Blog Entry

NFL Week 5 Picks

Posted on: October 10, 2009 10:31 am
Edited on: October 10, 2009 10:42 am
 

I appreciate all of the views and off line comments and hope you continue to read my blog.  I also know that I better start producing or I’m going to start losing some of my credibility.   After a monster start to the season, I took a couple of gambles and it didn’t pay off to say the least.  Last week breaking even.  With a fresh start and what seems to be a pretty weak week in the NFL I’m here to turn it around.  Here are my picks for the week.

Vikings vs. Rams – No brainer here.  Case of Vikes being a top NFC juggernaut and the Rams are well…the Rams.  Favre and Peterson will take it to them.  The Viking’s pass rush is too much for a sputtering Rams offense that features one guy in Steven Jackson .  The Rams got crushed 35-0 by the 49ers and I don’t see a better scenario here for them.  I take the Vikes straight up and give the 9.5.

Cowboys vs. Chiefs – Romo has one touchdown in his last 3 games and has looked dreadful.  Roy Williams is hurting after taking a huge shot to the ribs last week and may be up in the air this week.  Barber appears to be back and the Cowboys will have a chance to get the offense going this week against the Chiefs.  While the Chiefs got whacked last week against the Giants they seemed to have a little moxy at the end of the game and played better on the offensive side of the ball.  While I think the Cowboys should win this one I think the Chiefs will cover the 8.5.

Panthers vs. Redskins – You may want to do something other than wasting 3-4 hours of your life to watch this game.  You will never get that time back and I’m sure you can find something more productive to do.  With that said, who thinks that the Panthers are going 0-4?  I don’t and I think this is a team that needed this early bye week to get focused.  Jake Delhomme has been terrible, but I think he turns it around a bit this week and the Panthers still have great weapons in Williams and Steve Smith ….who is becoming the other Steve Smith with his play.  Not his fault I might add as he is constantly being doubled team.  The Redskins on the other hand barely beat an awful Tampa Bay team and lost to Detroit the week prior.  I take the Panthers straight up and give the 3.5.

Eagles vs. Tampa Bay – Eagles are coming off a bye week, playing at home, McNabb and Westbrook have returned, and everything has lined up this week for these guys to crush Tampa.  I could be wrong and this could blow up in my face, but I go with the much better team and hope they cover the large point spread.  I’d rather be on that side than rooting for Tampa to just hang in there.  I look at this much like the Giants game that crushed them a few weeks ago and less than the Redskins game which was a close one.  Look for the Eagles defense who likes the blitz to come often and hard at Johnson getting start number 2 in his career.  I give the 15 points.

Giants vs. Oakland – I have changed my opinion and now have selected Oakland as the worst team and no longer the Browns .  With a God awful QB in J. Russell, their head coach under the microscope for knocking people out, their top runner in McFadden who only has 146 yards rushing the whole season anyways.  All in all, not adding up to a good week for the Raiders .  Eli practiced today and the Giants should continue to roll.  Russell will be running for his life and Michael Bush will have no where to run.  Just like the Eagle game…I will go with the superior team and pull for them to cover the 16.

Bills vs. Browns – Cleveland showed some signs of life in the second half last week and though Manginius is clearly not for one reason or another this offense is better with D. Anderson.  This game falls under my “find something else to do for 3-4 hours”.  Life is short.  I have taken the Bills after their tough loss at New England keeping some belief that they are better than they really are, but the truth is their QB stinks and can’t find T.O. or Evans who have to just be sick with this guy trying to get them the ball.  The Bills got crushed by a team with a starting QB named Henne, who was starting for the first time.  I hate this game, but will take the Browns and the 6 points.

Ravens vs. Bengals – I’ve been riding that Bengal train all season and will not be getting off now.  I think the point spread in this game is beautiful and I take the Bengals getting 8.5 points.  The Bengals are not a fluke and have played everyone tough…especially against a divisional rival.  I think the Ravens take the win in a squeaker, but this will not be a blow out.  I think the Ravens are the better all around team giving them the win, but Cincy is no push over this year and will match up well.

Steelers vs. Lions – I had such high hopes for the Lions after they came out against the Redskins and played well in the first half against the Bears , but reality set into place and worse the sunny Detroit skies were quickly once again covered with good old Ford gas guzzling smog when Stafford got hurt.  Culpepper starting this week against a Steeler team bringing Polamalu back.  The D is completely different with that guy and Detroit will have no where to go.  This falls again into that Giant and Eagle game category with, pick the best team and look for them to cover the 10.5.

49er’s vs. Falcons – Yes the 49ers’s are for real, yes they are tough, yes they have some talent, and yes their coach is quickly becoming my hero, but with that said…I’m taking Atlanta.  The 49ers are missing Gore this week, they came off a great win at the Rams, but Atlanta has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game.  They are more talented and have great motivation to try and keep up with the Saints .  Not to mention that loss to the Patriots doesn’t seem so bad, considering the Pats look like studs again.  I am not only taking Atlanta to win, I’m taking the 2.5 points that comes with it.

