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Blog Entry

Without deal, apathy is right around the corner

Posted on: October 10, 2011 11:49 am
NEW YORK – We have reached the point of few words and fewer clues as to how and when the NBA lockout will end. One of three things will happen Monday, in no particular order of likelihood:

1) The two sides emerge, say nothing again, and announce that they’re going to continue meeting. A short time later, the first two weeks of the regular season are postponed, rather than canceled, with the possibility that the games could be squeezed in or the season compressed if a deal is reached by Friday.

2) David Stern appears on the sidewalk – in the daylight hours this time – and announces that, unfortunately, the league was unable to reach an agreement with the players and he has no choice but to cancel the first two weeks of the regular season.

3) Stern and union director Billy Hunter emerge together and announce a deal in principle on a new collective bargaining agreement, starting a race against time to get the details ironed out and deal ratified so the season can start on time.

The list of agenda items that stand between here and any of those outcomes is longer than Kevin Durant’s wingspan.

For the second time in recent weeks, the two sides dropped all discussion of the elephant in the room – the BRI split – and focused on system issues only Sunday in a hastily called bargaining session. The last time this happened, the league and union negotiators made little tangible progress on the system issues, and when they returned to the BRI split this past Tuesday, they could not close the gap from the 53 percent the players were offering to the 50 percent where owners had dug in.

Now, while sources say agreement is within reach on adjustments to spending exceptions like the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions, a major sticking point is a punitive, laddered luxury tax that players fear will effectively serve as a hard salary cap. When the two sides reconvene at 2 p.m. ET in Manhattan, the job at hand will be monumental: somehow marrying the system issues that remain hotly contested with the BRI split, which is contested at something akin to inferno levels.

What’s most puzzling about how the negotiators got to this point – with no deal and regular season games scheduled to be scrapped by the end of the day – is that in mid-September, Stern acknowledged that the two sides were “on the road” to an agreement on the economics. At that point, the players were believed to have been offering to receive a 54 percent share of BRI – already a $1 billion concession over six years in an effort to address the owners’ stated annual losses of $300 million – while signaling a willingness to make another economic move conditioned on key system aspects remaining intact.

Days later, the owners on Sept. 22 increased their proposed players’ share of BRI from 44 percent to 46 percent on average over the life of a 10-year proposal. The owners inched upward from there in subsequent negotiations – to 48 percent and finally to 50 percent this past Tuesday – while the players made another move to 53 percent, marking roughly equivalent $1.3 billion concessions for each side.

As we learned after Tuesday’s crucial bargaining session, the two sides weren’t exactly stuck at 53 and 50, respectively, for the players. In a small side conference as the talks entered crunch time Tuesday, the owners offered a 49-51 percent range for the players’ share, while the players countered with 51-53. That’s where it ended, and no further negotiations on the BRI split occurred Sunday night.

The impasse leaves open the maddening question: If the two sides were “on the road” to an agreement on the economics in mid-September when the spread was 46-54, how could they be so far apart after the gap was shaved by $1.6 billion this past Tuesday – with the difference between the midpoint of each side’s BRI band being reduced to a mere 2 percentage points (52-50)?

The answer can likely be found in a couple of crucial areas. For one, small-market owners may have dug in hard on the BRI split, insisting they cannot accept a deal in which the teams receive less than 50 percent of revenues without substantially addressing system issues they believe put them at a competitive disadvantage compared to high-revenue, big-spending teams. Second, to the extent that the division of revenues is inexorably linked to the system that determines how the players’ share is delivered, the players could find themselves in a quid-pro-quo position: If they want the system mostly intact, then 50 percent is the best offer they’re going to see. For room to exist for further negotiation on the split, the owners need system adjustments they believe will enhance competitive balance and give teams the flexibility they need to get out from under bad contracts and keep star players from bolting for bigger markets.

All of these moving parts must somehow be tied together Monday – or realistically, by Friday, as long as enough progress and momentum exist. If not, the NBA faces the slippery, dangerous slope of canceled games – which would lead to economic losses each side would then try to recoup in further negotiations, which would lead to more canceled games and, essentially, the Armageddon both sides recognized would be a possibility when the lockout was imposed July.

As Stern said that day, these things tend to take on a life of their own.

Stern was a man of exasperated expressions and few words Sunday night. Though the real 11th hour could be weeks or even months away – the deadline to cancel the entire 1998-99 season wasn’t until Jan. 7, and a deal was reached with hours to spare – Stern may sense that the public tolerance for this lockout is waning and waning fast.

