Blog Entry

Beer's Bracket - 03/06/11 as of 12PM ET

Posted on: March 6, 2011 12:51 pm
Edited on: March 6, 2011 3:38 pm
 

Auto bids are in CAPS and First Four games are italicized.  Championship: Newark (E) / Anaheim (W) winner vs. New Orleans (SE) / San Antonio (SW) winner.

Newark (E)
(1E) OHIO STATE (28-2) vs. (16E) NORTHERN COLORADO (17-10) @Cleveland
(8E) GEORGE MASON (26-5) vs. (9E) UTAH STATE (27-3) @Cleveland
(5E) Texas A&M (22-7) vs. (12E) Michigan State (16-13) / Clemson (20-10) @DC
(4E) St. John's (20-10) vs. (13E) BUCKNELL (23-8) @DC
(6E) Vanderbilt (21-9) vs. (11E) Washington (20-10) @Cleveland
(3E) Syracuse (25-6) vs. (14E) WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE (19-12) @Cleveland
(7E) Cincinnati (24-7) vs. (10E) Richmond (24-7) @Charlotte
(2E) Duke (27-4) vs. (15E) MOREHEAD STATE (22-9) @Charlotte

Anaheim (W)
(1W) Notre Dame (25-5) vs. (16W) BETHUNE-COOKMAN (16-11) / TEXAS SOUTHERN (18-11) @Chicago
(8W) Kansas State (21-9) vs. (9W) Florida State (20-9) @Chicago
(5W) Georgetown (21-9) vs. (12W) HARVARD (21-5) @Tampa
(4W) Kentucky (21-8) vs. (13W) BELMONT (30-4) @Tampa
(6W) Missouri (21-9) vs. (11W) Gonzaga (21-9) @Tuscon
(3W) Wisconsin (23-6) vs. (14W) COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON (23-9) @Tuscon
(7W) Temple (24-6) vs. (10W) Marquette (18-13) @Denver
(2W) BRIGHAM YOUNG (27-3) vs. (15W) LONG BEACH STATE (18-10) @Denver

New Orleans (SE)
(1M) KANSAS (29-2) vs. (16M) FLORIDA ATLANTIC (19-9) @Tulsa
(8M) Old Dominion (25-6) vs. (9M) Tennessee (18-12) @Tulsa
(5M) ARIZONA (25-6) vs. (12M) Michigan (18-12) / Virginia Tech (19-10) @Tulsa
(4M) Louisville (23-8) vs. (13M) MISSOURI STATE (25-7) @Tulsa
(6M) West Virginia (20-10) vs. (11M) UAB (22-7) @Charlotte
(3M) NORTH CAROLINA (24-6) vs. (14M) FAIRFIELD (24-6) @Charlotte
(7M) UNLV (23-7) vs. (10M) ST. MARY'S (21-7) @Chicago
(2M) Purdue (25-6) vs. (15M) KENT STATE (20-10) @Chicago

San Antonio (SW)
(1S) PITTSBURGH (27-4) vs. (16S) NC-ASHEVILLE (16-13) / MCNEESE STATE (15-10) @DC
(8S) UCLA (22-9) vs. (9S) Illinois (19-12) @DC
(5S) Connecticut (21-9) vs. (12S) Butler (21-9) @Tampa
(4S) FLORIDA (24-6) vs. (13S) OAKLAND (22-9) @Tampa
(6S) XAVIER (24-6) vs. (11S) Boston College (18-11) @Tuscon
(3S) San Diego State (27-2) vs. (14S) LIU-BROOKLYN (25-5) @Tuscon
(7S) Villanova (21-10) vs. (10S) Georgia (20-10) @Denver
(2S) Texas (25-6) vs. (15S) VERMONT (23-7) @Denver

Last Six Pack: Gonzaga (21-9), Butler (21-9), Michigan (18-12), Virginia Tech (19-10), Michigan State (16-13), Clemson (20-10)

Added: HARVARD (21-5), NC-ASHEVILLE (16-13)
Dropped: Princeton (22-6), Coastal Carolina (24-5)

NIT 1 Seeds: Memphis (22-9), Colorado (18-12), New Mexico (19-11), Alabama (20-10)
NIT 2 Seeds: Colorado State (18-11), Southern California (18-13), Penn State (15-13), Virginia Commonwealth (22-10)
NIT 3 Seeds: Nebraska (19-11), Minnesota (17-12), Washington State (19-11), Marshall (19-10)
NIT 4 Seeds: Princeton (22-6), Texas-El Paso (22-8), Baylor (17-12), Oklahoma State (18-12)

