Blog Entry

Daily Picks: 03/02 - 03/03... BIT Play-In Round

Posted on: March 1, 2011 8:48 pm
Edited on: March 1, 2011 11:41 pm
 

Set A
1-Bradley over Drake
2-Cincinnati over Marquette
3-Clemson over Duke
4-Colgate over American
5-Colorado over Iowa State
6-Fresno State over Idaho
7-Kennesaw State over Belmont
8-Marshall over Texas-El Paso
9-Miami (Ohio) over Buffalo
10-Minnesota over Northwestern
11-Mississippi State over Arkansas
12-Mount St. Mary's over Quinnipiac
13-New Mexico over Brigham Young
14-North Florida over Jacksonville
15-Oklahoma over Texas Tech
16-Southern California over Washington State
17-St. Francis (N.Y.) over Central Connecticut State
18-St. John's over Seton Hall
19-Temple over Massachusetts
20-Tulsa over Rice

Set B
1-Army over Bucknell
2-Campbell over E. Tennessee State
3-Connecticut over West Virginia
4-George Washington over Rhode Island
5-Lipscomb over Mercer
6-Maryland over Miami (Fla.)
7-Memphis over East Carolina
8-North Carolina over Florida State
9-Oregon over Arizona State
10-Rutgers over DePaul
11-Southeastern Louisiana over McNeese State
12-St. Bonaventure over Duquesne
13-St. Francis (Pa.) over LIU-Brooklyn
14-TCU over Air Force
15-Tennessee over South Carolina
16-Texas A&M over Kansas
17-UAB over Southern Miss
18-UCLA over Washington
19-Utah over Colorado State
20-Wagner over Robert Morris

********************

Overall Standings (342 points possible)
1) hoosierguy1019: 226 points (28-8) .830
2) GeoMapster: 194 points (25-11) .784
3) Lobofan2003: 188 points (26-10) .775
4) TranquilChaos: 176 points (24-12) .757
5) BoilerBadger: 176 points (24-12) .757
6) jonvi: 172 points (27-9) .751
7) Beer: 166 points (24-12) .743
8) bearcatnation: 162 points (25-11) .737
9) sfrye4585: 162 points (24-12) .737
10) s0merand0mdude: 160 points (24-11) .751
11) LAOJoe: 150 points (23-13) .719
12) NCAABKJNKY81: 142 points (25-11) .708

Comments

Since: Feb 24, 2008
Posted on: March 2, 2011 10:43 am
 

Daily Picks: 03/02 - 03/03... BIT Play-In Round

Set A
20-Belmont over Kennesaw State
19-Duke over Clemson
18-American over Colgate
17-Quinnipiac over Mount St. Mary's
16-Brigham Young over New Mexico
15-St. John's over Seton Hall
14-Central Connecticut State over St. Francis (N.Y.)
13-Jacksonville over North Florida
12-Idaho over Fresno State
11-Temple over Massachusetts
10-Tulsa over Rice
9-Colorado over Iowa State
8-Drake over Bradley
7-Minnesota over Northwestern
6-Marquette over Cincinnati
5-Mississippi State over Arkansas
4-Washington State over Southern California
3-Texas-El Paso over Marshall
2-Buffalo over Miami (Ohio)
1-Texas Tech over Oklahoma

Set B
20-LIU-Brooklyn over St. Francis (Pa.)
19-Bucknell over Army
18-E. Tennessee State over Campbell
17-Colorado State over Utah
16-Air Force over TCU
15-Robert Morris over Wagner
14-Kansas over Texas A&M
13-McNeese State over Southeastern Louisiana
12-Oregon over Arizona State
11-Rutgers over DePaul
10-North Carolina over Florida State
9-Rhode Island over George Washington
8-UCLA over Washington
7-Maryland over Miami (Fla.)
6-Duquesne over St. Bonaventure
5-Tennessee over South Carolina
4-Lipscomb over Mercer
3-Southern Miss over UAB
2-East Carolina over Memphis
1-West Virginia over Connecticut




