Blog Entry

Pro Bowl Participation Probability Test

Posted on: January 28, 2010 8:06 pm
In order to not be disappointed when my favorite player drops out of the Pro Bowl I have devised a checklist to determine the likelyhood that the player chosen will actually appear in the pro bowl he has been selected to.

Take the original list.  Now scan over the names one by one.

Has the player recently played in a tough playoff game?  Cross him off the list.

Will the player be playing in the Super Bowl?  Cross him off the list.

Has the player been injured at any point in the season, even if it is a relatively minor injury?  Cross him off the list.

Has the player played in more than two previous Pro Bowls?  Cross him off the list.

Does the player have a possible family commitment that would give him a reasonable excuse to miss the game?  Cross him off the list.

Is the player a ten year veteran?  Cross him off the list.

If a player who is on the pro bowl roster matches any one of these criteria there is a 75% chance he won't play.  If he meets at least two of these criteria there is a 99.9% chance he won't play.

If a player has pending legal trouble or a family that he wants an excuse to get away from the odds of him playing are slightly better.  If he meets two of the above criteria he has a 50% chance of not playing.  It would take three of the criteria to make him 99.9% sure of not playing.

Follow these guidelines and you will be sure not to be upset when the actual game is played.

If you still watch it.
Category: NFL
Tags: NFL, Pro Bowl
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