Blog Entry

Beer's Bracket - 01/13/11

Posted on: January 13, 2011 11:20 pm
Edited on: January 15, 2011 11:49 pm
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Bracket is based on results prior to Thursday... records were updated on Wednesday.

Auto bids are in CAPS and First Four games are italicized.  Championship: New Orleans (SE) / Newark (E) winner vs. San Antonio (SW) / Anaheim (W) winner.

New Orleans (SE)
(1S) KANSAS (15-0) vs. (16S) NICHOLLS STATE (3-5) @Tulsa
(8S) West Virginia (10-4) vs. (9S) Gonzaga (10-5) @Tulsa
(5S) Georgetown (12-4) vs. (12S) MISSOURI STATE (13-3) @Tampa
(4S) Illinois (13-4) vs. (13S) Richmond (13-4) / Southern California (10-6) @Tampa
(6S) Vanderbilt (11-3) vs. (11S) Washington State (12-4) @Tuscon
(3S) Brigham Young (16-1) vs. (14S) AKRON (9-5) @Tuscon
(7S) North Carolina (11-4) vs. (10S) BUTLER (11-5) @Tampa
(2S) Connecticut (13-2) vs. (15S) AMERICAN (11-5) @Tampa

Newark (E)
(1E) DUKE (15-0) vs. (16E) MONTANA (9-5) / JACKSON STATE (6-8) @Charlotte
(8E) Cincinnati (15-1) vs. (9E) Georgia (12-2) @Charlotte
(5E) TEMPLE (11-3) vs. (12E) UTAH STATE (14-2) @Denver
(4E) Missouri (13-2) vs. (13E) HARVARD (9-3) @Denver
(6E) Louisville (13-2) vs. (11E) Tennessee (10-6) @Chicago
(3E) Purdue (15-1) vs. (14E) VERMONT (11-4) @Chicago
(7E) Kansas State (11-4) vs. (10E) OLD DOMINION (12-3) @Cleveland
(2E) Pittsburgh (15-1) vs. (15E) LONG BEACH STATE (7-8) @Cleveland

San Antonio (SW)
(1M) OHIO STATE (16-0) vs. (16M) HAMPTON (11-3) @Cleveland
(8M) UNLV (13-3) vs. (9M) St. John's (10-4) @Cleveland
(5M) WASHINGTON (12-3) vs. (12M) Cleveland State (13-3) / Virginia Tech (10-4) @Tulsa
(4M) Texas (13-3) vs. (13M) OAKLAND (10-8) @Tulsa
(6M) Michigan State (10-5) vs. (11M) Marquette (12-5) @Charlotte
(3M) KENTUCKY (13-3) vs. (14M) COASTAL CAROLINA (10-2) @Charlotte
(7M) UCF (13-1) vs. (10M) Boston College (13-4) @DC
(2M) Villanova (14-1) vs. (15M) AUSTIN PEAY (10-6) @DC

Anaheim (W)
(1W) SYRACUSE (16-0) vs. (16W) WAGNER (8-7) / FLORIDA ATLANTIC (10-6) @DC
(8W) ST. MARY'S (12-2) vs. (9W) Arizona (14-3) @DC
(5W) Wisconsin (12-4) vs. (12W) Miami (Fla.) (11-5) @Denver
(4W) Texas A&M (13-1) vs. (13W) COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON (11-5) @Denver
(6W) Florida (13-3) vs. (11W) Wichita State (12-3) @Chicago
(3W) Notre Dame (14-3) vs. (14W) BELMONT (13-3) @Chicago
(7W) Minnesota (12-4) vs. (10W) Oklahoma State (13-2) @Tuscon
(2W) SAN DIEGO STATE (15-0) vs. (15W) FAIRFIELD (12-3) @Tuscon

Last Six Pack: Tennessee (10-6), Miami (Fla.) (11-5), Cleveland State (13-3), Virginia Tech (10-4), Richmond (13-4), Southern California (10-6)

NIT 1 Seeds: UAB (11-3), Portland (12-4), Northwestern (10-4), Michigan (10-5)
NIT 2 Seeds: James Madison (13-3), Marshall (10-4), Dayton (13-4), California (8-7)
NIT 3 Seeds: Xavier (9-5), Drexel (10-4), Princeton (11-4), George Mason (10-5)
NIT 4 Seeds: Colorado State (10-4), Mississippi (12-4), Southern Miss (10-3), Valparaiso (10-5)

