Blog Entry

Here Is Another Trade Scenario

Posted on: January 26, 2010 2:39 pm
 

If you follow NBA trade rumors at all, you are well aware of the published reports, both out of Arizona and nationally, that the Suns are likely to deal Amare Stoudamire before the trade deadline, which is nearly three weeks away. Why? There’s a few reasons but the main one is because he wants a max contract and with the sun beginning to set on the Suns Steve Nash induced run, Phoenix doesn’t want to lock him up much beyond when they expect Nash to retire, which is in two years. From reading around it appears that much of the fanbase won’t exactly be sad to see him go either.

So here is the deal. Try to read the whole thing before criticizing it. Also, approach it with the current state of the NBA in mind. A lot of people react to these trade scenarios like it’s a video game or fantasy league and anything short of LeBron for Kobe and a 2nd Round Pick is unfair. Admittedly, this is just for fun and entirely hypothetical, but getting inside a team’s true motive and circumstance, in my opinion, is what makes it worth reading.

Oklahoma City Thunder
Gives: Jeff Green, James Harden, 1st Round Pick (Lottery Protected)
Gets: Amare Stoudemire, Ryan Gomes

Minnesota Timberwolves
Gives: Ricky Rubio, Ryan Gomes, Corey Brewer, Damien Wilkins, Mark Blount
Gets: Jeff Green, James Harden

Phoenix Suns
Gives: Amare Stoudemire
Gets: Ricky Rubio, Corey Brewer, Damien Wilkins, Mark Blount, OKC 1st Pick (Lottery Protected)



OKC Rationale:
The Thunder do this because (1) Sam Presti loves to trade and (2) their glaring weakness is a quality big man. A three-headed monster of Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant and Amare Stoudemire would be truly electric. There’s also little downside on their end. Upgrading Jeff Green to Stoudemire is an absolute no brainer. Sure, Harden was the #3 pick overall less than a year ago but I still contend that they didn’t really want to make that pick, but rather did so because there just wasn’t anyone better available, in their mind. Westbrook and Harden are redundant and besides, a player like Stoudemire is infinitely more rare than a player like Harden. They also land Gomes, who though admittedly worse, is more or less the same sort of player as Green. They have to throw in the 1st Round Pick but it is Lottery Protected, hence avoiding any serious risk. Finally, some fans may disapprove because they feel this deal leaves the team with little depth, but keep in mind that they’d still have the bulky expiring contracts of Etan Thomas and Matt Harpring on hand to make one more noteworthy move in order to shore things up.

OKC Post-Trade Lineup:
PG - Russell Westbrook
SG - Kevin Durant
SF - Ryan Gomes
PF - Amare Stoudemire
C - Nenad Kristic

Key Reserves: Nick Collison, Thabo Sefolosha, Serge Ibaka
Analysis: A dynamic young team poised to make a playoff run now with assets still available to improve the team.


Minnesota Rationale:
Whether or not you like this trade from a Minnesota perspective probably depends on how you feel about Rubio. David Kahn contends he isn’t on the table. Whether or not that’s true, he’s still potentially their biggest trade asset. This deal allows the Wolves to add two young pieces to their core in Green and Harden and still have a high lottery pick in the 2010 draft, as well as the cap flexibility to sign a big name free agent. Losing Gomes means nothing because they have an option to void his contract after this year and they’ll probably do so anyways. Blount and Wilkins and their expiring contracts are in the deal for no other reason than to balance the salaries and provide Phoenix with some cap relief. Some Minnesota fans will flinch at giving up Brewer, given how well he has played this season, but ultimately you’ve got to go with the more proven commodity in Jeff Green. In the end, this will all come down to the Rubio question. If Kahn really believes that Rubio will be part of the Wolves future then this deal never gets off the ground. On the other hand, if Kahn believes Rubio will drag his feet in Spain until he gets out of Minnesota then this may be the best deal they can get.

Minnesota Post-Trade Lineup:
PG - Jonny Flynn
SG - James Harden
SF - Jeff Green
PF - Kevin Love
C - Al Jefferson

Key Reserves: Ramon Sessions, Wayne Ellington, Ryan Hollins
Analysis: Good to great young group with plenty of flexibility to get better through the draft and free agency.

