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Blog Entry

NFL Week 8 Picks

Posted on: October 29, 2009 6:43 pm
 
Vegas last week suffered their worst loss with NFL games.  They just can’t seem to make the lines big enough to scare away bettors from taking the favorites and last week most covered.  The NFL clearly is a league of have and have nots and there have been too many unwatchable games this season.  With that said, I have had only one losing week thus far in the season and I’m holding up in my pool league.  I have had a few break even weeks and even managed to sprinkle in a couple of 10 win weeks against the spread.  Here is my lineup with reasoning of course for week 8.  As always, best of luck.
- M

Ravens vs. Broncos
This should be one of the best games this week as both teams are very complete. The Broncos have been one of the best teams in the NFL this season and have been playing with an extremely high level of confidence and deservedly so.  They have beaten some of the best teams in the league and will once again have to rise up to the challenge when they face the Ravens.  If you haven’t been able to tell already that I love really good teams coming off a bye week.  Give a good coaching staff, a quality team, and two weeks to prepare for the opponent usually spells bad news for anyone playing them. The problem is what do you do when both teams are coming off bye weeks?  Given that the spread is more than a field goal, and both teams seem evenly matched, I’m taking the Broncos on the road getting 3.5.  Eddie Royal looks to be coming around, Brandon Marshall is too much for any cover guy, and the running game is solid on Denver’s side.  The surprise for me has been the Denver defense that has great defensive backs especially with the addition of Brian Dawkins.  Flacco and the Ravens defense are great, but I don’t think better at this point.

Bears vs. Browns
Can I have a refund if I’m a season ticket holder and have to attend this game?  The Browns are pitiful and the Bears are on the verge of becoming irrelevant, especially if they lose to the Browns.  Chicago was embarrassed last week versus Cincy as I expected they would be.  They will be very motivated to beat up on the Browns this week who rank near the bottom in every statistical category for offense and defense.  For as bad as the Browns have been this year they have managed to keep most of their games close for some reason.  Though they were killed by the Packers last week (31-3), they were also out for most of the week recovering from the flu.  I think Chicago is obviously the better team, but I’m not confident they are two touchdown favorites versus anyone.  Jay Cutler does not look confident at all and he is really missing that beast Brandon Marshall who can make even the likes of the great porn ‘stache having Kyle Orton look like a stud.  I take the Browns this week and the 13.5 points.

Texans vs. Bills
Houston has come around as I expected they would and Matt Schaub has been one of the leagues best leading the team to three straight victories.  Andre Johnson appears as he will play this week after being out with a bruised lung.  Owen Daniels may be the leagues best kept secret as he may be the best TE in the league.  The Bills on the other hand have really surprised me and have put a string of victories together of their own.  I have to say that I’m truly shocked that this team has won some unexpected games.  I’m not sure if Ryan Fitzpatrick is the answer but he was effective.  I think this may be smoke and mirrors as they beat lowly Carolina last week and beat an unimpressive Jets team at the time.  Lets not forget that they lost 6-3 to the Browns two weeks before that.  I have to go with Houston giving 3.5 points here.  They are the better team, their defense has been playing much better and they only thing that may keep it close is the bad weather that is expected for this game as it may slow down the Houston passing attack.

Packers vs. Vikings
Everyone is jumping on the Packers bandwagon.  Why?  They beat the dreadful Browns at home and Detroit the past two weeks.  Their other two wins were against the Rams and Chicago.  I’m not sold and I’m not impressed.  I saw and remember the beating Aaron Rodgers took the last time these two teams played.  Rodgers is still among the league leaders in sacks and the offensive line is horrid.  They are also thin at running back and recently re-signed Ahman Green.  Minnesota to me is the much better team and it’s not like they are going into unfamiliar territory.  As I recall Favre played here once or twice.  They should have won their last game versus the Steelers and gave it away by allowing two defensive touchdowns each from the opponents red zone.  The Vikings will be angry here and Rodgers will once again be running for his life.  I take the Vikings and the 3 points.