Since: Sep 1, 2006
Posted on: March 2, 2011 10:31 am
 

Daily Picks: 03/02 - 03/03... BIT Play-In Round

Set A
20-Belmont over Kennesaw State
19-American over Colgate
18-St. John's over Seton Hall
17-Brigham Young over New Mexico
16-Colorado over Iowa State
15-Quinnipiac over Mount St. Mary's
14-Temple over Massachusetts
13-Tulsa over Rice
12-Texas-El Paso over Marshall
11-Duke over Clemson
10-Idaho over Fresno State
9-Southern California over Washington State
8-Drake over Bradley
7-Jacksonville over North Florida
6-Oklahoma over Texas Tech
5-Northwestern over Minnesota
4-Arkansas over Mississippi State
3-Cincinnati over Marquette
2-St. Francis (N.Y.) over Central Connecticut State
1-Miami (Ohio) over Buffalo

Set B
20-LIU-Brooklyn over St. Francis (Pa.)
19-Air Force over TCU
18-E. Tennessee State over Campbell
17-Bucknell over Army
16-Kansas over Texas A&M
15-Duquesne over St. Bonaventure
14-Tennessee over South Carolina
13-Colorado State over Utah
12-North Carolina over Florida State
11-Memphis over East Carolina
10-Rhode Island over George Washington
9-Oregon over Arizona State
8-Maryland over Miami (Fla.)
7-Rutgers over DePaul
6-UCLA over Washington
5-McNeese State over Southeastern Louisiana
4-Connecticut over West Virginia
3-Lipscomb over Mercer
2-Wagner over Robert Morris
1-Southern Miss over UAB




Since: Feb 2, 2009
Posted on: March 2, 2011 9:25 am
 

Daily Picks: 03/02 - 03/03... BIT Play-In Round

Set A
20-Belmont over Kennesaw State
19-American over Colgate
18-Duke over Clemson
17-Buffalo over Miami (Ohio)
16-Brigham Young over New Mexico
15-Quinnipiac over Mount St. Mary's
14-Temple over Massachusetts
13-Central Connecticut State over St. Francis (N.Y.)
12-Arkansas over Mississippi State
11-Texas-El Paso over Marshall
10-Idaho over Fresno State
9-Texas Tech over Oklahoma
8-Marquette over Cincinnati
7-Jacksonville over North Florida
6-Washington State over Southern California
5-Northwestern over Minnesota
4-St. John's over Seton Hall
3-Tulsa over Rice
2-Colorado over Iowa State
1-Bradley over Drake

Set B
20-LIU-Brooklyn over St. Francis (Pa.)
19-Bucknell over Army
18-E. Tennessee State over Campbell
17-Robert Morris over Wagner
16-Washington over UCLA
15-Kansas over Texas A&M
14-McNeese State over Southeastern Louisiana
13-Colorado State over Utah
12-Duquesne over St. Bonaventure
11-Rhode Island over George Washington
10-Air Force over TCU
9-West Virginia over Connecticut
8-Tennessee over South Carolina
7-Rutgers over DePaul
6-Southern Miss over UAB
5-Maryland over Miami (Fla.)
4-North Carolina over Florida State
3-East Carolina over Memphis
2-Arizona State over Oregon
1-Mercer over Lipscomb




Since: Feb 22, 2009
Posted on: March 2, 2011 7:27 am
 

Daily Picks: 03/02 - 03/03... BIT Play-In Round

Set A
2-Belmont over Kennesaw State
19-American over Colgate
18-Quinnipiac over Mount St. Mary's
17-Duke over Clemson
16-Brigham Young over New Mexico
15-Temple over Massachusetts
14-St. John's over Seton Hall
13-Minnesota over Northwestern
12-Jacksonville over North Florida
11-Oklahoma over Texas Tech
10-Texas-El Paso over Marshall
9-Arkansas over Mississippi State
8-Central Connecticut State over St. Francis (N.Y.)
7-Cincinnati over Marquette
6-Drake over Bradley
5-Washington State over Southern California
4-Tulsa over Rice
3-Idaho over Fresno State
2-Colorado over Iowa State
1-Buffalo over Miami (Ohio)



Set B
20-LIU-Brooklyn over St. Francis (Pa.)
19-Bucknell over Army
18-Memphis over East Carolina
17-Rhode Island over George Washington
16-Duquesne over St. Bonaventure
15-Kansas over Texas A&M
14-McNeese State over Southeastern Louisiana
13-E. Tennessee State over Campbell
12-North Carolina over Florida State
11-UCLA over Washington
10-Utah over Colorado State
9-Arizona State over Oregon
8-Tennessee over South Carolina
7-Maryland over Miami (Fla.)
6-West Virginia over Connecticut
5-Rutgers over DePaul
4-TCU over Air Force
3-UAB over Southern Miss
2-Lipscomb over Mercer
1-Wagner over Robert Morris




