Blog Entry

Hypothetical Trade...

Posted on: July 20, 2009 3:17 am
 
In an interview with KJR Radio in Seattle on Friday, Brandon Roy said he's frustrated and disappointed with the Trail Blazers handling of his contract extension negotiations.

"I sit back and think about all the hard work I've put into my dream, excited about the opportunity to provide for my family," said Roy. "I go in knowing that I've come into the league and I've done everything I can do to get a max contract."

Roy was then asked how he felt about the negotiations.

"It's 50-50 right now. I'd love for something to get done so I can move forward and meet free agents."



So let's say that the Blazers decide they don't want to pay Roy the max. Let's also say that Roy feels he deserves the max and the situation gets a little ugly. David Kahn, being from Portland, offers up this deal

Al Jefferson (assume he's totally healthy) and Ricky Rubio to Portland for Brandon Roy (who resigns for a max contract prior to the trade) and Joel Pryzbilla.


Also figure that various draft picks, expiring contracts and players could be thrown in as sweeteners. The question is: would you do the trade? If not, which team would reject the deal? Why? What would it take to get it done?


Portland's Post-Trade Starting Lineup (with 3 key reserves)
PG - Ricky Rubio - Steve Blake
SG - Rudy Fernandez
SF - Travis Outlaw - Martell Webster
PF - Al Jefferson - LaMarcus Aldridge
C - Greg Oden

Portland gets a star in return who does not make max money in Jefferson. He's also the offensive post presence they sorely lack. Rubio brings the star power and forms an interesting backcourt with fellow Spainard, Fernandez. The front court gets a little crowded with Jefferson, Aldridge and Oden but with Aldridge's pending free agency and Oden's chronic injuries that would probably be a good problem to have. Plus, Jefferson and Aldridge have different games and wouldn't be redundant to eachother.


Minnesota's Post-Trade Starting Lineup (with 3 key reserves)
PG - Jonny Flynn - Sebastian Telfair
SG - Brandon Roy - Wayne Ellington
SF - Ryan Gomes - Corey Brewer
PF - Kevin Love
C - Joel Pryzbilla

Minnesota forms a dominant young backcourt with Roy and Flynn. Flynn's terrific Summer League performance and endearing personality has already won over a lot of fans. Pairing him with Roy would be exciting, to say the least. Clearing out Jefferson opens the door for Love to hold down the PF position. Pryz provides the defensive shot blocking presence to compliment Love's game. This team would be lacking big man depth and perhaps a wing depending on what happens with Brewer, but if those were their only long-term needs they'd be in good shape.

 

So I repeat, if the Roy contract situation came to a head, would you pull the trigger on this one? Feel free to elaborate.



Comments

Since: Apr 14, 2009
Posted on: August 5, 2009 10:14 pm
 

Hypothetical Trade...

Well its all a lot of useless psecultaion now since Brandon and the Blazers have agreed in principle to a new 5-year K for close to, if not, the Max



Since: Aug 3, 2007
Posted on: July 24, 2009 10:41 am
 

Hypothetical Trade...

dedman, I agree that the Blazers are committed to Oden. At the end of last season, they practically said he would be the starter. I think a concern, however, is that Oden has had 2 significant injuries already, plus the fact that last year he was often in foul trouble. I would be very surprised if they let Przybilla go in the next 2 years, until Oden can show he can stay on the floor, both in terms of health and fouls.

I also think Przybilla is being seriously underrated here. Yes, he doesn't put up big numbers, and has almost no offensive capability at all. But he is one of those guys whose real value doesn't show up in a box score. Compare him to Bruce Bowen with San Antonio 3-5 years ago. Didn't score much, but played great defense, and did the little things. Every championship team has got to have some of those guys, and Przybilla does that for the Blazers. Plus he is the only guy who isn't afraid to go nose to nose with the likes of Shaq.

The way the original trade was posed, it really boiled down to Roy for Jefferson. All other things being equal, it is not a good trade -- even if Portland doesn't pay Roy. Jefferson's health is too questionable, and I think Roy is a lot better than Jefferson anyway.



Since: Apr 10, 2008
Posted on: July 24, 2009 1:31 am
 

Hypothetical Trade...

Good debate guys.

I think Portland would let Pryz go because, for better or worse, they're committed to Oden. Pryz will make too much to be a backup.

Also, I think Portland can pay Roy, jbut the speculation is that they don't want to. If Minnesota agreed to pay him the max it could be done in the form of a sign and trade.

I agree the whole thing is unlikely. But that's what makes it fun. Also, this deal is plausible, all things considered.



Since: Aug 3, 2007
Posted on: July 23, 2009 9:17 am
 

Hypothetical Trade...

flavorflabtrub, yes I am serious.

I miswrote when I typed Richard Jefferson -- I meant Al, and I do know the difference between them.

And yes, Przybilla is one of the most important parts of the Blazers -- he is the guy who does the dirty work, and gives the team what toughness it has. Further, while I have high hopes for Greg Oden, he is still very much a work in progress, and has a history of injuries. Portland is not going to be parting with Joel Przybilla during the next couple of years. 

