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Blog Entry

Eisenberg Week 10 Start/Sit Picks

Posted on: November 19, 2010 1:24 pm
 

Week 10 Start/Sit Accountability

 

Standards:

QB – over 15 = good Start pick/bad Sit pick; under 15 = bad Start pick/good Sit pick

RB – over 12 = good Start pick/bad Sit pick; under 12 = bad Start pick/good Sit pick

WR – over 10 = good Start pick/bad Sit pick; under 10 = bad Start pick/good Sit pick

TE – over 8 = good Start pick/bad Sit pick; under 8 = bad Start pick/good Sit pick

K – over 9 = good Start pick/bad Sit pick; under 9 = bad Start pick/good Sit pick

DEF – over 10 = good Start pick/bad Sit pick; under 10 = bad Start pick/good Sit pick

 

Start of the Week – Josh FreemanGood (20 pts - 241 PaYd, 2 TD; 19 RuYd)

 

Analysis: Good pick for a starting QB.  Not the best, though, so arguably not a good Start of the Week.  Obviously, Michael Vick would have been a good choice for that.  But a ton of QBs scored more than Freeman last Sunday, such as Vick, Matt Schaub, Ben Roethlisberger, Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel, Eli Manning, David Garrard, etc., etc., etc.

 

QB STARTS

 

Roethlisburger – Good (29 pts – 387 PaYd, 3 TD, 1 INT; 12 RuYd)

Orton – Good (31 pts – 296 PaYd, 4 TD)

Joe FlaccoGood (22 pts – 215 PaYd, 3 TD, 1 INT; 13 RuYd)

David Garrard – Good (26 pts – 342 PaYd, 2 TD; 35 RuYd)

Shaun Hill (sleeper) – Good (16 pts – 323, TD, INT)

 

Avg.: 24.8 points

 

QB SITS

 

Carson PalmerBad (15 pts – 292 PaYd, 2 TD, 3 INT)

Brett FavreGood (3 pts – 170 PaYd, TD, 3 INT, fum lost)

Cassel – Bad (36 pts – 469 PaYd, 4 TD, fum lost)

Jay CutlerBad (22 pts – 237 PaYd, 3 TD, 2 INT; 24 RuYd)

Donovan McNabbBad (15 pts – 295 PaYd, 2 TD, 3 INT)

Tom Brady (bust) – Bad (35 pts – 350 PaYd, 3 TD; rush TD)

 

Avg.: 21 points

 

Eisenberg Success Rate: 54.55% (6/11)

 

Analysis: For the first time since I started over-scrutinizing his picks, Eisenberg really nailed the Starts.  Unfortunately, he blew the Sits to an almost-equal extent.  Favre was a good pick, obviously, as he ALWAYS is (i.e. no real good advice there).  Same with Big Ben – I don’t care if he has two off games in a row, he’s still a must-start next time out.  And when does Orton become a must-start?  He’s put up 295 yards or more in 7 of 9 games and at least 2 TDs in 5 of 9.  And his team has virtually no ability to run the ball.  And it doesn’t help when 2 of your 6 Sit choices put up 35 points each.

 

RB STARTS

 

LeGarrette BlountGood (15 pts – 91 RuYd, TD)

Brandon JacobsBad (2 pts – 17 RuYd; 11 ReYd)

Jahvid BestBad (3 pts – 35 RuYd; 4 ReYd)

Thomas JonesBad (1 pt – 3 RuYd; 19 ReYd)

Tim HightowerBad (11 pts – 39 RuYd, TD; 23 ReYd)

Mike Goodson (sleeper) – Neutral (9 pts – 100 RuYd; 13 ReYd)

 

Avg: 6.83 points

 

RB SITS

 

BenJarvus Green-EllisGood (9 pts – 67 RuYd; 37 ReYd)

Felix JonesBad (19 points – 51 RuYd; 85 ReYd, TD)

Rick Williams – Good (6 pts – 64 RuYd; 6 ReYd)

Shonn GreeneGood (9 pts – 62 RuYd; 22 ReYd)

Willis McGaheeGood (0 pts – 8 RuYd; -4 ReYd)

Matt Forte (bust) – Good (6 pts – 69 RuYd; 9 ReYd)

 

Avg.: 8.17 points

 

Eisenberg Success Rate: 54.55% (6/11)

 

Analysis: Sits easily outpace Starts.  For starters, I give the Goodson pick a “neutral” because for a sleeper pick, 9 points isn’t too bad.  Also, Hightower is indeed on the borderline, but I gotta stick to my standards.  This is the opposite of the QB picks – great Sits, horrible Starts.  I mean, after what Best had done recently?  I don’t care what defense he’s playing, he shouldn’t start in FFB right now (and maybe for the rest of the season).  Same with T. Jones – Haley has finally come to his senses and given Charles a sizeable majority of reps.  We saw that in Week 9, so I don’t get the Jones pick in Week 10.  With regard to Sits, Felix should have been a safe pick – that’s just the luck of FFB playing out.  Williams and McGahee are guys that, like T. Jones, should not start at all right now because they unevenly split reps as #2 backs, and their coaches have proven they won’t commit to running.  So I give those two a big “DUH.”  Lastly, though it was technically a “good” pick, I vehemently dispute the logistics of Matt Forte as a bust.  Before Week 10, the guy had 2 good fantasy starts out of 9 possible.  A player has to be good for a bad game to constitute a “bust.”  Bad games have been the norm for Forte.

