Blog Entry

NFL Week 7 Picks

Posted on: October 22, 2009 5:24 pm
Edited on: October 23, 2009 5:11 pm
 
After coming off what can only be described as my toughest week yet, I thank all of you who continue to support this blog and hope to bounce back this week after dropping to third in my league.  Like I stated before, the room for error in picking against the spread is small and teams like the Eagles, Jet, Steelers, and Jags certainly did not help.  Not to mention the Vikings falling apart and giving up 21 points in the 4th quarter felt like a stab to the heart.  With that said, a new week, and a fresh start.  This may be the best week in football yet as the matchups look like great games.  Tough to pick, but great to watch.  I've got some fliers and a couple of what appear to be no brainers, only time will tell.  Thanks for all the comments and support, and as always, best of luck this week.
Update: A couple of picks have changed this week, given some last minute news, particuliarly in the Browns & Packers, and Giants & Cardinals games.   Enjoy!
-M

Chargers vs. Chiefs
San Diego breaking my heart this past week versus Denver.  A perfect trap was scenario for them with a trap game for the Broncos and they choked at home after coming off a bye week.  They have given up 72 points in their last two games and look like the second worst team in the division.  The good news for them is that the worst team in the division is next up.  Back to the bad news, the Chiefs have looked very good in the past few weeks and have won and covered as I have suspected they would with Matt Cassel playing lights out.  The Chiefs even got their first win, albeit versus the horrid Redskins.  I am running out of patience with the Chargers but have to believe they will rebound this week and will win the game.  Covering is another thing.  They beat the Chief last year by one point both times, and this year’s Chief team is better.  While the Chiefs record is poor, they have actually played pretty good and have kept most games close.  I take the 4.5 points
 
Colts vs. Rams
The Rams gave Jacksonville all they could handle this past week and with a line of +9 going and the Jags potent offense I expected a blowout.  I think it has more to do with the Jags playing like an inconsistent team than the Rams actually improving.  Avery is a hell of a receiver for the team and Steven Jackson may be the second best running back to Adrian Peterson, but we may never know as he has no line to help him.  Mark Bulger returned last week to help the offense out.  No sense in talking about the Colts, we all know what they are capable of and that my friends is scoring.  I have a feeling that Peyton will score at will here and will be surprised if they don’t cover the 13.

Bengals vs. Bears
This is going to be a very tough game.  Both teams coming off a loss with the Bengals falling into that trap game versus Houston, and the Bears losing to Atlanta on Sunday night.  The Bengals lost to a potent Houston team and their secondary was embarrassed allowing Matt Schaub to move the ball freely and toss 4 TD’s last week.  Jay Cutler may be better than Schaub, but he certainly doesn’t have the weapons to duplicate that performance.  The Bengals are playing at home and Cedric Benson is going to be motivated to exact some revenge on his former team who he claims tried to “black ball” him.  I quite frankly expected more out of the Bears after having two weeks to prepare for Atlanta.  Now traveling with short rest to play a very motivated Bengals team, I don’t like the match up for them.  Everyone is jumping on the Bears this week, I’m going the other way.  I like Cincy this week and I will give the low number of 1.5.

Packers vs. Browns
I don’t think that the Browns have necessarily improved, I just think that the Steelers defense isn’t what it was last year and people have been able to move the ball.  On the flip side, the Packers beat up on the Lions who were playing well going into the game, but were outmanned with Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford out.  Tough to gauge what you have with the Packers.  You know what you have with the Browns however, and that is one of the most dysfunctional teams in the NFL and now they all appear to be suffering from the flu.  Green Bay has had trouble covering all season and they have stuck it to me all year.  With that said, I’m going to take the lowly Browns who are playing at home to keep it closer than the 7 points.  I know it sounds nuts right now, but everyone is taking the Packers and sometimes you have to take a flier and go the opposite way.  Besides, the Browns play tough at home and at least they will be rested from a week of sitting around from H1N1.  I change my pick to Green Bay as the Browns being out all week will affect their ability to be properly prepared, not to mention a recent car accident to a defensive back has their secondary up in the air.

