Play Fantasy The Most Award Winning Fantasy game with real time scoring, top expert analysis, custom settings, and more. Play Now
Blog Entry

Bracketology after wednesday night's games

Posted on: February 12, 2009 2:44 am
 

Before I head off to bed I am going to post a new bracket based on results through Wednesday night's games. Kentucky has moved in to my field after their win Tuesday against Florida and Wisconsin has also moved into the field after their win over Iowa.

As always AUTO BIDS are in CAPS. And as before, South Region winner plays Midwest Region winner; West Region winner plays East Region winner.

South Region (Memphis)

Games played in Kansas City:

1 OKLAHOMA vs. 16 MOREHEAD ST.

8 Tennesse vs. 9 UTAH ST.

Games played in Boise:

4 Marquette vs. 13 W. KENTUCKY

5 Illinois vs. 12 Boston College

Games played in Portland:

3 UCLA vs. 14 NDSU

6 Purdue vs. 11 SIENA

Games played in Dayton:

2 Louisville vs. 15 ROBERT MORRIS

7 GONZAGA vs. 10 Virginia Tech

Midwest Region (Indianapolis)

Games played in Greensboro:

1 NORTH CAROLINA vs. 16 HOLY CROSS

8 UTAH vs. 9 DAVIDSON

Games played in Kansas City:

4 Missouri vs. 13 NORTHEASTERN

5 Washington vs. 12 Cincinnati

Games played in Minneapolis:

3 Villanova vs. 14 WEBER ST.

6 Florida St. vs. 11 Kentucky

2 MICH. ST. vs. 15 LONG BEACH ST.

7 Arizona St. vs. 10 Unlv

East Region (Boston)

Games played in Philadelphia:

1 UCONN vs. 16 MORGAN ST.

8 Florida vs. 9 DAYTON

Games played in Portland:

4 Kansas vs. 13 NORTHERN IOWA

5 California vs. 12 Miami (FL)

Games played in Miami:

3 MEMPHIS vs. 14 VERMONT

6 BUTLER vs. 11 Wisconsin

2 Clemson vs. 15 E. TENNESSEE ST.

7 West Virginia vs. 10 Southern Cal

West Region (Glendale)

Games played in Dayton:

1 Pittsburgh vs. 16 Play-in Game (PRINCETON vs. ALABAMA ST.)

8 Texas vs. 9 LSU

Games played in Boise:

4 Wake Forest vs. 13 BUFFALO

5 Minnesota vs. 12 Arizona

Games played in Philadelphia:

3 Xavier vs. 14 VMI

6 Ohio St. vs. 11 Brigham Young

Games played in Greensboro:

2 Duke vs. 15 TEX A&M-CC

7 Syracuse vs. 10 South Carolina

Last Four In : Boston College, Cincinnati, Arizona, Miami (FL)

Last Four Out : San Diego St., UAB, Maryland, Creighton

Bids by Conference:

ACC- 8

Big East- 8

Big Ten- 6

Pac-Ten- 6

SEC- 5

Big Twelve- 4

Mt. West- 3

Atlantic Ten- 2

 

Comments

Since: Feb 1, 2009
Posted on: February 12, 2009 10:18 pm
 

Bracketology after wednesday night's games

for the last time i will say this tennessee is going to have a higher seed and you will all know it when they pick on selection sunday and if they do not then you can email me to tell me how wrong i was




Since: Mar 4, 2008
Posted on: February 12, 2009 9:50 pm
 

Bracketology after wednesday night's games

I have a question. Trust me, I'm not questioning if your write or wrong I'm just curious. Why would LSU be a 9 seed in the west with 2 SEC teams that as of this moment have worse records and are two games behind them each be 8 seeds? Tenn in the South and Florida in the East. I understand putting Florida in the East but geographically LSU would be way farther south than Tenn. Also you put S Car in the West when they are farther east than just about anyone. I'm not sure how all this works but why would teams not fall into the regions that would make more since. It would seem to me Tenn and Kentucky would fall into the midwest region and LSU into the the South while Florida and S Car should be in the East region. Is your bracket close to what the NCAA does? If so, what gives? Just curious, not arguing. Great questions!

The regions have nothing to do with where the teams in that region come from, they are merely named after the area in which the regional semifinals and finals are held (for example, Indianapolis is in the Midwest, therefore it is the Midwest Regional).

I try to replicate what I think the NCAA tournament committee would do. As I said in my previous comment, there are a lot of factors that go into a teams seed; RPI, SOS, record vs. Top 25, Top 50, 100, overall record against Div. I competition and Conference record. Once teams are seeded the #1 seeds are attempted to be placed in regionals close to home. Within the four #1 seeds each one is rated 1-4. In my bracket, UCONN is the overall #1 seed, with Oklahoma 2nd, UNC 3rd and PITT 4th. UCONN is placed first and their closest region is Boston so that is why they are in the East. Oklahoma would then be placed 2nd, and their closest Regional is the South region; UNC's is the Indianapolis region and then Pitt gets the remaining region (West). 