Moving Up: Notre Dame (25-5), NORTH CAROLINA (24-6), Kentucky (21-8), ARIZONA (25-6), Texas A&M (22-7), UTAH STATE (27-3), ST. MARY'S (21-7), Richmond (24-7), UAB (22-7), Gonzaga (21-9)
Moving Down: Duke (27-4), Louisville (23-8), Georgetown (21-9), Vanderbilt (21-9), Villanova (21-10), Washington (20-10), Virginia Tech (19-10), Michigan State (16-13)

Top 5 First Round Individual Matchups
Game 1: (3W) Wisconsin vs. (14W) College of Charleston @ Tuscon: Jon Leuer (19 PPG) / Andrew Goudelock (23.1 PPG)
Game 2: (6S) Xavier vs. (11S) Boston College @ Tuscon: Tu Holloway (20.1 PPG) / Reggie Jackson (18.5 PPG)
Game 3: (2E) Duke vs. (15E) Morehead State @ Charlotte: Nolan Smith (21.6 PPG) / Kenneth Faried (17.6 PPG)
Game 4: (1E) Ohio State vs. (16E) Northern Colorado @ Cleveland: Jared Sullinger (17.1 PPG) / Devon Beitzel (21 PPG)
Game 5: (2W) Brigham Young vs. (15W) Long Beach State @ Denver: Jimmer Fredette (27.9 PPG) / Casper Ware (16.9 PPG)

Top 5 Potential Second Round Individual Matchups (Assumes Seeds 12 or Better Advance)
Game 1: (10E) Richmond vs. (2E) Duke @ Charlotte: Justin Harper (18 PPG) / Nolan Smith (21.6 PPG)
Game 2: (1W) Notre Dame vs. (8W) Kansas State @ Chicago: Ben Hansbrough (18.5 PPG) / Jacob Pullen (19.6 PPG)
Game 3: (10M) St. Mary's vs. (2M) Purdue @ Chicago: Mickey McConnell (16.8 PPG) / JaJuan Johnson (20.5 PPG)
Game 4: (10W) Marquette vs. (2W) Brigham Young @ Denver: Jimmy Butler (16.2 PPG) / Jimmer Fredette (27.9 PPG)
Game 5: (5W) Georgetown vs. (4W) Kentucky @ Tampa: Austin Freeman (17.8 PPG) / Brandon Knight (17.7 PPG)

My First & Second Round Ticket For Thursday & Saturday Games
Tuscon: Andrew Goudelock (23.1 PPG), Tu Holloway (20.1 PPG), Jon Leuer (19 PPG), Reggie Jackson (18.5 PPG), Marcus Denmon (16.8 PPG)

My First & Second Round Ticket For Friday & Sunday Games
Cleveland: Devon Beitzel (21 PPG), John Jenkins (19.4 PPG), Jared Sullinger (17.1 PPG), Isaiah Thomas (16.6 PPG), Anthony Hill (15.6 PPG)

Average Distance Traveled
First & Second Round Matchups: 764 miles
Regional Matchups (Assumes Seeds 4 or Better Advance): Newark (E): 875 miles, Anaheim (W): 3528 miles, New Orleans (SE): 1788 miles, San Antonio (SW): 2133 miles

The Bottom of the NIT: Southern Miss (18-9), Cleveland State (24-8), Drexel (21-10), Miami (Fla.) (18-12), California (17-13), Wichita State (23-8), Maryland (18-13), Northwestern (17-12), UCF (18-10), Valparaiso (21-11), Mississippi (19-12), Iona (21-10), Duquesne (17-11), James Madison (21-11), Coastal Carolina (24-5), Murray State (21-8)

Category: NCAAB
Comments

Since: Jan 25, 2008
Posted on: March 6, 2011 7:36 pm
 

Beer's Bracket - 03/06/11 as of 12PM ET

No.1 OSU, Kansas, Pitt, Duke, No.2 ND, Purdue, UNC, CUSE, No. 3 SDSU, Texas, Wisconsin, Florida

I still have Notre Dame as a #1 seed over Duke (Wins and losses are better).  Can't argue with UNC or 'Cuse as a 2 seed but I still believe BYU gets one of those spots.  By including BYU as a 2 seed, obviously I don't have room for Florida as a 3 seed.



Since: Mar 6, 2009
Posted on: March 6, 2011 6:32 pm
 

Beer's Bracket - 03/06/11 as of 12PM ET

Paintcrew-where is BYU? I think they deserve a two seed-but at worst a number 3, even with the recent Davies issues.