Steelers vs. Vikings
The Steelers have had trouble stopping opposing offenses all season.  They have also had a tough time covering the spread.  This week they give up 4 points to the Vikings who have done just about everything right this year (Except fall apart in the 4th quarter and kill those who picked them to cover last week….not that I’m bitter or anything).  Because this seems to be the matchup of the week, let’s take a look at this from a logical perspective.  The Steelers offense is potent with Hines Ward, Rashard Mendenhall, Santonio Holmes, and of course Big Ben.  The problem with the offense is that they haven’t played anyone.  They have beaten up on Cleveland, Detroit, San Diego (only 2 wins…believe it), and Tennessee.  They have lost to quality teams in Chicago and Cincy.  Passing on Minnesota is not the same as Cleveland and Ben won’t throw for 450 yards. Plus he gets sacked a ton and who has one of the sack happy defenses in the league…that’s right, the Vikings!  On the other side, the 4th quarter defensive meltdown, while agitating to me because it cost me, I believe is an aborition and I think they will be motivated to beat the defending champs.  The Steelers are missing Aaron Smith on the D-line to slow one of the best rushing teams in the league with “All Day” Adrian Peterson in the backfield.  Kirschke, and Polamalu are both hurting and have not practiced this week.  Everyone is taking the Steelers and talking about how the Vikings haven’t played anyone.  When the sheep go in one direction I go the other.  I am going to take the Vikings the 4 points and hope Jared Allen has a big day.

Patriots vs. Buccaneers
The Pats crushed the Titans as I thought they would, in fact they beat them so bad had Jeff Fisher wearing a Peyton Manning jersey this past week just to feel like a winner.  The Bucs played well last week and I have been saying that kid Johnson is a player.  They came up short and didn’t cover, but it was still a worthy flier.  This week they have the Patriots coming to town …oh wait, they are coming to Town in another country!  Poor guys will be flying over the Atlantic Ocean for a butt kicking.  We could get into analysis, doesn’t this seem relatively easy?  It’s Tom Freaking Brady with an offense running on all cylinders against a horrid defense.  The Brits will be saying “Beckham who?” after watching Brady.  I know 14.5 is a ton of points to give and I wouldn’t recommend it, but Bill Belichick runs up the score and doesn’t mercifully end any beating, so I expect them to cover. 

Texans vs. 49er’s
The 49ers’s should having come off they bye week should be refreshed and prepared to take on the Texans.  Not to mention they get Frank Gore back and now it appears Crabtree will get the start at WR.  I’m not sure of the impact he will have as a rookie in his first game.  With all of those positives for the 49er’s it might surprise you to know that I’m favoring the Texans this week.  They seem to have ignited on offense since that second half versus the Cardinals and the defense surprisingly has cut in half what they were giving up in their first 3 games.  They beat a very good Bengals team last week that had a good rusher and pass attack themselves with Carson Palmer and Cedric Benson.  With a defense playing better and what appears to be a high powered offense with Andre Johnson just a man among boys, I think the Texans, playing at home can take on San Francisco and their pedestrian passing attack.  I give the 3 points.

Jets vs. Raiders
People are going to think I’m a Raider hater.  The truth is I consider them one of the NFL’s most traditional franchises and I’m saddened by their demise.  With that said, this sorry sack of a team beat the power house Eagles.  What???  Okay I didn’t get that win last week, but obviously with those types of losses what do you expect?  It was a tough week for me.  The Eagles played like choking dogs.  The Jets on the other side played like choking dogs themselves and loss to the Bills.  I really want to take the Raiders here who have played with pride except that game against the Giants, but I still hate JaMarcus Russell although he played much better last week.  So, what to do?  Pick the team with promise that has underachieved in recent weeks or the poor team that has overachieved recently?  The passing game for both teams is terrible and Sanchez and Russell rank amongst the lowest QB’s in the league.  And while the Raiders are on an upswing after taking it to the Eagles they have lost by more than 20 points three times this year.  The Jets have some real motivation here after looking bad. With Kris Jenkins out for the Jets they should still win this game.  This may be a defensive struggle as both teams have good ones.  Not to mention the Jets historically have had trouble playing the Raiders.  At the end of the day I think the Raiders are capable of keeping it close and covering 6.5. 