Top 5 First Round Individual Matchups
Game 1: (2S) Connecticut vs. (15S) American @ Tampa: Kemba Walker (25.3 PPG) / Vlad Moldoveanu (21.8 PPG)
Game 2: (6S) Vanderbilt vs. (11S) Washington State @ Tuscon: John Jenkins (18.5 PPG) / Klay Thompson (22.3 PPG)
Game 3: (3M) Kentucky vs. (14M) Coastal Carolina @ Charlotte: Terrence Jones (18.7 PPG) / Desmond Holloway (19 PPG)
Game 4: (1M) Ohio State vs. (16M) Hampton @ Cleveland: Jared Sullinger (17.9 PPG) / Darrion Pellum (18.3 PPG)
Game 5: (4M) Texas vs. (13M) Oakland @ Tulsa: Jordan Hamilton (19.4 PPG) / Keith Benson (16.9 PPG)

Top 5 Potential Second Round Individual Matchups (Assumes Seeds 12 or Better Advance)
Game 1: (11S) Washington State vs. (3S) Brigham Young @ Tuscon: Klay Thompson (22.3 PPG) / Jimmer Fredette (26.1 PPG)
Game 2: (10S) Butler vs. (2S) Connecticut @ Tampa: Matt Howard (17.6 PPG) / Kemba Walker (25.3 PPG)
Game 3: (1E) Duke vs. (9E) Georgia @ Charlotte: Nolan Smith (19.5 PPG) / Trey Thompkins (18.1 PPG)
Game 4: (10M) Boston College vs. (2M) Villanova @ DC: Reggie Jackson (19.5 PPG) / Corey Stokes (16.6 PPG)
Game 5: (11E) Tennessee vs. (3E) Purdue @ Chicago: Scotty Hopson (16.5 PPG) / JaJuan Johnson (19.4 PPG)

My First & Second Round Ticket For Thursday & Saturday Games
DC: Reggie Jackson (19.5 PPG), Derrick Williams (19.1 PPG), TyShwan Edmondson (18.6 PPG), Corey Stokes (16.6 PPG), Marcus Jordan (16.3 PPG)

My First & Second Round Ticket For Friday & Sunday Games
Tulsa: Anatoly Bose (23.2 PPG), Jordan Hamilton (19.4 PPG), Casey Mitchell (17.6 PPG), Keith Benson (16.9 PPG), Isaiah Thomas (16 PPG)

View bracket HERE

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Category: NCAAB
Comments

Since: Jan 25, 2008
Posted on: January 14, 2011 10:15 pm
 

Beer's Bracket - 01/13/11

Wizardking – Thank you so much for the thorough evaluation it is extremely helpful!  Can you please post the link to your next bracket when it's updated?  I am DEFINITELY interested in seeing it.

Great points regarding PSU, USC, and Xavier… Penn State certainly deserves a serious look next time.  Unfortunately, my “statement” was that I am a USC fan and I need to be more unbiased next time!
 
Like you, I’m not convinced that Memphis deserves to be in right now (SOS above 150 and RPI near 100 isn’t going to help their case).  Double digit losses to plummeting Georgetown and Tennessee teams certainly don’t help either…

I also agree with your assessment of Cleveland State… no quality wins plus no bad losses does not equal a tournament team.

No justification for Wichita State being ranked higher than Missouri State… I should have given the autobid to Wichita State.  I think they are the better team (even though the Bears just beat them).  Many people may forget that Wichita State nearly beat Uconn in the Maui Invitational.  Going forward, I will probably just use the top team in the current standings to determine my autobid.

I gave some thought to Colorado State but I can honestly say that I haven’t even considered Colorado.  Maybe I should take a closer look.

Good thoughts on the Bearcats… they will have plenty of chances for a marquee win over the next few weeks.  I currently have them at #38 in my personal ranking system (BPI) which is more of a 9-10 seed.  Not for nothing, your comparison with Utah State is solid… I have them at #40.  My “seeding” dilemma with Cincy and all Big East teams has “everything” to do with potential “Big East” conflicts (a #1 seed, 3 #2 seeds, and 3 #1 seeds).

Cal has played plenty of good teams.  They have no real quality wins (Temple?), have lost 5 of their last 10, and are destined for the NIT.

Completely agree that Richmond’s win over Purdue could be huge in the long run.  The fact that they play in a pretty respectable A10 and can pick up a few more good wins helps as well.

