Today, I would like to talk about projecting stats for fantasy baseball. I'm sure most if not all of us are aware of the law of averages and the applied practice of using a players previous 3 seasons to come up with their projected numbers for an upcoming season. I am totally aware that this method typically provides the most reliable results but even that only falls into the 60% to 70% range of accuracy. Any fantasy gamer that spends a reasonable amount of time doing their "homework" on players can figure out an average over the last 3 seasons without having someone else spell it out for us. What I want to see from a fantasy baseball publication or site are some "real" projections. I want to see some writers that have access to these guys more than the rest of us coming out and saying "player X is in great shape this year and I see this as the year he goes from being a perennial .280-85-20-80-10 player to a .295-95-30-100-20 player. He told me in an interview he wants to steal more this year and given the added protection in his lineup and his attitude and approach I can see increases across the board." That is something I want to see someone go on record as saying and go across the league with and in both directions, also indicating players they feel will decline.
I have been involved with Baseball in one way shape or form going back about as far as I can remember, over 30 years... thanks Dad! Over the course of my tenure with America's past time I have developed a keen eye for talent and overall recognition of the skill set required to excel in this sport. I'm not trying to brag by saying this but I have noticed that when I see a guy early on and I feel like he has the tools and skill set to excel, more often than not those guys become stars and future fantasy studs. Since I'm not published or writing for any widely used site my skills are used primarily for my fantasy teams success and it usually stops there outside of a couple pointers to some friends or family. Essentially what I am getting at is I will use the common 3 year projections we all see and then take my personal projections for each guy based on numerous other factors, some known to all and some not, when determining how a player will perform for an upcoming season. Personally I believe that is what gives me or anyone else using a like method an edge. If we all just drafted in line with the 3 year averages and didn't use much else in the way of insight than we would all leave the draft about equal and it would be a crapshoot who would finish higher than the next. However, unless you did just use a cheat sheet provided by a given site than you will or should have a leg up.
I will say again, I want to see more "out on a limb" projections from these guys. I don't want to get responses saying so and so likes him and he thinks he could do this because if you go further to check so and so's actual numbers for what they project they never follow thru with their hunches. For once I want to see them follow thru with it. Don't get me wrong I enjoy reading what a good portion of these guys have to say and write, for instance I think for CBS Scott White is usually on the ball and writes some very intuitive articles. However I would like to see a source come out and really take a shot at some against the grain type projecting. I know the average correct probably won't be that high but if readers are at all like me they want to know if there are any other reliable sources out there that think this could be the year Jimmy Rollins declines and reflects that in their projections. Or maybe this is the year Alex Gordon hits the ground running and puts up David Wright like numbers and they put those numbers as their projections. If any of you guys want to hire me and pay me to do it I would be glad to (but I doubt that will happen). As fantasy sports continue to grow and support for it's interest escalates with more sites devoted to it and more publications coming out with "guides" for us to choose from we are getting an overkill now of the "safe" projections. Start providing sources that take that chance and clue us in better to when a player will have a career year by actually predicting it with numbers to go with the statement of "this guy may be poised for a career year". Anybody can say that and just fall back on the safe numbers when it comes time to project the stats so start walking the walk after all that talk.
If anyone actually reads this novella and is interested in some of "my" projections let me know. I'd be glad to oblige. That's all I got for now though.