Blog Entry

Week 9: safe bets by DC

Posted on: November 8, 2009 8:42 am
 
When one bets on the NFL, there is no such thing as a safe bet. The number one rule in investing is NEVER LOSE MONEY. If you are like me, your 401k has lost a lot of money over the last few years. Since I was losing money on Wall Street, I decided to put some money into NFL bets. At least if I lose money, its still entertaining.  Here is my new rule: NEVER LOSE MONEY...UNLESS YOU ARE GETTING ENTERTAINMENT FROM THE RISKY INVESTMENT.

With that being said, here are my bets for week 9. I'll be back in the middle of the week to discuss.

(Home team in CAPS)

Jaguars (-6.5) over Chiefs

The Chiefs have a sign in their locker room that says, "Losers assemble in small groups and complain about their coaches and other players. Winners assemble as a team and find ways to WIN."  Their alternative option was a sign that said "Hey, Larry Johnson, get the F out of Kansas City."

Bengals (+3) over Ravens

If the Ravens play like they can, like they did last week, they'll cover. But much like last week, I'm still going to pick against the Ravens simply because of the spread. The Bengals shouldn't be the dog at home.

Texans (+9) over Colts

The Colts don't blow out good teams. The Texans will be able to keep it close. Apologies to Steve Slaton fantasy owners who probably ran their collective heads through a wall last week as Ryan Moats exploded on the scene to, at worst, take over Slaton's job, and at best, make the Texans join the dreaded group of teams with a running back by committee situation.

Falcons (-10) over Redskins

Nothing helps you recover from two losses in a row like playing the Redskins, the team who loves to give wins to others feeling down and out. I feel badly for the Skins fans.

Packers (-9.5) over Buccaneers

The Packers have beaten other members of the Sucky Bunch -- the Rams, Lions, and Browns -- by an average of over 23 points. They can't beat good teams, but they can sure beat up on bad ones. LOCK OF THE WEEK.

Cardinals (+3) over Bears

In the opposite of last year, the Cardinals are very strong on the road and can't get it done at home. But after last week I wonder if we are due for another Kurt Warner implosion, when he's done on a team he really sucks it up for his final few games.

Dolphins (+11) over Patriots

When the Dolphins drafted Ted Ginn Jr. with the ninth overall pick in 2007, they knew it would pay off for them in the return game for one game in the middle of the 2009 season. That must have been the plan all along.

Saints (-13) over Panthers

Congratulations Panthers, you no longer suck. Unfortunately for you, your schedule is far too hard for below average to translate into a playoff berth. Delhomme is due for another messy game.

Seahawks (-10) over Lions

I wrote this down, then felt there is no way I can pick the Seahawks to cover a 10-point spread. Then I wrote down the Lions and said there is no way I can pick the Lions. So, I'm back to square one without an ounce of confidence. Seattle does have two blowout wins at home, but they are also the most injured team in the NFL.

49ers (-4) over Titans

The All-Disappointing QB Bowl! The winner will be the guy who hands off to their star running back the most.

Chargers (+5) over Giants

And this is the Paper Tiger Bowl. The Giants only have one quality win and are falling apart. The Chargers maybe have one quality win, it's debatable. These teams are no good.

Eagles (-3) over Cowboys

DeSean Jackson frightens me more than any man in the NFC East. My Eagles will beat the Cowboys. I feel 95% confident about this bet.

Steelers (-3) over Broncos

The Broncos were exposed last week. They are an average team. Luckily for them, average is way better than the rest of the AFC West.

There it is. Safe bets by DC. (by safe bets, I'm talking about the safest risk that can be taken, when you expect to lose a little)

Comments

Since: Sep 15, 2009
Posted on: November 10, 2009 8:00 am
 

Week 9: safe bets by DC

With the Steelers covering the spread last night, my record for week 9 goes to 8 /13, or 61%.

Games that I got wrong:
Jaguars by 3: missed on the spread (-6.5)
Buccanears by 10: missed on the spread (-9.5)
Saints by 10: missed on the spread (-13)
Titans by 7: missed on the spread (-4)
Cowboys by 4: missed on the spread (-3)

Games that made me money:
Steelers by 18: covered the spread (-3)
Seahawks by 12: covered the spread (-10)
Chargers by 1: covered the spread (5)
Patriots by 10: covered the spread (-11)
Falcons by 14: covered the spread (-10)
Cardinals by 20: covered the spread (3)
Bengals by 10: covered the spread (3)
Colts by 3: covered the spread (9)

61% of my picks were correct.




Since: Sep 15, 2009
Posted on: November 9, 2009 8:39 am
 

Week 9: safe bets by DC

Time to face the music.

Falcons by 14: covered the spread (-10)
Cardinals by 20: covered the spread (3)
Bengals by 10: covered the spread (3)
Colts by 3: covered the spread (9)
Jaguars by 3: missed on the spread (-6.5)
Patriots by 10: covered the spread (-11)
Buccanears by 10: missed on the spread (-9.5)
Saints by 10: missed on the spread (-13)
Seahawks by 12: covered the spread (-10)
Chargers by 1: covered the spread (5)
Titans by 7: missed on the spread (-4)
Cowboys by 4: missed on the spread (-3)

(7 / 12)  58% of my picks made money. I'll update this tomorrow, after the Steelers cover the 3 points tonight.

As I said above, you have to expect to lose a little, but this week I came out ahead. The game that killed me was the Eagles vs Cowboys. I had that game as a lock, but I was wrong. There were 15 penalties in the game. If you ask me, that is way too many penalites.

I missed on the Bucs beating the Packers, but nobody saw that one coming. Josh Freeman looked pretty good in his first start. The people in Tampa finally have something to look forward to on Sundays. They have no shot at the playoffs this season, but at least they can get a preview of their franchise QB.

I picked the 49ers on this post, but in my Pick'em pools I took the Titans. I had a feeling that they were going to take this game, but I was trying to give some credit to the 49ers. Chris Johnson is a complete monster.

The Chiefs did enough this week so the Jags couldn't cover the spread. I expected a better showing from Jacksonville.

The Panthers kept it close early, but in the end, they couldn't stay out of their own way. The Saints won the game, even though they didn't play that great. I thought the 13 points was a little high, but I figured that Jake Delhomme would have thrown 4/5 interceptions.




Since: Aug 19, 2008
Posted on: November 8, 2009 8:49 pm
 

Week 9: safe bets by DC

Ooof that hurts missing on your lock pick of the week, i hate when i do that.



Since: Sep 16, 2009
Posted on: November 8, 2009 12:33 pm
 

Week 9: safe bets by DC



Best pick & lock of the week. I have $500 on the Eagles giving 3.

 



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