 
Phoenix Rationale:
Suns fans are most likely to dislike this trade. That’s because they’ll want a young star in return for Stoudemire, and I don’t blame them for that, but unfortunately it’s just not the reality of the NBA. Realistically, the best they’ll be able to hope for is cap relief, draft picks and some young mid-level prospects. Compounding the already difficult nature of trading a superstar is the fact that Stoudemire is in the final year of his contract, which means if he doesn’t like where he goes he won’t re-sign. He has already said that he will only re-sign with a contender. Sure, the dregs of the league could probably offer up better picks and prospects but he would never agree to sign there meaning no team that didn’t already have a handshake agreement that he’d re-sign would ever deal anything meaningful for him.  So basically, any trade in which Phoenix receives value will have to be in some round about way like this. The one thing that contradicts this theory is a recent interview in which Stoudemire implied he’d be okay with going to the Nets, who are obviously a historically bad team. The Nets aren’t giving up Brook Lopez or Devin Harris until they know if they get John Wall. They sure as hell aren’t giving up the pick that could land them John Wall, which means the best they could offer would be some combination of Chris Douglas-Roberts, Courtney Lee, Terrence Williams and Yi Jianlin. When I think honestly about it, I’d rather have a package that includes a potentially transformational star in Ricky Rubio than a couple of guys who already appeared limited to slightly above mediocre. In fact, ESPN Insider ran a report this week about how the Suns have big time interest in Rubio as the future successor to Steve Nash. Makes sense, if you think about it. The Suns also pick up what will most likely be a mid to late 1st Round Pick and an emerging player in Corey Brewer who would fit their run and gun style well. Lastly, they clear a bunch of cap space that would make them relevant players in free agency sooner rather than later.

Phoenix Post-Trade Lineup:
PG - Steve Nash
SG - Jason Richardson
SF - Grant Hill
PF - Channing Frye
C - Robin Lopez

Key Reserves: Leandro Barbosa, Corey Brewer, Goran Dragic (Suns fans love this dude)
Analysis: Probably won’t improve this year, but this trade isn’t about that. It’s about setting them up to recover in the next two years, which this trade does do.

 
Okay then, rip away.

 

Comments

Since: Apr 25, 2009
Posted on: February 12, 2010 9:46 am
 

Here Is Another Trade Scenario

Minnesota
Gives: , Ryan Gomes, , ,
Gets: Jeff Green, James Harden

Minnesota Rationale:
Whether or not you like this trade from a Minnesota perspective probably depends on how you feel about Rubio. David Kahn contends he isn’t on the table. Whether or not that’s true, he’s still potentially their biggest trade asset. This deal allows the Wolves to add two young pieces to their core in Green and Harden and still have a high lottery pick in the 2010 draft, as well as the cap flexibility to sign a big name free agent. Losing Gomes means nothing because they have an option to void his contract after this year and they’ll probably do so anyways. Blount and Wilkins and their expiring contracts are in the deal for no other reason than to balance the salaries and provide Phoenix with some cap relief. Some Minnesota fans will flinch at giving up Brewer, given how well he has played this season, but ultimately you’ve got to go with the more proven commodity in Jeff Green. In the end, this will all come down to the Rubio question. If Kahn really believes that Rubio will be part of the Wolves future then this deal never gets off the ground. On the other hand, if Kahn believes Rubio will drag his feet in Spain until he gets out of Minnesota then this may be the best deal they can get.

I don't flinch about giving up any of these players, and I wouldn't put it past David Kahn, but I really don't see the reasoning behind moving 5 guys to get 2 unproven players and a draft pick.  The wolves are already filled with D-league Talent, Why would they give up thier expiring deals for players they'll have to pay for 2-3 more years?  I think this trade only works because it helps out the Thunder and the Suns.  Your more of using the wolves as a doormat.  Which isn't surprising because David Kahn has created this atmosphere for the Wolves. 

This is also the biggest problem with the NBA now.  Players beind moved for a luxary tax or because the team thinks they can sign someone for later all the while the fans are getting hosed by horrible basketball and the promise of things to come.  This is precisely why I hope Stern and the Owners take it to the players in the CBA for 2011.  Something has got to be done about the player movement in the NBA, a team like the wolves changes every year because they don't have the financial backing to keep a roster together.  Meanwhile the Cavs, Lakers, Celtics and spurs get to pick the scraps from the lesser teams and field a contender every year. 