There was no Twitter, no 60-second news cycle, no All-Star charity games streaming online in ’99. Collective bargaining negotiations in sports are excruciating -- not nearly as conducive to the way fans connect and follow the sport as the sport itself is. People want answers, a resolution, and their tolerance in the 60-second news cycle for the glacial, painful manner in which billions are divided is running out – and will be on empty soon.

People were ready to move on from the NBA in ’99, and the damage from the lockout was incalculable. To the contrary, people now want to embrace the NBA and the product and storylines it offers in the ever-more crowded landscape and crackling news cycle of sports.

But this stuff? This bickering over billions? People are ready to move on from it, go find the next story, the new trending topic, something – anything – more interesting and satisfying. And Stern knows they will find it, thus transforming his sidewalk statements into trees falling in the forest with no one around to hear.

Stern and his players have reached the point of few words, all right. If they don’t find the point of many solutions soon, those words and the whole sport will fall on deaf ears.

Since: Nov 7, 2008
Posted on: October 10, 2011 2:13 pm

Without deal, apathy is right around the corner

The players are nuts if they fall for this idiotic ploy.  Stern has been moving the deadline back each and every week.  Do we really think that the owners want to sacrifice games?  Games = a whole lot more money to the owners than the players, who can play in other leagues if they want (or move furniture like Delonte West).  What would most likely happen is that they would push back the start of the season and then force the players to play more games each week.  

Stand firm, force the owners to concede more, and force Stern to cancel the games.  

Since: Apr 25, 2008
Posted on: October 10, 2011 2:03 pm

Without deal, apathy is right around the corner

I feel sorry for the true NBA / hoops fans out there in Chicago, NYC, etc., but as a longtime Seattle Sonics season ticketholder, I hope the league and David Stern suffer immensely from this greed.  I gave the NBA my loyalty and significant amounts of money over the years, and was paid back with a big "FU."  

Since: May 28, 2008
Posted on: October 10, 2011 2:03 pm

Without deal, apathy is right around the corner

Right now its a battle of egos! One side doesnt want to appear weaker than the other and one side wants to come out looker better than the other if an agreement is struck. They are arguing over potential revenue that possibly wont be there if the fans get fed up. The have had several meetings basically getting nothing accomplished. The players seem set on a 53-47 split but the owners have allegedly proposed a 50-50 split but the owners of several small market teams balk at anything above 49. You cant have any kind of agreement when 1 side(owners) arent on the same sheet of music. Im curious to see what this afternoon brings!

Since: Apr 13, 2009
Posted on: October 10, 2011 2:03 pm

Without deal, apathy is right around the corner

thank god we still have the ncaa.cancel the nba season and teach them a lesson

Since: Nov 15, 2010
Posted on: October 10, 2011 1:47 pm

Without deal, apathy is right around the corner

I agree, the NBA doesn't have anywhere near the popularity of the NFL. The longer this labor dispute drags on the more likely they will lose fans.  More
people will watch College Basketball.  

Since: May 18, 2011
Posted on: October 10, 2011 1:44 pm

Alert the Media: Apathy is Here

Here is my deal. I am not going to watch a single NBA this season and see if my life is effected negatively. If not, no more NBA. All you millionaires and billiionaires on both sides can do whatever you please. I am now officially locking you out.

Since: Feb 22, 2008
Posted on: October 10, 2011 1:29 pm

Without deal, apathy is right around the corner

I don't understand how these meetings continue to take place with no formative discussions taking place, how does that happen?  It's beyond frustrating to continually read about these 6 hour "meetings" in which nothing actually happens - what kind of "negotiations" are these?

Since: Sep 17, 2007
Posted on: October 10, 2011 1:15 pm

Without deal, apathy is right around the corner

The apathy from fans has been in place for a while. Notice how there isn't the same type of frantic media coverage outside of venues where discussions are to take place or the same type of outrage from fans that there was with the NFL lockout? The fact is, America would be considerably pissed off if there were no football, but a year without basketball is just not that big a deal. Sad for the game but it is what it is.

Since: Aug 27, 2006
Posted on: October 10, 2011 1:01 pm

Without deal, apathy is right around the corner

Owners hold your ground. We need small market teams to compete. I want the lockout to end soon a long with everyone but the players need to learn this is a business and on a different  POV how would the draft lottery work for next year?

Since: Sep 22, 2006
Posted on: October 10, 2011 12:59 pm

Without deal, apathy is right around the corner

Good reporting,  but I gave up caring about the NBA years ago.  I won't miss the league because I cannot watch the league when it is in play either.

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