 

WR STARTS

 

Dez BryantGood (16 pts – 104 ReYd, TD)

Randy MossBad (2 pts – 26 ReYd)

Mike Sims-WalkerBad (2 pts – 26 ReYd)

Santonio HolmesGood (13 pts – 76 ReYd, TD)

Pierre GarconBad (3 pts – 37 ReYd)

Steve Breaston (sleeper) – Neutral (9 pts – 98 ReYd)

 

Avg.: 7.5 points

 

WR SITS

 

Chad OchocincoBad (14 pts – 86 ReYd, TD)

Santana MossGood (2 pts – 28 ReYd)

Steve Smith (CAR) – Good (4 pts – 47 ReYd)

Wes WelkerGood (8 pts – 89 ReYd)

Dwayne BoweBad (30 pts – 186 ReYd, 2 TD)

Brandon Marshall (bust) – Good (3 pts – 37 ReYd)

 

Avg.: 10.17 points

 

Eisenberg Success Rate: 54.55% (6/11) (this is starting to get redundant)

 

Analysis: Sits DRAMATICALLY outperform the starts.  Again, all it takes is one really bad sit.  I don’t see how you sit Bowe right now, regardless of the matchup.  Even prior to last Sunday, he had about 300 yards and 6 TDs in his previous 4 games.  You can’t sit production like that, regardless of the Champ Bailey matchup.  Welker would have been a pretty decent start in PPR leagues.  Marshall is just a loser right now.  And Steve Smith is another one of those guys who should NEVER be started at this point, earning Eisenberg another big, fat “DUH.”  The guy hasn’t topped 8 points since Week 2, and he has 1 game of more than 50 yards since that time.  He’s a clear non-factor until he proves otherwise.  Lastly, Santonio Holmes has like 100 yards and 0 TDs in regulation the last two weeks.  Last week, he had about 30 yards in regulation, and he was a terrible Start pick – that is, until he caught like a 45-yard TD pass in overtime.  I still don’t trust this guy in regulation, and have no reason to.

 

TE STARTS

 

Brandon PettigrewBad (5 pts – 50 ReYd)

Marcedes LewisBad (5 pts – 53 ReYd)

Chris CooleyBad (2 pts – 23 ReYd)

Joel Dreessen (sleeper) – Bad (0 pts – 24 ReYd, fum lost)

 

Avg.: 3 points

 

TE SITS

 

Benjamin WatsonGood (7 pts – 74 ReYd)

Brent CelekGood* (0 pts – 8 ReYd)

Todd HeapBad (11 pts – 57 ReYd, TD)

Greg Olsen (bust) – Bad (9 pts – 31 ReYd, TD)

 

Avg.: 7.25 points

 

Eisenberg Success Rate: 25% (2/8)

 

Analysis: This is pretty awful.  There is an asterisk by Celek because he has never – NOT ONCE – been a startable option when Vick has started and finished.  In those games, Celek has yardage total of 27, 42, and 0, not counting last week’s 8.  He has 0 TDs in those games.  The two games he has scored TDs, they were thrown to him by Kevin Kolb.  Even taking those games into account, Celek is barely even mentionable as a #2 TE – he has 3 games (out of 9) with more than 40 yards, and ZERO with more than 47.  That’s because he is the fifth receiving option on his own team.  Otherwise, Heap and Olsen turned out to be two of the top-7 TE options last weekend, and Watson was #12.  Eisenberg’s Start picks were #s 19, 16, 28 and 47, respectively (in a decimals league).

 

DST

 

START – Tampa Bay – Bad (5 pts – 16 PA, 2 sacks, 1 fum rec)

SIT – New England – Bad (13 pts – 26 PA, 5 sacks, INT, TD)

 

K

 

START – Lawrence TynesGood (9 pts – 2 FG, 3 PAT)

SIT – Ryan LongwellGood (7 pts – 2 FG, 1 miss, 1 PAT)

 

Analysis: Terrible DST picks.  It is becoming more and more apparent that you cannot pick DSTs based solely on matchup – in nose case was that more clear than with TB last week.  TB is not a good defense, so it probably shouldn’t start no matter the matchup.  (I am leaving toward feeling the same way about Arizona in Week 15, when it takes on the same pathetic Carolina team.)  The DST with the good matchup is really only a lock (a loose one, at that) to have a relatively low PA figure.  Takeaways and defensive TDs are another story.

 

And the K figures show just how arbitrary my “standards” are – a good Sit has 2 fewer points than a good Start.  Ah well, gotta draw a line somewhere.  (Also, in two of my leagues, misses are penalized to the tune of Longwell only having 5 points…)

 

EISENBERG’S OVERALL SUCCESS RATE: 50% (23/46).  This includes the Start of the Week and a heap of “good” assessments for players that are no-brainer Starts/Sits.

 

Draw your own conclusions.

Category: NFL
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