Other than #1 and possibly #2 seeds the committee doesn't really take into account distance from Regional sites for the rest of the field. They are merely placed on their seed line (4, 6, 7, 9, etc.) and then fit into the bracket to fit other "Bracketing Procedures" (avoiding rematches, teams from the same conference playing each other, etc.). Where the NCAA does take into account travel distance is in the 1st and 2nd round sites, "Pods". Again the higher seeds are given priority in being placed in Pods closer to home, but the NCAA will travel to minimize travel for all teams after the other Bracketing Procedures are followed.




Since: Mar 4, 2008
Posted on: February 12, 2009 9:39 pm
 

Bracketology after wednesday night's games

Why does Syracuse's seed keep falling even though their losses have come at Pitt, at UConn, Louisville, atVillanova, and at Providence? Duke has a tough 5-game stretch but they don't get penalized. Syracuse's last 14 games in the Big East conference schedule are hard but no sympathy is shown to them. Just wondering what you like about Duke? Is it their lack of any decent big man, making them a great candidte for a first round upset? The committee will look at many different things in deciding seeding, which teams are in or out, etc. Yes, Syracuse has had a very difficult schedule but the committee will look at things like a team's record against RPI top 25, top 50 and top 100; record, conference record, RPI and SOS and their record over the last 12 games. Syracuse keeps falling because a majority of these things keep getting worse when a team loses.

Here is Syracuse's "Profile":

Record vs. Div-I: 17-7 (6-6) (ok record for this point in the season)

RPI: 22 SOS: 17 (both very good)

Record vs. RPI 25: 3-4 (pretty good)

RPI top 50: 4-5 (ok)

RPI top 100: 6-7 (so-so)

Last 12 games: 6-6 (hurting Syracuse right now)

These numbers indicate to me that Syracuse is definitely a tournament but somewhere in the middle seeds. Other teams in the Big East (UCONN, PITT, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette) certainly deserve to be seeded ahead of them considering the Orange's struggles recently. At this point in the season every loss and every win can have a significant on a team's seeding when you are in the "middle of the pack".

As far as Duke goes, I don't particular like them, I think they are overrated as a team and are very vulnerable to being upset early in the tournament. However, their "profile" designates a very high seed for them. Duke has an RPI of 4 and a SOS of 5 which tells me they play tough teams and beat at least some of them. Duke has 7 wins against the RPI top 50, that is really helping their RPI and seeding right now. They are also 9-3 in their last 12 games.

 

Thanks for the question! And good luck to your Orangemen the rest of the season!

 




Since: Sep 24, 2007
Posted on: February 12, 2009 5:21 pm
 

Bracketology after wednesday night's games

I have a question.  Trust me, I'm not questioning if your write or wrong I'm just curious.  Why would LSU be a 9 seed in the west with 2 SEC teams that as of this moment have worse records and are two games behind them each be 8 seeds?  Tenn in the South and Florida in the East.  I understand putting Florida in the East but geographically LSU would be way farther south than Tenn.  Also you put S Car in the West when they are farther east than just about anyone.   I'm not sure how all this works but why would teams not fall into the regions that would make more since.  It would seem to me Tenn and Kentucky would fall into the midwest region and LSU into the the South while Florida and S Car should be in the East region.  Is your bracket close to what the NCAA does?  If so, what gives?  Just curious, not arguing.

PS - I know the SEC in basketball sucks so it really doesn't matter to much where they are seeded, but would like to know the thinking behind the system.




Since: Jan 18, 2007
Posted on: February 12, 2009 3:56 pm
 

Bracketology after wednesday night's games

Why does Syracuse's seed keep falling even though their losses have come at Pitt, at UConn, Louisville, atVillanova, and at Providence?  Duke has a tough 5-game stretch but they don't get penalized.  Syracuse's last 14 games in the Big East conference schedule are hard but no sympathy is shown to them.  Just wondering what you like about Duke?  Is it their lack of any decent big man, making them a great candidte for a first round upset?




Since: Mar 4, 2008
Posted on: February 12, 2009 2:03 pm
 

Bracketology after wednesday night's games

Thanks daman for the kind words and the analysis.

It is intentionally set up that way for UCONN since they are my #1 overall seed. And yes Missouri does get an advantage playing close to home, but I wouldn't count my chickens before they're hatched for Mizzou. They have a tough potential 2nd-round matchup against Washington and then a Sweet 16 matchup against North Carolina.

Missouri is playing really well right now, but they need to keep it up down the stretch.




Since: Sep 1, 2006
Posted on: February 12, 2009 1:17 pm
 

Bracketology after wednesday night's games

man, lobo, nice bracket. I just have to say, if this were the actual bracket, the bracket seems to favor 3 teams. Missouri (they go to KC, Indy, and then if they get that far, Detroit. fans dont have to travel so far) UCONN (they go to Philly, Boston and then Detroit) and most of all, Mich St. (Minneapolis, Indy, and a virtual home final 4 in Detroit) Now, NO i'm not saying missouri is going to win, i'm strictly saying Missouri fans wouldnt have to travel too far to go to the games so they'd be more likely to go. Mich st and UCONN have a good shot at it though. OU wouldnt have to go too far either.



The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com