AP and #21 to the Coaches but is just barely hanging on to the last spot here.
  • OSU (#11) meets considerably more skepticism here than in the other polls, where they're 8 and 9.
  • Ole Miss is #23 here, #20 in the AP, and #16(!!!) in the Coaches' poll.

LOL WUT

  • The coaches still have Penn State above Iowa.

Wack Ballot Watchdog

Oddities:

  • I know we're getting to the point in the season where pure head-to-head isn't necessarily the best or only way to rank teams, but it seems hard to defend placing Oregon eight spots in front of a team (Boise State) that housed them on the opening weekend and has not lost, as Buckeye Commentary does.
  • Two voters are still inexplicably going for Cal . I guess the Maryland win looks better this week, but come on.
  • If you think #12 is low for Florida , you haven't seen anything yet: Tomahawk Nation puts UF #20, down 15 after a bye week and behind Michigan(!?).
  • The Auburner allmost scales those same heights by placing LSU #20 .
  • Arizona just picked up a nice win in Corvallis, but, um: BHGP ranks them #6 . It wasn't that nice.

And an omissions: where is South Carolina? Surely wins over NC State and Ole Miss plus a narrow, narrow loss to UGA is worth poll entry over Kansas or whoever.

Now on to the extracurriculars. First up are the teams which spur the most and least disagreement between voters as measured by standard deviation. Note that the standard deviation charts halt at #25 when looking for the lowest, otherwise teams that everyone agreed were terrible (say, Eastern Michigan) would all be at the top.

Most Disagreement

# Team StdDev
1 Kansas 4.9
2 Oklahoma State 4.9
3 Nebraska 4.7
4 South Florida 4.6
5 Penn State 4.5

No one knows much about the Big 12. Here is a rant on that subject from War Blog Eagle that might explain things :

You’ll notice there are only two Big 12 teams in the ballot above. This is because the Big 12 is a joke.

Herewith, a comprehensive list of the entire conference’s nonconference victories to date, recalling that we have now entered the sixth week of the season: [long list of junk with Georgia, Wake Forest and Illinois the only BCS opponents therein] [Further list of B12 nonconference matchups that were not wins.]

Of course, here’s the catch: they lost every one of those games. Take the actual contenders for the top 25 in the Big 12–Texas, Oklahoma, Okie St., Texas Tech, Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri–and they’re a combined 1-5 against legitimate nonconference opponents. (Southern Miss lost that designation when it slipped up against UAB, by the way.) 1-5 .

But I’m supposed to rank Kansas anyway, right, because they’re 4-0 and they’re Kansas? I’m supposed to rank Oklahoma anyway, because they’ve beaten Tulsa and Idaho St. and they’re Oklahoma?

Some people say yes. Others say not. Result: Big 12 mania atop this metric.

Ballot Math

First up are "Mr. Bold" and "Mr. Numb Existence." The former goes to the voter with the ballot most divergent from the poll at large. The number you see is the average difference between a person's opinion of a team and the poll's opinion.

Mr. Bold

# Blog Team   Avg Error
1 Tomahawk Nation Florida State 6.17
2 Saurian Sagacity Florida 5.81
3 SimonOnSports Connecticut 5.53
4 The Tortilla Retort Texas Tech 4.24
5 Black Heart Gold Pants Iowa 4.10

Perhaps on the strength of that wack #20 vote for Florida, Tomahawk Nation eases into possession of Mr. Bold . Many, many weird votes, including: Miami #2, Iowa #3, South Carolina #10, Houston still #14, Texas #16, Michigan #19, the aforementioned Florida #20, and Ohio State #25. From your ballot to God's ears, TN.

Mr. Numb Existence

# Blog Team   Avg Error
1 Troy Nunes Is An Absolute Magician Syracuse 1.40
2 The Only Colors Michigan State 1.53
3 The Wolverine Blog Michigan 1.56
4 Third Saturday in Blogtober Alabama 1.60
5 Buffs.tv Colorado 1.61

Troy Nunes Is An Absolute Magician 's long coverage of Syracuse athletics has finally netted it something of value: the week five, 2009, Mr. Numb Existence award. Next up: the International Bowl ?

Next we have the Coulter/Kos Award and the Straight Bangin' Award , which are again different sides of the same coin. The CKA and SBA go to the blogs with the highest and lowest bias rating, respectively. Bias rating is calculated by subtracting the blogger's vote for his own team from the poll-wide average. A high number indicates you are shameless homer. A low number indicates that you suffer from an abusive relationship with your football team.

The Coulter/Kos Award

# Blog Team   Bias
1 Big Red Network Nebraska 11.33
2 Husker Mike's Blasphemy Nebraska 8.33
3 Black Heart Gold Pants Iowa 7.60
4 Braves and Birds Georgia 7.25
5 Subway Domer Notre Dame 6.93

Foul power of the CK Award update(!): Iowa managed to escape the true overpowering wrath of the double-headed god of bias, but only just. A Ricky Stanzi pick-six brought Arkansas State within ten and then the Red Wolves—why is it that teams that change their name from something offensively Indian, in this case the "Indians," always explicitly put red in their nicknames afterwards?—then drove for a sphincter-tightening touchdown to make it 24-21. They could not close the deal, perhaps because the CK Award was splitting its steely gaze between Nebraska (Nebraska blogs finished 1-2 last week with another Husker blogger in the #4 spot) and the Hawkeyes, who only finished third in last week's balloting but were thrust into the spotlight because of a Nebraska bye.

