Blog Entry

Jered Weaver should have WAY more than 14 wins

Posted on: August 17, 2011 6:56 pm
Edited on: August 17, 2011 8:02 pm
Thanks a ton to those who read my first, second, and third posts.

CY Young candidate Jered Weaver is having a fantastic season, He is leading the MLB in ERA, and is 3rd in Whip. However, the stat that jumps out at me are his 14 wins, which, amazingly is 3rd in the AL. This stat is so fascinating because Weaver is 2nd to last in the MLB in Run Support. An interesting point on the statistical side of things is the fact that John Lackey, the player that gets the best Run Support in the MLB, has the WORST ERA of anyone in the MLB. Because of that, I decided to calculate how Weaver would do if his run support was better, adjusting for the bullpen of the respective team 

  1. First, I compared his starts to everyone of John Lackey's starts. (Since Lackey only had 20 starts, compared to Weaver's 25, I took Lackey's Run Support average as the run support given in the extra 5 games.)
  2. Next, I did the same thing for the player with the second best Run support in the league, Derek Holland
  3. I then calculated Weaver's record if he received the MLB average Run Support for every one of his Starts
  4. After that, I did the same as above, but this time used the Seattle Mariners, the worst scoring team in baseball's, Runs a game average
  5. Finally, i calculated Weavers Win-Loss if he received the Runs per Game of the highest scoring team in MLB history, the Boston Beaneaters, who averaged over 7 runs per game  

  1. Weaver w/ John Lackey run support... 19-3 (using Jonathan Papelbon save percentage for Bullpen factor)
  2. Weaver w/ Derek Holland run support... 18-3 (using Neftali Feliz save percentage for Bullpen factor)
  3. Weaver w/ MLB Average run support... 17-1 Using MLB average save percentage for Bullpen factor)
  4. Weaver w/ 2011 Seattle Mariners run support... 19-3 (using Brandon League save percentage for Bullpen factor)
  5. Weaver w/ 1894 Boston Beaneater run support... 24-1 (using Closer Tom Smith save percentage as Bullpen factor)

Stat's all folks. If you have any questions about this post, please ask in the comments. Please subscribe in the top right corner, If you Follow me on Twitter, or Favorite me as a user, I'll Follow, favorite you back.
Category: MLB
Tags: Boston, Mariners

Since: Jul 10, 2009
Posted on: August 22, 2011 3:36 pm

Jered Weaver should have WAY more than 14 wins

I became acutely aware of run support in 2005 when I had Roger Clemens on my fantasy team.  That year while pitching for the Astros he had an ERA of 1.87 a whip of 1.01 and a BA against of .198.  The W-L was 13-8.  The following year we increased the value of a QS to try and compensate for the elite level pitcher on a team with a AAA offense.  Accordingly we have seen the Cy Young go to Zach Greinke and Felix Hernandez in the past two years, pitchers who didn't have the W-L credentials.  
Mike Pelfrey who 15-9 last year would have been close to 20 wins with some help from his offense. 
Interesting blog approach. 

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