Blog Entry

WEEK 13 Scenarios

Posted on: December 1, 2009 1:18 am
 
Based on New Orleans' victory over New England, here are the updated official NFL tiebreaker scenarios that will be released tomorrow:

NEW ORLEANS Saints

New Orleans clinches South division:
1) NO win or tie
2) ATL loss or tie

MINNESOTA Vikings

Minnesota clinches North division:
1) MIN win + GB loss

Minnesota clinches playoff spot:
1) MIN win
2) MIN tie + NYG loss + ATL loss or tie

INDIANAPOLIS Colts

Indianapolis clinches a first-round bye:
1) IND win + DEN loss or tie + NE loss or tie + CIN loss


Joe

Comments

Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 6, 2009 1:50 am
 

WEEK 13 Scenarios

Wayne:

You are correct, but I'm pretty sure wasn't saying BUF controlled its own destiny for the division title, just that the BEST they can hope for is the division title and #4 seed.

Jeff...I see BALT having a shot at #1 seed if they win out and ends 11-5, win the division, get to 8-4 in conf record, INDY loses out and ends up 11-5 and 7-5 in conf record.  Now...let's say SD wins West at 11-5 and they are all division winners with best record.  H2h doesn't apply as IND beat BALT but BALT beat SD and SD didn't play INDY.  If SD loses at least one conference game in their 2 losses, they would be 8-4 in conf record (if they lose two conf games, BALT would win #1 seed based on conf record anyway).  If SD is 8-4 in AFC, INDY would drop out of tiebreaker with 7-5 conf record and it would revert to H2H with BALT and SD and BALT would get #1 seed due to H2H win.

Also, SF could get a #2 seed if they get to 10-6 and 9-3 record, MIN loses out but wins division at 10-6 and 8-4 and PHIL wins East at 10-6 which would include a conf loss to SF.  In H2H, SF split with MIN and PHIL but MIN didn't play PHIL.  MIN would drop out of tiebreak on conf record and either SF would win on conf record OR, if PHIL's only conf loss is to SF, SF would win on H2H.

Always watch out for teams dropping DOWN into ties and helping other teams that have H2H disadvantages. 




Since: Dec 17, 2008
Posted on: December 6, 2009 1:17 am
 

WEEK 13 Scenarios

Jeff,

Sorry to inform you that buffalo cannot clinch div at 8-8, if ne beats mia this sunday

in 4 way tie ne wins div record at 4-2 vs buf 3-3 . this will also happen if buf beats ne at later date in 2 way tie.

in 3 way with mia

      
;     &nbs
p;    H2H
ne     &nb
sp;      3-1     &n
bsp;  wins due to sweep of mia
buf     &n
bsp;     2
-2
mia     &n
bsp;    1-3

in 3 way with nyjets

      
;     &nbs
p;    H2H     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;  Div
ne     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;2-2    &nbs
p;     &nb
sp;    4-2    wins best div recd
buf     &n
bsp;     2
-2     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;   3-3
nyjets     
;  2-2   &
nbsp;     
      
;2-4


Wayne





Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 6, 2009 12:08 am
 

WEEK 13 Scenarios

Hey, jeff, I have a slight tweak for you.  The Giants can get the 1st seed.  You missed the idea of a 3-way between MIN, NO, and NYG.  In a 3-way tie between those teams, NYG would actually win the tiebreak.  If MIN's one win comes to CIN, then NYG would win the tiebreak outright with conference record.  If MIN's one win comes to one of the other teams (other than NYG, obviously), then NO is eliminated from the tiebreak in conference record, then NYG beats MIN on head-to-head.  Thus, NYG could still get the 1st seed.



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: December 5, 2009 11:44 pm
 

WEEK 13 Scenarios

In the NFC East:

I also forgot this one.  Duh me.  Washington CANNOT win the division and therefore the best seed they can get is 5th. 


      
;     &nbs
p;     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     
      
;     &nbs
p;     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     Jeff     &
nbsp;   Surprised



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: December 5, 2009 11:36 pm
 

WEEK 13 Scenarios


    Just some tidbits not mentioned here yet, but probably known by most of the regulars here.  Since not posted before, I will post them now.  These are the little things I have most time to figure, since I don't have quite as much time to do all the tirbreaking stuff anymore.  Let me know if you see anything wrong here guys.  Thanks,     Jeff

In the AFC East:

Best seed Miami and the Jets could get come playoff time is 2nd.  Neither of them can get to the 11 wins that Indy already has.  Same thing was applicable for Buffalo before they played on Thursday, but now that Buffalo lost to the Jets, if the Bills somehow win the East at 8-8, then the best seed they can earn is 4th.