Since: Nov 29, 2008
Posted on: March 2, 2011 2:12 am
 

Daily Picks: 03/02 - 03/03... BIT Play-In Round

1. North Carolina (RBI: 1): (WW=10, +93) / (WL=0, 0) / (LL=1, -15) / (LW=0, 0)
That's slightly amazing.

Set A
20-Belmont over Kennesaw State
19-American over Colgate
18-Duke over Clemson
17-Brigham Young over New Mexico
16-Quinnipiac over Mount St. Mary's
15-Buffalo over Miami (Ohio)
14-Massachusetts over Temple
13-Central Connecticut State over St. Francis (N.Y.)
12-Arkansas over Mississippi State
11-Idaho over Fresno State
10-Texas-El Paso over Marshall
9-Texas Tech over Oklahoma
8-Jacksonville over North Florida
7-Washington State over Southern California
6-Bradley over Drake
5-Northwestern over Minnesota
4-Marquette over Cincinnati
3-St. John's over Seton Hall
2-Iowa State over Colorado
1-Tulsa over Rice

Set B

20-Bucknell over Army
19-Long Island over St. Francis (Pa.)
18-Kansas over Texas A&M
17-Duquesne over St. Bonaventure
16-East Tennessee State over Campbell
15-Robert Morris over Wagner
14-McNeese State over Southeastern Louisiana
13-Washington over UCLA
12-Colorado State over Utah
11-Air Force over TCU
10-Rhode Island over George Washington
9-Rutgers over DePaul
8-Tennessee over South Carolina
7-West Virginia over Connecticut
6-Southern Miss over UAB
5-Maryland over Miami (Fla.)
4-North Carolina over Florida State
3-Lipscomb over Mercer
2-Oregon over Arizona State
1-East Carolina over Memphis



Since: Jan 25, 2008
Posted on: March 2, 2011 12:32 am
 

Daily Picks: 03/02 - 03/03... BIT Play-In Round

Great minds think alike!!!  Here's the RBI for teams that selected at least 10 times:

1. North Carolina (RBI: 1): (WW=10, +93) / (WL=0, 0) / (LL=1, -15) / (LW=0, 0)
2. Oklahoma State (RBI: 0.958): (WW=3, +24) / (WL=0, 0) / (LL=8, -45) / (LW=1, +3)
3. Ohio State (RBI: 0.955): (WW=8, +84) / (WL=1, -2) / (LL=1, -1) / (LW=1, +2)
4. Northwestern (RBI: 0.921): (WW=3, +21) / (WL=1, -3) / (LL=7, -72) / (LW=1, +5)
5. Kansas State (RBI: 0.885): (WW=5, +32) / (WL=1, -1) / (LL=4, -45) / (LW=1, +9)
6. UCLA (RBI: 0.843): (WW=7, +68) / (WL=2, -6) / (LL=1, -7) / (LW=1, +8)
7. Miami (Fla.) (RBI: 0.826): (WW=2, +15) / (WL=4, -4) / (LL=4, -42) / (LW=1, +8)
8. Colorado (RBI: 0.821): (WW=3, +14) / (WL=1, -1) / (LL=6, -55) / (LW=1, +14)
9. Maryland (RBI: 0.821): (WW=5, +23) / (WL=2, -12) / (LL=4, -32) / (LW=0, 0)
10. Michigan State (RBI: 0.821): (WW=4, +40) / (WL=2, -12) / (LL=4, -24) / (LW=1, +2)
11. Rutgers (RBI: 0.808): (WW=1, +6) / (WL=1, -6) / (LL=8, -99) / (LW=1, +19)
12. Purdue (RBI: 0.8): (WW=4, +42) / (WL=2, -8) / (LL=4, -10) / (LW=2, +5)
13. Pittsburgh (RBI: 0.775): (WW=7, +79) / (WL=3, -20) / (LL=0, 0) / (LW=1, +3)
14. West Virginia (RBI: 0.768): (WW=4, +33) / (WL=1, -15) / (LL=6, -40) / (LW=2, +7)
15. Michigan (RBI: 0.767): (WW=4, +37) / (WL=0, 0) / (LL=6, -42) / (LW=3, +24)
16. Marquette (RBI: 0.748): (WW=3, +45) / (WL=2, -6) / (LL=4, -35) / (LW=2, +21)
17. Georgia (RBI: 0.725): (WW=3, +20) / (WL=4, -10) / (LL=4, -38) / (LW=1, +12)
18. Texas A&M (RBI: 0.723): (WW=6, +53) / (WL=2, -26) / (LL=3, -15) / (LW=0, 0)
19. James Madison (RBI: 0.722): (WW=3, +29) / (WL=0, 0) / (LL=6, -36) / (LW=2, +25)
20. Georgetown (RBI: 0.689): (WW=6, +64) / (WL=1, -13) / (LL=3, -7) / (LW=2, +19)
21. Cincinnati (RBI: 0.677): (WW=3, +31) / (WL=3, -5) / (LL=3, -34) / (LW=3, +26)
22. Louisville (RBI: 0.658): (WW=6, +47) / (WL=2, -23) / (LL=4, -28) / (LW=1, +16)
23. New Mexico (RBI: 0.653): (WW=4, +33) / (WL=2, -21) / (LL=4, -33) / (LW=1, +14)
24. Nebraska (RBI: 0.594): (WW=2, +11) / (WL=2, -8) / (LL=5, -46) / (LW=2, +31)
25. Vanderbilt (RBI: 0.585): (WW=6, +44) / (WL=3, -30) / (LL=1, -4) / (LW=1, +4)
26. Syracuse (RBI: 0.584): (WW=4, +48) / (WL=5, -37) / (LL=2, -11) / (LW=2, +5)
27. Stanford (RBI: 0.524): (WW=1, +7) / (WL=2, -12) / (LL=5, -36) / (LW=3, +27)
28. Connecticut (RBI: 0.519): (WW=5, +38) / (WL=4, -33) / (LL=1, -3) / (LW=2, +5)
29. Memphis (RBI: 0.482): (WW=4, +26) / (WL=4, -20) / (LL=1, -1) / (LW=2, +9)
30. St. John's (RBI: 0.384): (WW=1, +5) / (WL=1, -5) / (LL=4, -28) / (LW=7, +48)
31. Villanova (RBI: 0.38): (WW=5, +39) / (WL=6, -58) / (LL=1, -2) / (LW=1, +9)
32. Washington State (RBI: 0.358): (WW=2, +15) / (WL=4, -31) / (LL=2, -14) / (LW=3, +21)