Since: Feb 18, 2007
Posted on: March 6, 2011 6:18 pm
 

Beer's Bracket - 03/06/11 as of 12PM ET

Losing by 28 points should bring them down now. My top three lines are No.1 OSU, Kansas, Pitt, Duke, No.2 ND, Purdue, UNC, CUSE, No. 3 SDSU, Texas, Wisconsin, Florida



Since: Jan 17, 2008
Posted on: March 6, 2011 4:04 pm
 

Beer's Bracket - 03/06/11 as of 12PM ET

paintcrew, not true. I am just trying to compare them. Unlike Beer, I do NOT use any predictions to make my brackets. If Wisconsin loses yes, they will be behind Purdue, only because they will have one loss more than Purdue. Losing @OSU shouldn't bring them down at all in reality.

I also can't use games that teams "almost" loss. A win is a win. A good team needs to pull out a win against a team #168 in RPI. Whether it's Purdue, Michigan State, or anyone else. IF you have looked at by last bracket, there was no bias against Purdue.

Purdue was almost a 1 seed until yesterday. I don't like Purdue, but I don't let my bias against them dictate how I rank them.




Since: Feb 18, 2007
Posted on: March 6, 2011 3:28 pm
 

Beer's Bracket - 03/06/11 as of 12PM ET

Sorry Hoosierguy, but just by your name no one can take your opinions about Purdue seriously because you have a natural bias against Purdue, just like I have one for them only a positive one. When Wisconsin loses today Purdue should definitly be ahead of Wisconsin. Probably won't be close then. Wisconsin had to force OT to beat Iowa @ Iowa so it's not like Purdue is the only team to struggle there. Even MSU got killed by Iowa. Also Purdue has two top 10 wins ( Wisconsin and OSU)



Since: Jan 17, 2008
Posted on: March 6, 2011 2:55 pm
 

Beer's Bracket - 03/06/11 as of 12PM ET

It's very very close. But with that info. I give UNC a slight edge over Wisconsin, and Wisconsin a slight edge ove Purdue.



Since: Jan 17, 2008
Posted on: March 6, 2011 2:52 pm
 

Beer's Bracket - 03/06/11 as of 12PM ET

If you look at Purdue and Wisconsin, their resume is very similar. If Wisconsin were to win today, they would obviously be ahead.

I think SDSU should be ahead of them. Better RPI.

Purdue Top 25 RPI Wins: 6
SDSU: 5

SDSU Losses over 75: 0
Purdue: 1

In fact, SDSU's losses are both in the Top 5. Purdue has 3 losses over the Top 50!

Let's Look at Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Purdue:

SOS:
Wisconsin (35) Purdue (20) North Carolina (10)

RPI:
Wisconsin (13) Purdue (8) North Carolina (7)

Top 25 Wins:
Wisconsin (2) Purdue (2) North Carolina (2)

Top 10 Wins:
Wisconsin (2) Purdue (1) North Carolina (1)

Top 50 Wins:
Wisconsin (5) Purdue (6) North Carolina (6)

Losses 75+
Wisconsin (0) Purdue (1) North Carolina (1)

Losses 100+
Wisconsin (0) Purdue (1) North Carolina (1)

Record:
Wisconsin (23-6) Purdue (25-6) North Carolina (24-6)

Last 5 Games:
Wisconsin (4-1; Lost to #20) Purdue (4-1; Lost to #168) North Carolina (5-0)




Since: Jan 25, 2008
Posted on: March 6, 2011 2:21 pm
 

Beer's Bracket - 03/06/11 as of 12PM ET

Fair question about Purdue but I'll ask you which team should take their place...

In my index, Purdue has 2 Top 25 wins, 6 25-50 wins, and 7 50-110 wins.  That’s 15 top 100 wins… Texas has 12, SDSU has 11, Wisconsin has 13, Syracuse has 15, and UNC has 18.  Here is a breakdown of their losses:

Purdue (6): 3 Top 25, 1 25-50, 1 50-100, 1 100+
Texas (6): 3 Top 25, 3 50-100
SDSU (2): 2 Top 25
Wisconsin (6): 3 Top 25, 2 25-50, 1 50-100
Syracuse (6): 3 Top 25, 2 25-50, 1 50-100
UNC (6): 2 Top 25, 2 25-50, 1 50-100, 1 100+

With that in mind, maybe SDSU has a case... 4 fewer losses but 4 fewer Top 50 wins:

Purdue: 2 Top 25 wins, 6 25-50 wins, and 7 50-110 wins
SDSU: 2 Top 25 wins, 2 25-50 wins, 7 50-100 wins

Do you think SDSU, Wisconsin, Syracuse, or UNC should be 2 seeds?  UNC probably has the best case.




Since: Jan 17, 2008
Posted on: March 6, 2011 1:19 pm
 

Beer's Bracket - 03/06/11 as of 12PM ET

Beer, I'm curious to why you think Purdue is still a two seed, and I'm not criticizing you, I'm just wondering.


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