Blog Entry

WEEK 14 - The Calm before the Storm

Posted on: December 8, 2009 4:32 am
 
WEEK 14 SCENARIOS

NEW ORLEANS Saints
New Orleans has clinched the South division title.

New Orleans clinches a first-round bye:
   1) NO win or tie
   2) DAL loss or tie + PHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

MINNESOTA Vikings
Minnesota clinches North division:
   1) MIN win + GB loss
Minnesota clinches a playoff spot:
   1) MIN win
   2) MIN tie + NYG loss

ARIZONA Cardinals
Arizona clinches West division:
   1) ARI win

INDIANAPOLIS Colts
Indianapolis has clinched the South division title.

Indianapolis clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) IND win
   2) IND tie + CIN loss + SD loss
Indianapolis clinches a first-round bye:
   1) IND tie
   2) CIN loss or tie + SD loss
   3) CIN loss + SD loss or tie

SAN DIEGO Chargers
San Diego clinches a playoff spot:
   1) SD win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + MIA loss or tie
   2) SD win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + NE loss or tie
   3) SD win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + JAC tie + NE loss
   4) SD tie + BAL loss + PIT loss + NYJ loss + MIA loss

CINCINNATI Bengals
Cincinnati clinches North division:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   3) BAL loss + PIT loss 


KEY GAMES WEEK 14:
THURS 12/10
- PIT @ CLEV (Pitt last hope?)
SUN 12/13 (1PM)
- GB @ CHIC (Need to win this with PIT, SEA and ARIZ coming up)
- NO @ ATL (ATL still in running although bleak, NO looking for HFA)
- DET @ BALT (MNF loss a killer for BALT...need to stay with JAX)
- DEN @ INDY (DEN still in div hunt and 2 of last 3 are easier, OAK and KC)
- NYJ @ TB (Jets still alive...but last 3 games tough with ATL, IND and CIN)
- CAR @ NE (Pats still stinging from MIA loss...need to bounce back)
- MIA @ JAX (Huge game for AFC Tiebreak...can separate JAX or bunch it up)
- CIN @ MIN (both teams battling for playoff bye)
SUN 12/13 (4PM)
- SD @ DAL (SD on a roll looking to get div and bye, DALL has TOUGH road ahead)
SUN 12/13 (8:30PM)
- PHIL @ NYG (NFC East crown likely on line due to DALL sked)
MON 12/14
- ARIZ @ SF (Division crown on line)

ELIMINATED TEAMS:
DET, STL, TB, CLEV, WASH, KC

Current Seeds IF SEASON ENDED TODAY:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standi
ngs/playoffrace

(Tip:  You can mouse over team names in playoff race and get Remaining Schedule)

Lensova...please post your "Spectrum of Possibilities" note here...

Scot...please post your "Controls Own Destiny" note that you stole from Lensova here...

Comments

Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 15, 2009 3:21 am
 

WEEK 14 - The Calm before the Storm

nflrules, agn,

The NFL's Strength of Victory records for Philadelphia and Cincinnati last season is pretty hard evidence that "half-victories", aka ties, do not count towards Strength of Victory.

However, the NFL and their website sometimes makes mistakes. For example, check your 1999 common games between Dallas and Detroit. In that example, they mistakenly counted Dallas's two wins over the Redskins as only one win.

I know about Joe's experience working with the NFL - I've mentioned this when I referred to his post last year when he said head-to-head records count in 3-way Wild-Card ties between teams in different divisions (in the absence of a sweep), as long as they've each played each of the other teams (despite the official rules only referring to "sweeps").

Maybe Joe can add some insight into the process for when a rule is not yet a written rule. Like how does it becomes a written rule?
Also, how is an outcome officially determined when the written rule leaves the outcome open to interpretation.

Thanks guys! Great discussion.



Since: Dec 7, 2009
Posted on: December 15, 2009 1:28 am
 

WEEK 14 - The Calm before the Storm

NFC week 15 scenarios:

NO Clinches HFA with win and MN loss or tie
MN clinches NFC North with win or GB loss or MN tie and GB tie
MN clinches bye with win and Phil loss or tie or MN tie and GB and Phil loss
GB clinches playoff with win and either DAL or NYG loss
ARI clinches NFC West with win and SF loss
PHI clinches playoff with win and NYG loss

I think this is it.....



Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 15, 2009 12:09 am
 

WEEK 14 - The Calm before the Storm

Joe, are you going to be creating a new post tonight?

I have three different posts ready (controlled seeds, spectrum of possibilities, and elimination scenarios), but if you're going to create a new post, I'll save them for that post.



Since: Dec 9, 2008
Posted on: December 15, 2009 12:02 am
 

WEEK 14 - The Calm before the Storm

Thanks both of you.  I do not know how I miss this stuff. i seriously take this stuff everywhere and try to figure this stuff out and i miss stupid stuff.



Since: Dec 19, 2007
Posted on: December 14, 2009 11:59 pm
 

WEEK 14 - The Calm before the Storm

ryanmarcantonio:
The best Oakland can do is reach 7-9.  Since Denver already has 8 wins, none of the teams currently at 7-6 can reach 8 wins.  So, MIA, BAL, JAX, and NYJ must all lose out.  However, in this scenario, PIT would win at least 2 games, putting them at 8-8 at worst.  Because of this, there is no scenario in which Oakland could end up as the #6 seed.



Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 14, 2009 11:52 pm
 

WEEK 14 - The Calm before the Storm

ryanmarcantonio:

OAK is eliminated because PIT plays both BAL and MIA.  Since the only way that the 6th best record in the AFC could be 7-9 would involve MIA and BAL losing out, that would give PIT 2 wins, which would put them at 8-8 at worst, which is better than the 7-9 that OAK could reach.



Since: Dec 9, 2008
Posted on: December 14, 2009 10:55 pm
 

WEEK 14 - The Calm before the Storm

how about the oakland question?



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: December 14, 2009 10:47 pm
 

WEEK 14 - The Calm before the Storm

If both SD and NE were to finish tied at 11-5, they'd have the same conference record (under this scenario, since it involves SD beating CIN), which would be 8-4.  Then you'd have to look at the common opponents (DEN, BAL, TEN, MIA), in which case, NE would hold the tiebreaker (3-2 vs 2-3).  Hence, a Patriots loss is needed to avoid this scenario.



Since: Dec 14, 2009
Posted on: December 14, 2009 10:30 pm
 

WEEK 14 - The Calm before the Storm

For San Diego to clinch a 1st round bye:  Why does New England have to lose/tie if the Chargers Win.  The Chargers would be up two games with two games left, so how does New England have the tiebreaker in that scenario?   Thanks.




Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: December 14, 2009 9:01 pm
 

WEEK 14 - The Calm before the Storm

agn, 

For confirmation, I checked the expanded NFL Final Standings for 2008 which includes each team's final SOV totals.  And yes, only PHI's 9 wins and CIN's 4 wins were calculated in their SOV, since their tie does not factor in:

      
;     &nbs
p;     &nb
sp;   Strength of Victory (Wins)
Philadelphia......70-74 .486 (70)

Cincinnati..........19-45 .297 (19)  


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