Bills vs. Panthers
Trent Edwards is out for the Bills and quite frankly I don’t know if this is a bad thing for them as he has been terrible.  The team got a big win versus the Jets last week.  This surprised me quite a bit considering they are really banged up on defense.  I think it has more to do with those pesky divisional rivalry games than anything.  Two lousy teams but Carolina is playing at home with a better and healthier defensive and offensive squad.  The kicker here is that they are only giving up 1 point.  I hate to say ‘no-brainer’ here because I always seem to lose those games, but I will go with the Panthers as I think the Bills will be flat after that big win last week.

Saints vs. Dolphins
Wow, was I wrong about last week’s game.  The Saints absolutely crushed my beloved Giants and showed they are to be reckoned with.  They are outstanding and impressive to watch.  I suspected the Giants would have trouble defending the pass, but goodness that was embarrassing.  On the flip side, I have been banging on Henne all season, but after watching his start against the Jets I am a reformist.  That kid throws a great ball and has a hell of an arm.  I take back all my little snide comments about him.  I think this is a trap game for the Saints.  It’s going to be hot, on turf, coming off an emotional win, playing against a motivated Miami team off a bye week.  The world is going to take the Saints this week after what they did to the G-men, but I think Miami may be a tougher matchup.  They are solid rushing and it won’t be a track field for the Saint receivers.  I can’t say the “wildcat” is hookie as few teams have been able to stop it.  Miami is extremely efficient and effective on offense and should control the ball and the clock.  They may lose to the Saints ultimately, but it will be more like when they lost to the Colts after holding the ball for 45 minutes.  There is a reason why this line is so low considering how well the Saints have been playing.  With everyone going in one direction I am taking my next biggest flier and going with Miami to cover the 6.5

Cowboys vs. Falcons
The Falcons have looked impressive this season and haven’t given up a sack in a 3-4 games.  Roddy White is a stud and has come up big in the last few games with Matt Ryan playing like an old veteran.  The Cowboys on the other hand have only beaten crummy teams this season and barely got a win versus the Chiefs before their bye week.  With that said, the Cowboys are coming off a bye week, the pass rush has improved, they have an upcoming star in Miles Austin, their rushing is solid, and they are playing for way more than the Falcons this week.  They really need this win to keep pace with the rest of the NFC east.  The Falcons are hurting in the secondary and they didn’t look too hot in that Chicago game.  In fact I picked the Bears to win last week and almost got away with it.  This week, if you couldn’t already tell, I’m taking the Cowboys who are playing at home and are highly motivated for this game.  I give the 4 points.

Giants vs. Cardinals
What’s your reward NY for not being able to stop the pass and giving up close to 500 in offense to New Orleans last week?  The pass happy Cardinals with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and ex-Giant castaway Kurt Warner.  Remember he played for them?  How time flies.  It could be the fact that my judgment is clouded by my loyalty to the Giants, but I think the defense will be inspired to perform better.  A tough draw for the Jints with Arizona playing well against the rush.  My concern with Arizona has been their inconsistency.  I’m not sure who is coming to play.  At the very least you know what you’re getting with the Giants.  Is Arizona capable of beating them? Yes and by a wide margin if the Giants can’t stop the pass.  I hate this game and would steer clear if I were a betting man.  But technically because I am a betting man, I think the Giants will win and cover the 7 as Boldin is now questionable and the winds will be swirling in Giants Stadium for that Arizona passing game.

Eagles vs. Redskins
Thank you Eagles.  If I didn’t already dislike you because I’m a Giants fan, than thanks for coming up with the worst performance of the season and not only coming up short to the Raiders but not covering as well.  I suppose I really should thank you for losing and not gaining ground in the division.  With all that said, the Eagles truly are an awesome complete team and I’m still scratching my head over that loss last week.  I think they are looking to make someone pay, and unfortunately for Jim Zorn it is going to be his Redskins who will most likely be his last game.  That team is in a tailspin and coming into a divisional rival who just got the crap kicked out of them by the worst team in the NFL.  Donovan McNabb and his weapons will come to play this week.  The Eagles are giving 7 and I’m going with it.