But they did easily beat the spread, bringing the CK Award to 6-0 on the season against Vegas and 5-1 straight up, with an undefeated Big Ten team's three point escape against a Sunbelt team the lone loss. Wrath and woe.

We'll never find out if the CK Award stores up hatred for later since Nebraska blogs take 1-2 again this week. That #4 guy must have got wise. Nebraska travels to Missouri to open Big 12 play; that line opened as a pick-em but has moved to Nebraska –3.

Oh, right: congratulations to the Big Red Network for pulling this in for a second consecutive week.

The Straight Bangin' Award

# Blog Team   Bias
1 Saurian Sagacity Florida -4.78
2 Tilting at WindMills Oklahoma -3.68
3 Gobbler Country Virginia Tech -1.78
4 Dawg Sports Georgia -1.75
5 Hey Jenny Slater Georgia -1.75

Saurian Sagacity, a dedicated resume-ranking blog that takes an extra dim view of cupcakin' it, often ends up here early in the season when their team of choice spends lots of its time cupcakin' it. And here they are, dropping Florida down to #7 after a bye week.

SIDE NOTE : they have Alabama and Auburn 1-2 at this juncture, which would make for a Football Armageddon to end all Football Armageddons. The entire state would devolve. The loser would have to leave. They'd pile them up in two square miles in the northwest corner of the State and build a big fence around it.

Swing is the total change in each ballot from last week to this week (obviously voters who didn't submit a ballot last week are not included). A high number means you are easily distracted by shiny things. A low number means that you're damn sure you're right no matter what reality says.

Mr. Manic-Depressive

# Blog Team   Swing
1 Saurian Sagacity Florida 220
2 Black Heart Gold Pants Iowa 182
3 Dr. Saturday Southern Miss 176
4 Tomahawk Nation Florida State 164
5 The Joe Cribbs Car Wash Auburn 156

Wheeee! This award is still the realm of the dedicated resume-ranker, with the aforementioned Saurian Sagacity racking up 220 points worth of changes and easily outdistancing the pack. Auburn, Miami, Penn State, Michigan, and previous #2 Houston all see double-digit shifts and the only team to remain in the same spot is Alabama. That is tossing your ballot away and starting anew.

Mr. Stubborn

# Blog Team   Swing
1 Clone Chronicles Iowa State 60
2 Hey Jenny Slater Georgia 60
3 Yet Another N.C. State Sports Blog North Carolina State 62
4 Buffs.tv Colorado 66
5 The Nittany Line Penn State 66

On the other side of the ledger, this week we have a tie for Mr. Stubborn . Both ballots actually see a fair share of movement—60 is a big winning number here—but most of the ups and downs are in lockstep; no major shifts. Also Clone Chronicles still has Oklahoma #11, which what?


Category: NCAAF
Tags: alabama, blogpoll
 
Comments Add a Comment
PiGuy314
Reputation: 94
Level: All-Star
Since: Feb 27, 2007
Posted on: October 8, 2009 2:06 am
Score: 117
 

Blogpoll Week 5

I'm not sure how someone can provide impenetrable logic to why the poll does not include Houston anymore but has Okie State at 16. The answer should be obvious: Houston lost to a horrifically bad team (one that had just lost by eight TDs the week before!). Okie State has a decent win (Georgia) and a non-calamitous loss.

I'd probably have the two closer together, but OkSt ahead of Houston isn't even remotely unjustifiable at this point.


Iostcause
Reputation: 0
Level: Amateur
Since: Oct 7, 2009
Posted on: October 7, 2009 2:23 pm
Score: 112
 

Blogpoll Week 5

The Auburner allmost scales those same heights by placing LSU #20 .
I don't see how this doesn't make sense.  They haven't beaten any ranked teams in the current blogpoll.  They've scraped by in nearly every single game they've played.  They went 8-5 last year.  They're hanging around in the top 5 purely because they have LSU on their helmets, and not because of anything they've shown on the field.


HS_BHGP
Reputation: 17
Level: Amateur
Since: Oct 7, 2009
Posted on: October 7, 2009 2:20 pm
Score: 50
 

You're Right

The poll should definitely have Houston ranked ahead of Okie State, who they beat.
We also should have 2-3 UTEP ranked ahead of Houston, because they killed Houston.

Of course, then we must have Texas, Kansas, and Buffalo ranked ahead of UTEP, because they all beat UTEP.
And then we need Pitt, Central Michigan, Temple, and Central Florida ahead of Buffalo...
So that logic doesn't work, and the UTEP loss is a complete and total disqualifier for Houston.  Case closed.  That's why Oklahoma State gets ranked and Houston doesn't.


simon11fiji
Reputation: 95
Level: Superstar
Since: Aug 23, 2006
Posted on: October 7, 2009 2:00 pm
Score: 77
 

Blogpoll Week 5

I'm not sure how someone can provide impenetrable logic to why the poll does not include Houston anymore but has Okie State at 16.


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