I don’t think OK State played Princeton this year but you’re right that they have no big-time wins.  Their best wins are over Missouri State and Kansas State but that won’t be enough.
 
I gave some serious consideration to FSU immediately after the Duke win.  Since I was so far along with my bracket, I basically decided to adjust accordingly for next time.

Again, thanks for all of your comments… I have a whole new perspective for next time!




Since: Jan 25, 2008
Posted on: January 14, 2011 8:10 pm
 

Beer's Bracket - 01/13/11

Joe - You're right... most of my seeds were established on Tue / Wed and then I created the bracket Wed / Thu.  Unfortunately, I don't have enough free time during the week to keep up with it on a daily basis.  Also, I just sent you an email...



Since: Sep 17, 2006
Posted on: January 14, 2011 3:08 am
 

Beer's Bracket - 01/13/11

As always, Beer, phenomenal job adhering to bracketology rules. Unless you've scoured over them and know them inside and out, it's extremely easy to make a mistake. I gave it a thorough once-over and couldn't find a single one. Special props for dealing with the enormous Big East very well and slotting pesky BYU in those Thursday/Saturday sites. These are the two things that really trip people up. Here are a few questions to consider and some things I really like. I don't really have any gripes with any ranking you have, this is just food for thought.

Not much difference between Penn State and USC. USC sneaks in as your last team, and Penn State isn't among the top 4 seeds of the NIT. Penn State is actually a bit higher in both RPI and SOS, and both teams have solid wins (PSU: Illinois, Michigan State. USC: Texas, @Tennessee) but USC has had some terrible losses (Bradley, @TCU, Rider) while Penn State really just has one terrible loss (Maine). Penn State doesn't scream NCAA Tournament, but I think they're at least worth a good, hard look. Xavier is another team comparable in resume. I'd probably put USC third among those three teams, but appreciate that with your last few teams in you have a chance to make a statement that this is your bracket. I'd make that statement by including a "whoa" team like Penn State instead. I'd even say UCLA, who really has what is looking like a fantastic win over BYU, has an argument.

Thank you for not including Memphis. While I believe the team is too talented to miss the Tournament, they are playing like they're too young to make it right now. I haven't had them in the field since early December, and that loss @SMU probably dropped them from everyone's field for now.

Cleveland State hasn't beaten a team in your field, and really only have one more shot when Butler comes to town unless a different Horizon team snags the auto. I don't see them getting an at large despite the solid RPI.

Curious as to why you think Missouri State will get the auto bid from the Valley, but Wichita State will have the higher seed? Are you just anticipating a strong conference tournament performance from the Bears?

Knee jerk reaction is to throw Colorado a bone and put them in the field, but you made the right call on holding off-for now. Alec Burks is tremendous.

Like Cleveland State, no wins for Cincinnati against a team in the field. Very comparable resume to Utah State, yet the Aggies are a 12 and probably in on auto bid alone, while 'Nati is an 8 seed. Put 'em in the MAC and this team is getting no pub. I'm still holding out on the Bearcats. They've really only had one game to prove themselves, @Villanova, and no one thought they were going to win that any way. We'll learn a lot about them in the coming weeks.

Feel like Cal is on the same path as last year. Poor record, but solid computer numbers. However, talent isn't nearly the same. They won't make it.

That win over Purdue is going to prove monster for Richmond. As long as Purdue stays consistent for the rest of the year, it's the game Richmond can point to to differentiate itself from the UABs and UTEPs of the world, very, very talented mid-majors who couldn't pick up a marquee win out of conference.

Oklahoma State still searching for that "look at me" win. They'll get it eventually in Big 12 play, but haven't yet. However, they have beaten a team in your field since you gave Harvard the nod over Princeton.

Aside from head to head, Florida State should go over Virginia Tech in the Dance? State does have the loss at Tech and somehow lost to God forsaken Auburn, but beating Duke gets you in if the rest of your resume is decent---for now.




Since: Feb 5, 2007
Posted on: January 14, 2011 12:06 am
 

Beer's Bracket - 01/13/11

If I'm not mistaken it appears that this is based on rankings prior to Wednesday, not just by records but by seeding. After wednesday I personally think that Georgetwn among others are a bit high. But I'll refrain a bigger analysis until I get my next one up. I took a bit of a break when school started and to let the first bit of conference action settle out... it just made it a mess lol.

Do you still have my email?


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