Blog Entry

Week 8 Picks

Posted on: October 29, 2009 12:04 pm

I was 6-7 last week, which brings me to 55-47, still above average.  Apparently last week was the worst weekend for Vegas in history, largely because of all the ridiculously good and bad teams in the NFL this year.  And of course, this week has it's fair share of huge lines.  Let's see if I can keep this ship above water:

Denver (+4) over Baltimore.  These guys still don't get any credit, and the Ravens defense isn't really all that good.  Plus, they get so many stupid penalties.  Kyle Orton has been ridiculously efficient, and the Broncos defense is allowing only 11 points a game.

Houston (-3.5) over Buffalo.  I don't really understand why the Texans dynamic offense is only favored by 3.5.  Yeah, their defense is pretty bad, but look at the Bills offense!  This might be different if Andre Johnson doesn't play, but still!

Cleveland (+13.5) over Chicago.  Here's our first huge line.  The only reason I like the Browns to keep it close here is that the Bears defense isn't very good.  You would think one of the Browns QBs would step up at some point, and why not against a non-conference team?

Seattle (+9) over Dallas.  What scares me most about this pick is DeMarcus Ware against the Seahawks terrible offensive line.  Regardless, I'm still not buying Dallas as an above average team, even if they win this game.  Why?  Wade Phillips.

New York Jets (-3.5) over Miami.  I love the wildcat, but I think now that Rex Ryan has had more experience playing against it, he'll have a better chance of defeating it.  This all banks on how well Sanchez can air out the ball, and use Braylon Edwards effectively.  They've had some very bad injuries lately, though.

San Francisco (+11) over Indianapolis.  I'm jumping all over the Alex Smith bandwagon here, and I think that the 49ers might actually keep it close in this game.  The Colts haven't even been challeneged by the garbage they've been playing, and I think a close game is inevitable.

New York Giants (+1) over Philadelphia.  Regardless of whether Westbrooks plays or not, I see this coming down to a last minute field goal to win it (as does Vegas probably).  With such a close line, I'll pick my Giants.

Detroit (-3.5) over St. Louis.  I think Steven Jackson finally has a breakout game here, but the Lions could easily put up 35 points on the Rams horrible defense.  If Stafford plays, I don't think the Rams can keep it close.

Oakland (+16.5) over San Diego.  This is, once again, a ridiculous pick, but there are a few reasons why I like the Raiders to keep it close.  First, their run defense is pretty good, and LT and Sproles haven't done anything.  Second, the Raiders made it a game against the Chargers early in the season.

Jacksonville (+3) over Tennessee.  I didn't think it was possible, but I could see the Titans going 0-7 here.  Their defense is terrible, and they might be starting Vince Young.  Garrard might be able to put up big numbers, especially with MJD backing him up.

Minnesota (+3) over Green Bay.  I don't care that they're playing at Lambeau, the Vikings are just a better team.  They all but won that game against the Steelers, who are a very tough team.  All around, the Vikings should outplay the Packers.

Carolina (+10) over Arizona.  A lot of people are drinking the Cardinal juice right now, but I think the Panthers will bounce back against them.  John Fox knows that he needs to run the ball more, which will hopefully keep the ball away from the Cards offense.

Atlanta (+10) over New Orleans.  I've grabbed the points in almost every game this week, so why not finish it off?  Night game, within the division?  I say the Saints win a close one.  Have a nice weekend.

Category: NFL
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