Blog Entry

Projections???

Posted on: March 25, 2009 4:30 pm
 

 Today, I would like to talk about projecting stats for fantasy baseball.  I'm sure most if not all of us are aware of the law of averages and the applied practice of using a players previous 3 seasons to come up with their projected numbers for an upcoming season.  I am totally aware that this method typically provides the most reliable results but even that only falls into the 60% to 70% range of accuracy.  Any fantasy gamer that spends a reasonable amount of time doing their "homework" on players can figure out an average over the last 3 seasons without having someone else spell it out for us.  What I want to see from a fantasy baseball publication or site are some "real" projections.  I want to see some writers that have access to these guys more than the rest of us coming out and saying "player X is in great shape this year and I see this as the year he goes from being a perennial .280-85-20-80-10 player to a .295-95-30-100-20 player.  He told me in an interview he wants to steal more this year and given the added protection in his lineup and his attitude and approach I can see increases across the board."  That is something I want to see someone go on record as saying and go across the league with and in both directions, also indicating players they feel will decline. 

I have been involved with Baseball in one way shape or form going back about as far as I can remember, over 30 years... thanks Dad!  Over the course of my tenure with America's past time I have developed a keen eye for talent and overall recognition of the skill set required to excel in this sport.  I'm not trying to brag by saying this but I have noticed that when I see a guy early on and I feel like he has the tools and skill set to excel, more often than not those guys become stars and future fantasy studs.  Since I'm not published or writing for any widely used site my skills are used primarily for my fantasy teams success and it usually stops there outside of a couple pointers to some friends or family.  Essentially what I am getting at is I will use the common 3 year projections we all see and then take my personal projections for each guy based on numerous other factors, some known to all and some not, when determining how a player will perform for an upcoming season.  Personally I believe that is what gives me or anyone else using a like method an edge.  If we all just drafted in line with the 3 year averages and didn't use much else in the way of insight than we would all leave the draft about equal and it would be a crapshoot who would finish higher than the next.  However, unless you did just use a cheat sheet provided by a given site than you will or should have a leg up.

I will say again, I want to see more "out on a limb" projections from these guys.  I don't want to get responses saying so and so likes him and he thinks he could do this because if you go further to check so and so's actual numbers for what they project they never follow thru with their hunches.  For once I want to see them follow thru with it.  Don't get me wrong I enjoy reading what a good portion of these guys have to say and write, for instance I think for CBS Scott White is usually on the ball and writes some very intuitive articles.  However I would like to see a source come out and really take a shot at some against the grain type projecting.  I know the average correct probably won't be that high but if readers are at all like me they want to know if there are any other reliable sources out there that think this could be the year Jimmy Rollins declines and reflects that in their projections.  Or maybe this is the year Alex Gordon hits the ground running and puts up David Wright like numbers and they put those numbers as their projections.  If any of you guys want to hire me and pay me to do it I would be glad to (but I doubt that will happen).  As fantasy sports continue to grow and support for it's interest escalates with more sites devoted to it and more publications coming out with "guides" for us to choose from we are getting an overkill now of the "safe" projections.  Start providing sources that take that chance and clue us in better to when a player will have a career year by actually predicting it with numbers to go with the statement of "this guy may be poised for a career year".  Anybody can say that and just fall back on the safe numbers when it comes time to project the stats so start walking the walk after all that talk. 

If anyone actually reads this novella and is interested in some of "my" projections let me know.  I'd be glad to oblige.  That's all I got for now though.   

    

Category: Fantasy Baseball
Tags: Projections
 
Comments

Since: Jan 21, 2009
Posted on: April 18, 2009 12:40 pm
 

Projections???

Hey Master Jeff,

Good stuff and thanks for the heads up about the MLB's team message board here.  I'll be sure to check that out. 