I say this trade would be counter productive, even though all the players the wolves would give up are stiffs.  You have to start somewhere right? 




Since: Feb 16, 2009
Posted on: February 1, 2010 9:59 am
 

Here Is Another Trade Scenario

I agree that this is not a great trade for the Wolves.  Yes the Wolves would be getting a few nice starters/role players but they really need someone who is a star (doesn't every team).  Brewer is also playing out of his mind and I would like to see the Wolves hang out to him.



Since: Dec 1, 2008
Posted on: January 28, 2010 6:17 pm
 

Here Is Another Trade Scenario

Well I've got a pretty high opinion of Rubio so i'm not a fan of this trade. Harden's all right but Jeff Green is more of an undersized 4 then a 3. Also I don't want to give up Brewer right now the kid's playing out of his mind right now. Only way I'm trading Rubio is if we get lucky in the lottery and get Mr. Wall.



Since: Apr 10, 2008
Posted on: January 28, 2010 1:46 pm
 

Here Is Another Trade Scenario

I think the Wolves are needed in this deal because of the Rubio factor. Green and Harden are nice players but Rubio has the makings of a star. I'm basing this off of published reports that the Suns see Rubio as the spitting image of Steve Nash.




Since: Aug 20, 2006
Posted on: January 28, 2010 9:10 am
 

Here Is Another Trade Scenario

I like this deal; like another poster I feel like The Team That Shall Not Be Named and Phoenix might just rather trade with each other, rather than involve the Wolves. If something like this would happen there'd have to be a deal to get Rubio over here next season.



Since: Nov 30, 2007
Posted on: January 27, 2010 7:32 pm
 

Here Is Another Trade Scenario

I'm looking at this again and I don't see the Thunder doing this.  This summer, they will be just shy of $40 million under the cap, enough to get one max contract and a ton of role players.  They will sign one of the many big men to a max contract (most likely Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire, although Carlos Boozer, Dirk Nowitzki, and Yao Ming are certainly possibilities), and then use part of the remaining $18 million or so on building what will likely be the best bench in the NBA.  The rest will be left over the raises to Durant, Westbrook, and Co. when their rookie contracts run out.  Oklahoma City is going to be scary good for a long time.  Why would they trade Green and Harden for Amare when they could just sign him this offseason?



Since: Jan 27, 2010
Posted on: January 27, 2010 11:45 am
 

Here Is Another Trade Scenario

We heard this rumor earlier, Jefferson and Ellington to Chicago, for Thomas, Heinrich, and expiring contract for jerome james, and draft pick



Since: May 13, 2009
Posted on: January 27, 2010 3:54 am
 

Here Is Another Trade Scenario

I don't think Jefferson is the "upbeat" up and down the floor player the Suns would be looking for. Great player, but a more traditional post up player imo.



Since: May 18, 2009
Posted on: January 26, 2010 5:28 pm
 

Here Is Another Trade Scenario

I'm confused. This post had nothing to do with a Superbowl party... so is that still going on?



Since: Nov 30, 2007
Posted on: January 26, 2010 4:37 pm
 

Here Is Another Trade Scenario

I think it makes a lot of sense for every team, actually.  I think Thabo would start over Gomes for OKC, but that's really just splitting hairs.  I also think that more picks might need to be exchanged, specifically to OKC.  The Suns would have to really love Ricky Rubio to take what amounts to him and cap space over a combo of Jeff Green and James Harden though.  I think the Suns would be better to trade straight up with OKC, as I think it would be enough to put them into legit contender mode for the next few years before Nash retires.  The Timberwolves would have to give up more to the Suns in order for this trade to happen.  Why not Al Jefferson instead of Rubio and the contracts?  The Suns get a similar player (who becomes instantly better with a PG like Nash) at a favorable salary.  The Wolves keep the flexibility of Rubio and keep the center spot open for that European kid who's supposed to be a stud when he comes over next year, and free up the post to allow Love to grow.  And they get their much needed wing players, along with expiring contracts.


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com