Colts vs. 49ers
San Fran made a very nice comeback versus the Texans last week and looked like a different team in the second half.  With Frank Gore back and still getting healthier and newly minted Michael Crabtree they will have a full compliment for what appears to be late bloomer Alex Smith.  Too bad they are facing the Colts in the dome this week.  Would like their chances if they were playing in San Francisco, but with Peyton Manning hitting full stride no matter who he plays with, any team coming into town is in trouble. Bob Sanders is also back and Dwight Freeney should be ready to go.  Spells doom and gloom for the 49ers. I hate giving up this many points to a good team but I think the Colts are likely to cover the 12.5.

Jets vs. Dolphins
This game is always fun to watch no matter which team is good or bad.  Some how it always ends up in a shoot out and as a fan you have to love it.  It’s nice to see that both teams are good and it makes for great drama.  Mark Sanchez will take a break from his Kobayashi impersonation to take on a tired and battered Miami team.  That loss, for me last week was unbearable.  Miami let it slip away and my pick with it.  After watching both teams over the past few weeks it seems clear that the Jets are a very nice team, is capable of beating anyone, and goes as their young quarterback goes.  He is still learning and this team while nice is a season or two from taking that next step.  Miami just seems more comfortable on offense and they know who they are.  They beat the Jets a few weeks ago and now they are getting 3 points this week.  Why?  Because they lost to the best team in football in the Saints, or because the Jets destroyed the horrible Oakland Raiders?  I take the 3 points and the better team at this point in Miami.

Lions vs. Rams
Another refund alert!  The NFL must be pissed this year with how bad the teams are divided.  The have and have nots have such a wide margin that there haven’t been many good football games to watch this season and in fact even I have been a little bored at times.  With that said, I would rather watch paint dry than watch these two terrible teams play.  Matthew Stafford appears as he will play this week but Calvin Johnson does not.  Does it matter for the Rams?  Beyond Steven Jackson they don’t have a starter in anyone else for any other team other than the Raiders and the Browns.  The Lions are giving 4 points and just because they are playing at home (where they are tough) and coming off a bye week I think they will cover.

Cowboys vs. Seahawks
The Cowboys looked very impressive versus a very good Falcons team last week and Miles Austin is a beast.  Roy Williams who?  DeMarcus Ware just got paid and big time with a $40 million extension.  With him anchoring the defensive line they have been playing much better and made Matt Ryan look pedestrian as they pummeled him all night.  The Falcons unlike the Seahawks have a very good offensive line and this should be a long day for Matt Hasselbeck who will be under pressure all day.  It’s tough to play in Dallas let alone from your back.  I will take Dallas and give the 9.5 points as the offense is coming together and the defense will be dominating versus a bad o-line.

Chargers vs. Raiders
The Raiders beat the Eagles and shock the world, they almost had us all believing, then we were reminded that they are the Raiders and we were thrown back to reality when they got crushed by the Jets.  The Raiders seem to play hard when they are in the game, but get them down two touchdowns and this team seems to quit.  The last game with the Chargers was a close one, but Oakland and the Chargers have gone in different directions since then.  The Chargers offense is explosive and should get up on them in a hurry leaving Oakland to ponder why they dressed for the game in the first place.  LT seems to still be fighting injury but they should still have enough.  McFadden will not be back for this game, and not that it would matter because the offense is terrible no matter who is in the backfield.  It is a huge line but what the heck…teams have been covering any ways.  I give the 16.5.

Titans vs. Jaguars
The up and down Jaguars are coming off a bye week as are the Titans.  In their last games the Jags barely got by the Rams and the Titans will be coming back after that 59-0 drubbing by the Patriots.  So many questions surround Tennessee.  Now it is uncertain who will be the quarterback, Kerry Collins or Vince Young.  All things are pointing towards Vince as the owner is asking for it and usually coaches follow the guy who cuts the checks.  This does not bode well for a team already defunct and who has cashed in the season.  The Jags on the other hand have a ton to play for.  Though they have not impressed at 3-3 they are pretty much still in the thick of things and need to start beating bad teams like the Titans.  I haven’t picked the Titans since week 3 and there is no reason to start, especially with a motivated opponent coming to town.  Jacksonville is getting 3 points and I’ll take it.