Another thing that cracks me up with some sites and some people who blog or post on here are the "superstar overnight" guys.  Bonifacio seems to be this seasons early example.  The guy goes off in the first week and people are comparing him to "last seasons Nate McLouth" and are dropping solid players just to pick him up.  I understand a big part of it is that every team owner wants to be that guy that grabbed the next big thing but the writing is on the wall with that kid.  His plate discipline or lack there of indicates that his hot start will end... it may have already.  His last couple games have been bad and he hasn't swiped a bag in his last 6 starts.  The comparison to a guy like McLouth last season carries little similarity.  McLouth going into last season had the tools to succeed and at least be a solid everyday starter for his team.  One of the main reasons he was not drafted in more leagues was because of the possible question around his playing time and the lack of a long track record to go on.    

LET'S GO METS!!!

Have you been to Citi Field yet?  I grew up in Jersey but live in Colorado now.  I was trying to plan a trip to be back for the Mets home opener this year but couldn't work it out.  I am interested to hear some reviews on the stadium as the ones I have read have been pretty mixed.  The one thing I know is that I hate the new dimensions and big wall in left.  I am a big David Wright fan and he will definitely lose a few HR's because of the Mets desire to build a pitchers park.




Since: Oct 27, 2006
Posted on: April 17, 2009 7:45 pm
 

Projections???

You make an excellent point about the lack of real insight given by the "experts." All you get from them is lists of who is turning 27, or pitchers hitting their third year. You would think that guys that get paid to sit around an write about fantasy baseball could at least scroll down the player page to see his statistical history and come up with some analysis. My first BLOG post looks at how good the experts are at coming up with their "can't miss" prospect list, and the results are not pretty.

A good source I have been using for a couple years is the MLB team's message board on this site. In spring training when I wanted to know the inside scoop in the Cardinal's closer battle I posted a thread on the Cardinal's board asking the fans. I know as a guy that listens to NY Sports talk, and reads the local sports sections, I have access to details and analysis about the Mets and Yankees that the rest of the country does not see.

 




Since: Mar 6, 2009
Posted on: March 26, 2009 3:04 am
 

Projections???

You really have hit a homer here. It's pretty easy to sit down with a calculator and divide by three but to see that for instance Prince Fielder came into spring training having lost twenty pounds or that Matt Cain took the off season more seriously this past year may add to the equation for these two guys. I believe that Andruw Jones got a big contract and just decided to mail it in as far as conditioning was concerned. It may be also that some of these guys don't want to agravate some fans by coming out and saying that Derek Jeter is in a state of decline and that he really should move out of the shortstop position so as not to hurt the Yankees defensivley. It's safer to avoid such statements and not incur the rath of the multitude of Jeter fans. It's just a safe way for these guys to sell their fantasy publications and articles. I agree that someone should step up to the plate and take some chances with their forcasts based on info like you mentioned in your post. It's after the stats start to climb for a young player that he becomes recognized and than the pronostacaters start to push their numbers up. Has anyone called for a fifteen win season for  Kershaw or Price or maybe Cueto. Of course not that wouldn't be a safe call now would it. But to forcast forty home runs for Adam Dunn. Just check his numbers out over the past and again not alot of risk here. Pujols to win the MVP. Again great call. How about picking Jose Reyes or David Wright. Great players but not as safe.

I'd be interested in seeing some of your projections for this season. Here's some Prince Fielder to hit at least forty home runs and come in a close second to his teammate Ryan Bryaun. Hardy will also have a fine season and again approach thirty homers. Having said all that the Brew Crew will still be hurting because of the pitching even though Gallardo makes a run at the Cy Young. He can't do it all by himself though. Reyes will hit for a slightly higher average after he realizes that he's not going to hit alot of home runs in that new park and starts to use that speed to a higher level of execution. More bunt hits and trying to hit rather than swing from the heels. The Mets will win in the East and their new bullpen will pay off as they put more close games away instead of losing those.

Laporta will be a force for the Indians when he finally comes up and takes over in left field. Gordon Beckham will also shine for the White Sox later this season. Lowrie will suceed for the Red Sox and won't be seeing the pines when Lugo returns to health. Lester will be the best starter this season for the Red Sox and Beckett will once again disapoint his fantasy owners. Dice K's lack of control will make his record approach an even won and lost total as his habit of walking to many hitters will start to backfire on him.

 



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