Blog Entry

Like a deer stuck in the headlights...

Posted on: March 19, 2009 6:17 pm

 Hey fellow fantasy baseball drafters,

For some of us it has been a while since we banked on a particular player only to see him go right in front of us.  While for many I'm sure it happens every time you draft.  Don't be ashamed it can happen to even the best of us.  A while back I came up with a way to protect against this from happening and no it is not your already documented "tier" system of drafting or even "best player available".  Both of those can still leave you second guessing when it comes time for your pick.  I must state that my advice or theory does imply that the rest of your "prepping" is complete and you know your players. 

Without stringing you along any further here is what I suggest for those that want to set themselves up for their "best" possible draft.  Quite simply take how many teams are in your league and draft for each team as if it was your own.  Yup, its as simple as that.  With each pick you should be taking the guy that you feel should go there as if it was your actual pick.  It is best to do this before you know where your team will actually be drafting because when you know that info you may cheat your other teams picks as if to allow for the best case scenario (that's bad).  By taking your top guy with each pick for each teams needs you will by the time you are done have what you can also use as an overall ranking of how you view all of the players you feel should be drafted in your league as well.  So not only do you wind up with a mock draft that should provide with appropriate gauges on where guys should fall it also allows you to see how you rank each position from top to bottom. 

Finally as draft day comes you find out where exactly you are picking.  You check your "mock draft" and see what kind of guys you could be looking at.  Now here comes the best part.  I know full well that everyone in your league or any league is not going to draft just the way you did your mock draft however when they do that it allows for guys that you had "drafted" ahead of your next potential choice to fall to you.  At that point you know that should be a good value pick.  Now obviously you are not going to take Aramis Ramirez over Dan Uggla just because you have him ranked over him if you already have David Wright and Evan Longoria at 3B.  What you will see though with having that list overall and for your "pre-draft" team is that there will be more than one option and you will always be either ahead of what you figured you would have to pick from or right around that selection.

I don't want to say everyone can't use this method because they can but it generally works better for those that have spent the time going thru and being confident with all of their rankings for players.  Fantasy drafts are like anything else in life in that the better prepared you are for a situation the better the results will be.  Look at this as one more way to take you to that next step.  By the way, as we all know, there are plenty of ways or methods to do that with.  I just figured in a time of number crunching analysis to the point you cant sleep at night I would share a good practice that uses your hard fought number crunching results to benefit you come draft time and hopefully help make it that much more enjoyable.  I am one of those guys that thinks the draft is one of if not the most enjoyable part of the season... but that's just me.

Good luck to all!!!  

Category: Fantasy Baseball
Tags: Draft

Since: Mar 6, 2009
Posted on: March 20, 2009 2:15 pm

Like a deer stuck in the headlights...

Good idea because now you have a guideline to help determine good solid picks versus picks where you may be reaching. I do agree with this method of preparation.

In the league of which I have been drafting for around fifteen years there are tendancies that occur almost every season. You have to prepare for contingencies. I recall last season's draft where I lost focus temporarily because I had locked on Johan Santana and he was taken just previous to my first pick and than Albert Pujols was taken the pick before my second choice. Aware of that for this seasons draft I am prepared to be flexible and have figured out two different scenarios for getting Santana or say a stud hitter with  my first choice. I prefer the hitter early approach as it seems that the stud hitters available are less than quality pitchers. Also I believe that hitters are more predictable than pitchers taking into account the higher loss rate of pitchers versus hitters. Losing a stud pitcher taken early in a draft can sink a team that passed on a stud bat to take that pitcher.

Also my belief is that you try to go best value in as many choices as you can early in any draft and don't reach for a player if at all possible. When the top tier guys at a position are drafted go somewhere else and come back to that position later in the draft. I'd rather have two top of the line first baseman than one and a second tier third baseman because I felt a need to reach for that third baseman. Place overall team value over trying to fill out your roster sheet. Maybe you end up weak at say second base, but thats okay as you can always try to upgrade through trading or the waiver wire. It's a long season and guys show up to fill holes on occasion. Late in any draft I believe this is where you use your gut feelings on some players especially young players. Don't take that veteran that has always produced average numbers every single year of his career, instead go for the young prospect or second or third year player that you think will be a good chance to take. Heck you can always go to the waiver wire and find an average player if your hunch doesn't work out.Another tip is to be carefull not to follow the leader. I recall a draft where five guys in a row took closers and I grabbed a quality outfielder instead of following the leader. The best part of that move was that I drafted Eric Gagne as my last pick in that draft and that was the beginning of his pheonminal run as the closer for the Dodgers.

Remember in drafting that you'll make some great choices and you'll make some that you'll look back on and say " what was I thinking", and that is part of the fun. FUN. Remember it's for FUN. Enjoy and the best of all of you drafting this year except of course those of you drafting against me. Ha Ha.


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