In the AFC North:

Baltimore can only get as high as the #2 seed, as the best they can do is match Indy at 11-5 and they lost to Indy, so the #1 seed is out for them.

In the AFC South:

Here's the obvious overstatement of playoff scenarios.  Best that Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Houston can earn is the 5 seed.

In the AFC West:

Kansas City and Oakland cannot catch San Diego for the division and thus the best seed each can earn is 5th.

In the NFC East:

The Giants can't be seeded any higher than 2nd, as they can only match New Orleans at 11-5 and they lost to New Orleans.

In the NFC North:

Chicago cannot win the division and thus can only be seeded as high as 5th.

In the NFC South:

Carolina cannot win the division and thus can only be seeded as high as 5th.

In the NFC West:

If either San Francisco or Seatte win the division, the best seed they can attain is the #3 seed and that means neither team can earn a bye for the 1st round of the playoffs.


Just wanted to contribute some.     
      
;     &nbs
p;     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     Jeff     &
nbsp;     
Wink



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 5, 2009 7:59 pm
 

WEEK 13 Scenarios

I've given the common games sweep idea more thought and I don't like it as much anymore.
(I don't like how a team could have a common games sweep but at the same time lose head-to-head to one of the other tied teams.)

I like the following idea better...
In a 3 or 4-way tie, before any 3 or 4-way tie breaking steps are applied, the 2-way tie-breaking steps should be applied in full to each pair of teams in the 3 or 4-way tie. If team A wins a 2-way tie-breaker over team B and over team C, then A should get the Wild Card. Maybe A beat B head-to-head, and A has a better conference record than C. -Let's call this a "2-way tie-break sweep".

As it stands now, in the scenario above, team B could get the Wild Card if it has a better conference record than A. However, I think A's head-to-head win over B should trump B's better conference record (just as it would naturally if team C wasn't involved).

The "2-way tie-break sweep" would allow for "a common games sweep" but only if the tied teams did not play head-to-head (or they tied in their head-to-head meeting(s), and only if the tied teams have the same conference record.

The current tie-break step, "head-to-head sweep" could be replaced by "2-way tie-break sweep". This is because any team that has a "head-to-head sweep" would naturally have a "2-way tie-break sweep" (by virtue of their head-to-head wins).



Since: Dec 17, 2008
Posted on: December 4, 2009 11:15 pm
 

WEEK 13 Scenarios

i think the idea of having h2h common games sweep is an interesting idea. but when comparing common games, in this step should also include common strength of schedule and maybe common net points and maybe common net touchdowns. But these steps should be after the current tiebreaker rule.

I would also like to see an 18 game schedule so that it would add more common opponents to teams that only play each other.
 for example the 1st place club also plays the 3rd place club in the games where they currently play only one team

the SOV to me is not a very good tiebreaker as most of the teams in the playoffs beat up on opponents having less than .500 record.
only one team had an over .500 record and they had a losing overall record
 



Since: Dec 24, 2007
Posted on: December 4, 2009 9:26 pm
 

WEEK 13 Scenarios

Lensova,

Thanks a bunch for clearing my question up. 5 stars for you my friend. Laughing



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 4, 2009 8:29 pm
 

WEEK 13 Scenarios

Thanks Joe...do you have an answer to my common games sweep question?

Suppose Baltimore, San Diego, and Houston finish with identical overall records and identical conference records. The next tie-breaking step is Common Games. However, Oakland and Cincinnati are the only common opponents among all three teams. The minimum requirement of 4 common games is not met and the tie-breaking step, therefore, is skipped over. Or is it?

Suppose Baltimore has a better common games record vs. Houston AND a better common games record vs. San Diego. Wouldn't it make sense to award the Wild Card to Baltimore? Likewise, if Houston and San Diego each have a better common games record vs. Baltimore, does it not make sense to eliminate Baltimore at this tie-breaking step?

Joe, do you know if "common games sweep" would be considered if a 3-way tie comes down to "common games record"?

If it has never been discussed officially, I think, given the way the tie-breaking step is written, it would be valid to use a "common games sweep".

However this makes it a little tricky....
Between Baltimore, Denver, and Houston, it would be possible for Denver to have the best record in games common among all 3 teams, but for Baltimore to sweep Denver and Houston in common games. Therefore, if "common games sweep" is used (or will be in the future), it needs to be a separate tie-breaking step, before or after "record in games common among all tied teams".



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 4, 2009 6:28 pm
 

WEEK 13 Scenarios

Brett....

We got those corrected in the NFL Record and Fact Book (except the Dallas-Detroit 1999 common games record), but NFL.com hasn't corrected the website.

We will let them know.  They'll get to it sometime next decade.



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