Since: Nov 29, 2008
Posted on: March 2, 2011 12:28 am
 

Daily Picks: 03/02 - 03/03... BIT Play-In Round

Picks later, but for now...

Beer - That's really awesome you could do that! Those are some very interesting numbers, and it's a cool idea to take into account when we expected them to lose as part of their reliability. Interesting that Villanova would be the lowest reliability... guess they were inconsistent this year, yet always seem to be ranked. It's also kind of incredible we were wrong about West Virginia and Michigan only three times each over the course of 13 picks... nver would have thought to see those two on top of the list. It would be interesting to see a Top 10 Most Reliable at some point, but to do that you'd probably need to take into account sample size somehow... ah well. It's very interesting what you've done there and I hope to see more!



Since: Jan 25, 2008
Posted on: March 2, 2011 12:14 am
 

Daily Picks: 03/02 - 03/03... BIT Play-In Round

Set A
20-Belmont over Kennesaw State
19-American over Colgate
18-Temple over Massachusetts
17-Quinnipiac over Mount St. Mary's
16-Tulsa over Rice
15-St. John's over Seton Hall
14-Brigham Young over New Mexico
13-Idaho over Fresno State
12-Jacksonville over North Florida
11-Colorado over Iowa State
10-Duke over Clemson
9-Central Connecticut State over St. Francis (N.Y.)
8-Drake over Bradley
7-Minnesota over Northwestern
6-Arkansas over Mississippi State
5-Cincinnati over Marquette
4-Southern California over Washington State
3-Texas-El Paso over Marshall
2-Buffalo over Miami (Ohio)
1-Texas Tech over Oklahoma

Set B
20-Bucknell over Army
19-E. Tennessee State over Campbell
18-LIU-Brooklyn over St. Francis (Pa.)
17-Rutgers over DePaul
16-Air Force over TCU
15-McNeese State over Southeastern Louisiana
14-Memphis over East Carolina
13-Rhode Island over George Washington
12-Tennessee over South Carolina
11-Colorado State over Utah
10-Robert Morris over Wagner
9-North Carolina over Florida State
8-Duquesne over St. Bonaventure
7-Kansas over Texas A&M
6-UCLA over Washington
5-Southern Miss over UAB
4-West Virginia over Connecticut
3-Miami (Fla.) over Maryland
2-Arizona State over Oregon
1-Mercer over Lipscomb