In summary for those who hate to read:
  • KC +4.5
  • Colts -13
  • Bengals -1.5
  • Packers -7
  • Vikings +4
  • Patriots -14.5
  • Houston -3
  • Raiders +6.5
  • Panthers -1
  • Dolphins +6.5
  • Cowboys -4
  • Giants -7
  • Eagles -7










Category: NFL
Tags: NFL Picks
 
Comments

Since: May 19, 2009
Posted on: November 1, 2009 12:06 am
 

NFL Week 8 picks

Not only the Cowboys will blow out the Seattle Seahawks by 14, but there is a game to watch on Sunday in the PM, that's Green Bay v. Minnesota that will be the Game of the week.......Favre will get cheers and boos at the same time.....just watch.... Two games to watch, However there just might be a game with Detroit that might give Matt  Stafford some confidence against the Rams another one to watch...but confidence might come in New Jersey with the N.Y. Jets v. Miami Dolphins, I think that Sanchez will do damage to that Secondary with his two Targets ........ 



Since: May 19, 2009
Posted on: October 31, 2009 11:56 pm
 

NFL Week 7 Picks

When the Cowboys play at the new Stadium against the Seahawks it won't be pretty Cowboys by 14..... 34-20....   Looks like you needed to be updated.......



Since: Feb 20, 2009
Posted on: October 23, 2009 3:58 pm
 

NFL Week 7 Picks

Jomaz - thanks for your comment.  here is what I think in addition to the post.  Maybe I'm repeating myself and I apologize if I have done so.
Chargers vs. Chiefs
The problem I see with the Chargers and Chiefs in particular is that the Chargers Defense has been horrid.  They haven't stopped anyone
and this reminds me much of the Dallas and Chiefs game, where the Chiefs lost in overtime.  I think the Chiefs have been gaining momentum and the Chargers have been going in the other direction.  I think people are under the impression that this is the Charger team of old.  Lets remember that the only have 2 wins this season for a reason and that is only one better than the Chiefs.  The Chiefs (while a bad team, I don't argue that) have played tough all season and were only embarrassed by the Giants.  They have shown the ability to keep it close and Matt Cassel hasn't thrown a pick in weeks and has been able to move the ball.  As for the Chargers, it shows me alot about a team when they have two weeks to prepare for an opponent, are playing at home, and get embarrassed.  They didn't lose because they didn't show up to play, they lost because they just aren't as good as the Broncos.  Only time will tell.

Vikings vs. Steelers
As for the Vikings game, everyone has been picking the Steelers this week and have talked about how the Vikings haven't played anyone.  Really?  Who have the Steelers played?  As for Polamalu, he played last week and the lowly Browns were still able to put up points.  The fact is that defensive line is banged up and teams have been able to run on them.  With that said, who has the best running back in the league?  The Vikings.  Not to mention that the Steelers have a propensity for giving up sacks and the Vikings have been solid in this department all year.  The Steelers have burned me all season because they cannot cover on games and with a quality opponent coming to town I don't expect them to this week either.

Cowboys vs. Falcons
Dallas has huge motivation here and has had two weeks to prepare.  Everyone is quick to jump on the Falcon bandwagon and I can see why.  I agree that they are very good, and may be better than the Cowboys, but I think Dallas is going to be prepared and amped for this game.  With a pass rush coming together and the emergence of a nice WR, they will be tough for the Falcons to stop.

Miami Line - you are correct. I meant Dolphins +6.5.  Thanks!

- M



Since: Oct 19, 2009
Posted on: October 23, 2009 3:14 pm
 

NFL Week 7 Picks

I disagree on a couple of your picks

KC +4.5: Chargers got embarassed at home by the broncos and i think this is a perfect opportunity to pick up a win against a shaky team.  Chiefs offense is pretty bad, and they can't put up points.  Four field goals wont' get it done agains the Chargers.  I say they cover

Vikings +4:  Vikings luck runs out this week.  Polamalu's back, and the Steelers' O can hang with the Vikings O.  I say the steel curtain is revived and the Steelers handily beat the Vikes by 7+.

Cowboys -4: The cowboys are not impressive, the falcons are.  Falc's will cover, but i'm picking them to win straight up.

I like the rest of your picks though (and i think you meant dolphins +6.5)


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