Patriots vs. Broncos – Denver has one of the best defenses in football, they took it to Dallas as I predicted and Orton has looked much better than I have suggested he is.  I hate picking this game this week because everything says Denver, but I am going with the Patriots.  Denver hasn’t beaten anyone and as we have learned the Cowboys just stink so I don’t take too much from that.  What I do take away is that they were physical and beat the crap out of the Dallas receivers.  With that said Welker is back for the Patriots and Tom Brady is ….Tom Brady.  I think playing in Denver is a huge plus for the Broncos but ultimately the master beats his pupil and the Patriots limp out with a win, but I take Denver getting 3.5 points in a nail biter. 

Cardinals vs. Texans – This a tricky one as the Arizona defense has stunk it up all season and the team in general has been up and down.  One week they look like world beaters the next they look like Arizona of old.  The Texans themselves are a very up and down team.  They seem to have the offense to match up against anyone with Andre Johnson , Steve Slaton , Owen Daniels , and Matt Schaub , but their defense stinks and is capable of only stopping the Raiders.  So this becomes a battle of the better offenses and I take the Cardinals with their talented laden roster coming off a bye week and are 1-2 for the season.  Clearly they have a bigger motivation, more prep time, and for what’s it worth a slightly better offense.  I take Arizona and give the 5.5.  The points are a little high for me, but I think they will cover.

Seahawks vs. Jaguars – This is a pick’em.  I’m picking the Jags as they are much better than I have given them credit for in the beginning of the year. Jones-Drew is a stud and Sims-Walker is becoming a legit #1 receiver.  David Garrard has played very well and the Seahawks are still battling some injuries.  The Jags appear to be the healthier and better team right now.  Even with Hasselbeck coming back I take the Jags.

Colts vs. Titans – I must be missing something…the Colts have been stumping the life out of people and the Titans have been the antidote to every struggling team, so why is the line 3.5?  I have suffered time after time all season picking the Titans who I refuse to believe are that bad because of my respect for Fisher, but they stink and they might even get Vince Young to play this week.  The Colts on the other hand have Bob “the little beast” Sanders coming back.  It might be a sucker pick and Vegas always knows more than you or I, but I’m taking the Colts and giving the 3.5.

Jets vs. Dolphins – Okay, I clearly underestimated Henne last week when I took the Bills to beat them.  I thought there was no way they could beat the Bills with no QB production.  What I will say is that…I still have no faith in Henne and think that was more of an indictment on the Bills inability to stop anyone than it is the Miami offense.  Rex Ryan defense will crush these guys.  Henne in his second start is going to get it all and will look more like the rookie than Sanchez.  Not to say that Sanchez will have it all that easy this week with a tough Miami defensive squad, but he should fair better against them than Henne will against the Jets rush.  I take the Jets straight up and give the 1.5 points.

I appreciate all your thoughts and welcome your opinions.  Good luck with your picks this week.

- M





Category: NFL
Comments

Since: Aug 20, 2009
Posted on: October 14, 2009 8:13 am
 

NFL Week 5 Picks

I give you credit on your picks even though i didnt pay attention to much on what you said about reason, everyone else is sad becasue you complained about their team bu they are so much of a fan they cant except the fact that their team sucks. i for myself favor the titans and i can exceptg the fact that they need to get it under control. they need to do something!



Since: Feb 20, 2009
Posted on: October 11, 2009 12:49 pm
 

NFL Week 5 Picks

Are you truly trying to squabble as to who is the worst team?  Really?  Fine.  The Raiders have beaten the Chiefs this season.  Does that mean they are not the worst team?  By definition you could say the Chiefs are then the worst team.  Teams are constantly evolving however.  Victories alone cannot justify a teams quality.  Yes it is important ultimately, but a victory over an injury plagued team versus the same team while healthy are two things entirely.  Are they not?

As you indicated I too like numbers, so I could just say I think the Raiders are the worst team because:

  1. QB is ranked 34th in the league (meaning two backups are rated higher) with a passer rating of 18.79 and a completion rate of 39.8.

  2. Leading rusher for your team (Darren McFadden) is ranked 47th in the league averaging 36.2 yards per game with 4 fumble and just 1 touchdown.  He has 147 yard on the WHOLE SEASON. Oh, he is out hurt by the way.

  3. Leading WR for your team (Louis Murphy) is ranked 39th in the league and has just 11 receptions with 1 touchdown

  4. The Raiders are rated LAST IN TOTAL OFFENSE and last in almost every statistical value.

With all those numbers I'm sure I could make a compelling case as to why the Raiders are the worst team.  Are you saying all of these numbers should be ignored and we should merely go by wins and losses?  I think these numbers make a compelling case but, I could merely just look at the fact that team has no direction, has lost its best offensive play maker, and last but not least the head coach Tom Cable could be ARRESTED any day for hitting one of his assistant coaches.  Are you kidding me?  Last week I considered the Brown to be the worst team as there appears to be a mutiny in the making, but while Mangini and Browns are dreadful, they may ultimately edge out the disfunctional Raiders.  Either way it is not a topic that I feel is worth squabbling about.  Why not discuss the upcoming game and your predictions.  And while I do appreciate the feedback, the shot about the Prisco thing is not necessary.

- M






Since: May 17, 2007
Posted on: October 11, 2009 1:52 am
 

NFL Week 5 Picks

how do you rate the Raiders as the worst team, when they have a win? There are still teams with no wins. For someone who loves to throw numbers around, you forgot the one stat that means the most, WINS.

Is this Pete Prisco again?


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