Since: Jan 25, 2008
Posted on: March 1, 2011 11:36 pm
 

Daily Picks: 03/02 - 03/03... BIT Play-In Round

s0merand0mdude - Just to get started on our tangent, check out the data for the 5 Gonzaga games we picked and the methodology that I developed based on that data:

4 times they were the favorite for a total of 26 points.
- They won 2 of those games for +18 points (WW)
- They lost 2 of those games for -8 points (WL)

1 time they were the underdog for a total of -8 points.
- They won that game for +8 points (LW)

Going forward, the "Legend" is as follows:
WW = Picked to WIN and WON
WL = Picked to WIN and LOST
LL = Picked to LOSE and LOST
LW = Picked to LOSE and WON

If I were to create some type of reliability index, I would take the absolute value of the consensus picks.  For Gonzaga, that would be equal to 34 (26 + 8).  Then, I would take the absolute value of the "Accurate" consensus picks (WW+LL).  That's 18 points for Gonzaga.  Their RBI, "Reliability Beer Index", would be 18 / 34 on .529.  Just to give you a point of reference, here is the data for the teams we picked the most (13 times each):

West Virginia (RBI: 0.768): (WW=4, +33) / (WL=1, -15) / (LL=6, -40) / (LW=2, +7)
Michigan (RBI: 0.767): (WW=4, +37) / (WL=0, 0) / (LL=6, -42) / (LW=3, +24)
Louisville (RBI: 0.658): (WW=6, +47) / (WL=2, -23) / (LL=4, -28) / (LW=1, +16)
Syracuse (RBI: 0.584): (WW=4, +48) / (WL=5, -37) / (LL=2, -11) / (LW=2, +5)
St. John's (RBI: 0.384): (WW=1, +5) / (WL=1, -5) / (LL=4, -28) / (LW=7, +48)
Villanova (RBI: 0.38): (WW=5, +39) / (WL=6, -58) / (LL=1, -2) / (LW=1, +9)

Obviously, you can draw lot of conclusions by the "Breakdown" data:

A high WW number means they won the games that we thought they would.
A high WL number means they lost the games that we thought they would win.
A high LL number means they lost the games that we thought they would.
A high LW number means they were better than we thought (and won the games we thought they would lose).

Dividing the value of the picks by the count of the picks tells you how they perfomed against our expectations.  For example...

Villanova (RBI: 0.38): (WW=5, +39) / (WL=6, -58) / (LL=1, -2) / (LW=1, +9)

WW = +39/5 = 7.8... they did what they were supposed to do!
WL = -58/6 = -9.7... they killed us all!
LL = -2/1 = -2... no surprise!
LW = +9/1 = 9... pretty big upset!

Let me know what you think... I have the data for every team we picked this year!




Since: Jan 20, 2009
Posted on: March 1, 2011 10:23 pm
 

Daily Picks: 03/02 - 03/03... BIT Play-In Round

Set A
20-Belmont over Kennesaw State
19-Duke over Clemson
18-Brigham Young over New Mexico
17-American over Colgate
16-Texas-El Paso over Marshall
15-Arkansas over Mississippi State
14-Temple over Massachusetts
13-Idaho over Fresno State
12-Marquette over Cincinnati
11-Quinnipiac over Mount St. Mary's
10-Colorado over Iowa State
9-Tulsa over Rice
8-Jacksonville over North Florida
7-Seton Hall over St. John's
6-Central Connecticut State over St. Francis (N.Y.)
5-Southern California over Washington State
4-Bradley over Drake
3-Minnesota over Northwestern
2-Oklahoma over Texas Tech
1-Miami (Ohio) over Buffalo

Set B
20-Kansas over Texas A&M
19-Bucknell over Army
18-E. Tennessee State over Campbell
17-LIU-Brooklyn over St. Francis (Pa.)
16-McNeese State over Southeastern Louisiana
15-Colorado State over Utah
14-Duquesne over St. Bonaventure
13-Tennessee over South Carolina
12-Air Force over TCU
11-Washington over UCLA
10-Lipscomb over Mercer
9-Rhode Island over George Washington
8-North Carolina over Florida State
7-Rutgers over DePaul
6-Southern Miss over UAB
5-Memphis over East Carolina
4-Arizona State over Oregon
3-Connecticut over West Virginia
2-Miami (Fla.) over Maryland
1-Wagner over Robert Morris


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com