Also, I was not overselling his value, merely stating that -- given the conditions of the hypothesis: that the Blazers and Roy do not reach a deal -- that Roy PLUS Przybilla is too much for Jefferson. Roy straight up for Jefferson -- under those conditions only -- would make more sense.

Ricky Rubio may go on to be an NBA superstar. He may also be a bust. I just question placing a huge amount of value on a guy that may not be in the NBA for another 2 years.  Too much can happen during that time.  Now, I understand that Rubio is now saying that he doesn't want to play for Joventut next season, and may go to another team, which would not be limited by the terms of the NBA collective bargaining agreement. Thus, another European team could pay the entire buyout, which would allow Rubio & the T-Wolves to negotiate more favorable buy out terms.

Placing a lot of trade value on this guy to me is too much like placing a lot of value on a first round draft pick two years out. There is absolutely no way of knowing what you are going to get.



Since: Jun 26, 2009
Posted on: July 22, 2009 5:19 pm
 

Hypothetical Trade...

Hercher, are you serious?

First off, Richard Jefferson does not play for the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Second, did you really just call Joel Przybilla one of the most important parts of the Blazers? You are claiming that Przybilla is the dealbreaker in a trade that involves 2 All-Pro level players in the league? He is about as average a player you will find in the NBA, and they have Greg Oden on their roster. Thus, I do not think Przybilla is in their future plans. 

Third, do not sell Rubio's value short. Remember, he was supposed to be a top 3 pick and a lot of teams really like him. Your assessment of him does not affect his trade value around the league and he is lot more valuable than Joel Przybilla.

As far as the hypothetical trade, I still do not like it as a Timberwolves fan. I have watched a lot of this young team for whatever reason (I wasn't watching hoping for a win), and I have to say, I am really impressed with Al Jefferson. Yes, he has a few flaws. He needs to get better on defense, and become more of a leader. However, I think he is really underappreciated around the league and the rest of the country. So much that he could get confused with Richard Jefferson.



Since: Aug 3, 2007
Posted on: July 22, 2009 12:22 pm
 

Hypothetical Trade...

BTW, the other part of any such deal would be contingent upon the ability of the other team to sign Roy. If Portland can't, what makes you think Minnesota can? More likely, such a deal would have to involve a legitimate championship team, probably in a larger market.

Also, for the record, I resent you calling me an idiot. I referred to your trade suggestion as such, not you. Many people write and say idiotic things from time to time -- I know I do.



Since: Aug 3, 2007
Posted on: July 22, 2009 11:58 am
 

Hypothetical Trade...

I did read the entire post. The idiotic portion is not the hypothetical notion that the Blazers and Roy cannot reach a deal, thus forcing the Blazers to make some sort of move. (Though I think that is EXTREMELY unlikely.) The portion that makes no sense is that they would include Przybilla in a trade like that. If you have to move Roy, you aren't giving up another current starter for what little is being offered back -- again, Jefferson -- assuming he's healthy -- and a guy who hasn't played a minute in the NBA. I didn't mention anybody else in the deal because you didn't. You referred to expiring contracts, draft picks, and players "thrown in as sweeteners." There's nothing there that would make this deal palatable -- even in the case of stalled negotiations.

Now, had you stated just Roy for Jefferson and Rubio, plus the various "sweeteners" that both sides might have to use to make the trade work within NBA guidelines, that would be a possibility. But absolutely no way do the Blazers give up 2 of their most important players for Richard Jefferson and Ricky Rubio. Just not happening, no matter what the status of the Roy negotiations are.

I stand by my original assessment of the deal.



Since: Jan 6, 2007
Posted on: July 22, 2009 11:54 am
 

Hypothetical Trade...

Oh wait didn't we already have Roy? 



Since: Mar 18, 2009
Posted on: July 22, 2009 5:43 am
 

Hypothetical Trade...

I think this a good trade for both teams,this coincide that this is only "hypothethical".I think you had given much thought on this that i commend you, really if ever Brandon Roy do not sign and is to be traded to the Timberwolves.And all are aware how the owner and GM of the Blazers like international players like Rudy Fernandez, surely they would definitely like Ricky Rubio also.And their owner has a lot of money to spend and can easily buy out Rubio's contract from DKV.
 I think Al Jefferson is a franchise player when healthy and getting Brandon Roy will push Kevin Love to fill the spot of Al Jefferson and i think Kevin Love has stepped up when Al Jefferson went down.Again this is hypothethical especially now that Minnesota has recently traded three of their players for Q Rich.And i think Kahn still wants Rubio to play as soon as possible that he even traded Sebastian Telfair to make room for him.Again if ever this could have been a good trade for both teams.It will be a different Timberwolves if they do get Brandon Roy.



Since: Apr 10, 2008
Posted on: July 21, 2009 3:46 pm
 

Hypothetical Trade...

No Hercher, you're an idiot because you either can't read or won't read. My whole post is predicated on Roy and the Blazers coming to a contract stand off. Not a straight up deal, mind you, but rather a scenario in which action by the Blazer is essentially necessary.




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