Blog Entry

Past Experiences...

Posted on: May 27, 2009 12:41 pm
 
While taking a look into the mock drafts by the CBSSports writers I noticed how differently the draft will be from last year.  Last year we were all under the belief that the fantasy tide was changing with the dual running back system becoming the norm and the Quarterback position more important than ever.  While the dual running back system has become the norm it hasn't greatly hindered the performances of the best backs while we've learned that Quarterbacks might not be the wisest choice to anchor your fantasy team to.  With that said lets look at the mock draft from June 1st 2008 and compare that to the mock draft from April 30th, 2009:

CBSSports.com June 1, 2008 mock draft
1st Round:      Team:                 Player:

1.                         Jamey Eisenberg      LaDainian Tomlinson
CBSSports.com April 30th, 2009 mock draft
1st Round:      Team:                 Player:

1.                         Jamey Eisenberg      Adrian Peterson

I guess since Jamey sets up the Mock Drafts he gets the honorary 1st pick. This pick is usually decided well before the draft and is typically the can't miss.  At least that's what we thought until last year.  LT had a down season for LT standards as he played hurt and didn't show the burst that made him the best back in the league.  He seems to be on the downside of his career and is now considered a late 1st round pick at best, but could also very well return to form and be a great value pick late in the 1st.  What is clear now is that there is no for sure "can't miss." AP is widely considered the number one pick but his upright running style and his injury history concerns me.  While if I was able to get the first pick I would without a doubt select Purple Jesus but I would make sure that I got Chester Taylor as his handcuff.  While I am not the biggest fan of "handcuffing" your stud player I think this is one of those instances where you would because Chester Taylor has proven to be more than serviceable in spelling AP and when Peterson is hurt.

CBSSports.com June 1, 2008 mock draft
1st Round:      Team:                 Player:

2.                         David Gonos               Adrian Peterson
CBSSports.com April 30th, 2009 mock draft
1st Round:      Team:                 Player:

2.                         Ross Davenport        Michael Turner

Here's where it gets tricky, after AP I'm not sure who should definitely come off the board next.  This quandary will surely remain barring injuries until right before your draft. Who should it be? Everyone has their own opinions, I personally think Michael Turner is the right choice after last season's performance and with no one to really take many carries from him.  If someone were to pick MJD, Forte or DeAngelo Williams in this position I wouldn't stare at them with disbelief.  What we do know is that a running back should be taken with no exceptions.

CBSSports.com June 1, 2008 mock draft
1st Round:      Team:                 Player:

3.                         Corey Guerrera          Stephen Jackson
CBSSports.com April 30th, 2009 mock draft
1st Round:      Team:                 Player:

3.                         Eric Kay                       Matt Forte

This pick by Corey was before the whole contract holdout and eventual new contract and then becoming a bust.  The hype during the time was that he will be playing for a new contract and he will be hungry.  Now that he is full from steak and lobster from his fat contract will he come back and be the player he once was?  I do not foresee picking up Stephen Jackson in any of my drafts unless he falls into my lap way past his projected draft locale.  I will not waste a high second round pick on a player who has no offense around him to support him.  Draft at your own peril.  Matt Forte, the golden child from the city of wind. You know once Forte and Cutler get together on the field they will not only win Super Bowl after Super Bowl, they will find a cure for cancer, help Obama put an end to the recession and even help me sell my condo without taking a loss from the bubble bursting.  That being said the Bears relied greatly on this rookie back and I don't see them doing this again.  We will see more of Kevin Jones spelling him and more throws down the field instead of the usual dump and dive that Bears fans have been used to.  With Jay Cutler at the helm Forte's attempts will go down but he will also see more holes with the opponents CB's having to play back to guard against the pass.  I can see Forte being a very solid pick but am unsure whether he will go this high when the season finally rolls around.

CBSSports.com June 1, 2008 mock draft
1st Round:      Team:                 Player:

4.                         Aaron Weisberg                   Tom Brady
CBSSports.com April 30th, 2009 mock draft
1st Round:      Team:                 Player:

4.                         Eric Kay                                Maurice Jones-Drew

Oh to get a do-over in fantasy drafts,  how were we supposed to know Tom Brady would go down for the whole season in the very first game.  He was a definite 1st round pick in all my drafts after his amazing 07-08 season.  He flipped many people's beliefs on how to draft and it all came crashing down as he limped off the field.  Now it seems all the analysts think he will just return to his old form.  Sure he won't be a first round pick anymore but he still will be drafted among the top 5 quarterbacks without a doubt.  Why are we so sure that he can return to form? I want to know the reason because I'm not so sure.  Quarterback is so deep this year that unless someone falls I will have no problem drafting the Matt Ryan's, Kyle Orton's and Jay Cutler's of the world.  That being said, MJD is a stud! I think he will definitely be one of the top backs this year.  The major question about him is whether he will be able to carry the whole load now that Fred Taylor is gone, in actuality Fred Taylor was gone all last year.  Taylor's play and role was diminished greatly throughout last year which makes me believe MJD will be one of the top backs in the league.  

CBSSports.com June 1, 2008 mock draft
1st Round:      Team:                 Player:

5.                         Jeff Lippman                       Frank Gore
CBSSports.com April 30th, 2009 mock draft
1st Round:      Team:                 Player:

5.                         Michael Hurcomb               Frank Gore

Here it is, the first match! While I don't believe it is the correct pick, I would rather have DeAngelo Williams even with his time share, I can't argue against it too much.  San Francisco last year had Mike Martz and was supposed to have their offense revitalized under him.  This did not work out while Frank Gore still had a decent season.  Gore has proven he can shoulder much of the load and now that the pants dropper Mike Singletary is at the helm he will have to shoulder even more of it.  Singletary has said that he will commit more to the run this year and I will not be the one to call him a liar.  Gore should have a good season but much of the rest of the offense around him is in disarray.  Much like St. Louis and Stephen Jackson I would call him a risky pick.

More pick analysis to come with time as the season is still so unfortunately far away...

Comments
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com