Cardinals vs. Panthers
These are two teams going in the opposite direction.  Arizona is on the rise and the defense played very well versus the Giants, and the offense has begun to come together since that game versus the Texans.  Anquan Boldin appears as though he will play this week and Beanie Wells has given them a running game when he is not putting the ball on the ground.  This high powered offense is capable of taking it to anyone, least of all the Panthers.  The Panthers on the other hand are a wild card.  This is a team with a ton of talent in DeAngelo Williams, and Steve Smith, but their only two wins were against the Redskins and the Buccaneers.  With Jake Delhomme passing more picks than TD’s and an Arizona defense on the rise, it doesn’t bode well for the Panthers playing at Arizona.  The Cardinals are the pick for me and I think they cover the 10 points.

Giants vs. Eagles
Two of the NFL’s best teams (although not playing like it) will square off for what should be one of the most entertaining games of the week.  Philly has looked pretty bad in their loss to the Raiders and didn’t look that good in a win versus a very bad Redskin team.  The Giants on the other hand were destroyed and exposed during the Saints game and again showed their weakness in the defensive secondary in their loss to the Cardinals.  Both teams are capable of beating any NFL team in the league, but at this point no one is sure which team is going to show up.  The Eagles have the vertical game to give the Giants an extremely difficult time, especially with Thomas still bothered by the hamstring and CC Brown is just terrible (Hint to Giants: if Houston drops you then there was a reason for it).  The problem with Philly is Brian Westbrook will be pulling his usual 2-3 games off due to some nagging injury as he seems to do every season.  I look for the Giants to have a bounce back game as the Eagles offense seems out of sync.  At least the Giants have been able to move the ball and score.  In a pick’em I take the Giants.

Saints vs. Falcons
Matt Ryan spent a good deal of time on the carpet during last week’s game against the Cowboys.  The final score for both weeks’ games does not tell the whole story as the Dallas & Atlanta game was not close at all and the Saints needed at miraculous comeback after a 28 point deficit to rally past the Dolphins.  With regards to this particular game, the edge has to go to the Saints who have been playing on another level.  Atlanta’s rushing attack did not impress last week and I suspect that this will be more of a shootout then a control the clock type of a game.  In the end you can’t have a shootout with the best offense in the league; therefore the edge has to go to the Saints.  Even with a line of -10 I think the Saints will cover.

For those who hate to read:
  • Denver +3.5
  • Browns +13.5
  • Houston -3.5
  • Vikings +3
  • Colts -12.5
  • Miami +3
  • Lions -4
  • Cowboys -9.5
  • Chargers -16.5
  • Jaguars +3
  • Arizona -10
  • Giants  PK
  • Saints -10


Category: NFL
Tags: NFL, Picks
 
Comments

Since: Oct 31, 2009
Posted on: October 31, 2009 8:43 pm
 

NFL Week 8 Picks

A lot of good information in your picks.
Overall, very nicely done.  But I do have 2 picks I have to strongly disagree with (interestingly enough, both teams should be picking up their first wins of the season this week):

Lions vs. Rams
St. Louis is finally playing a team that they will be able to throw the ball against.  Running the ball opens up room for the passing game, and vice versa in this case.  I see Bulger having a big game and Jackson as well, especially if they work the sidelines in the running game.  This game could actually turn out to be a pretty high scoring affair.  QB situation for Lions is game time decision as well. Rams + 4.

Titans vs. Jags
Jacksonville is heading on a downward slope. After losing 0-41 to the Seahawks, the Jags barely came away with a win at home in OT against the Rams.  Yes, they are coming off of a bye week, but they are playing on the road and the Titans are going to be looking for blood after their embarassing loss in New England.  Vince Young will be taking over as QB, and no I don't think he will have anything close to a spectacular performance, but I do think a little shakeup is what the Titans need (Though I don't like how Bud Adams handled the situation).  I'm picking Titans -3.


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