Play Fantasy The Most Award Winning Fantasy game with real time scoring, top expert analysis, custom settings, and more. Play Now
Blog Entry

WEEK 15 AFC SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 15, 2009 12:21 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 AFC
(LET'S KEEP THIS THREAD TO AFC WEEK 15 COMMENTS)

  CLINCHED:   Indianapolis -- South division and homefield advantage.
  ELIMINATED: Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland.

 SAN DIEGO Chargers

  San Diego clinches West division title:
   1) DEN loss
   2) SD win or tie + DEN tie
  San Diego clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SD win + DEN loss or tie + NE loss or tie
  San Diego clinches a playoff spot:
   1) SD win or tie
   2) NE loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + MIA loss or tie
   3) NE loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   4) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   5) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + JAC loss or tie
   6) MIA loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + JAC loss or tie
   7) NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + JAC loss or tie

 CINCINNATI Bengals

  Cincinnati clinches North division title:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) BAL loss
  Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot:
   1) CIN tie + MIA loss + NYJ loss + JAC loss

Comments

Since: Nov 2, 2006
Posted on: December 21, 2009 8:29 pm
 

Strength of Victory Numbers?

Anyone have any access to strength of victory numbers for the AFC?

My outlook for the rest of the teams:

Denver - Should be an underdog at Philly, should be a huge favorite over Kansas City - Probably 9-7

Baltimore - Should be an underdog at Pittsburgh, should be a favorite to Oakland - I can see them winning in Pittsburgh and losing at Oakland but probably will split.

Miami - Should be favored at home over Houston and Pittsburgh. I can see them losing one or the other, more likely Pittsburgh than Houston.

Tennessee - I think it's a tossup vs. San Diego and they should be favored over Seattle.

Pittsburgh - Favored at home to Baltimore, underdog at Miami. Could split other way as well, I would say tough for them to win both.

Jets - Will the Colts play to win or rest their starters. There may be a chance that Cincinnati will rest their starters as well. If Indy and/or Cincinnati play full strength, I doubt the Jets will win either. But if they both rest their starters, who knows?

Jacksonville - Underdog at New England, I don't think Cleveland is a gimme either but if they don't win in New England it doesn't matter anyway.

Houston - Would be an underdog to both Miami and New England.

If Miami wins both games, they are 9-7. If they do, Pittsburgh and Houston would be out since they would be guaranteed to lose to Miami and would be 8-8 at best. I think Jacksonville is a longshot to be 9-7. That leaves Denver, Baltimore, Miami, and Tennessee. Since Tennessee would be 5-7 in conference (4-0 vs NFC West) and would be eliminated unless they are in a head to head with just Miami. Baltimore would win a tiebreaker over Denver.

The strength of victory I think would come into play in these tiebreakers:

Denver vs Miami
Baltimore vs Miami
Denver vs Baltimore vs Miami

Should the Jets win, I think strength of victory would be needed for the Jets in these cases:

Denver vs Jets
Baltimore vs Jets
Denver vs Baltimore vs Jets

Should Pittsburgh beat Miami in the last game (Miami is then out), it is more clear cut. Pittsburgh beat Tennessee and Denver but would lose a divisional tiebreaker to Baltimore should Baltimore be 9-7. Actually the team Pittsburgh doesn't want to see 9-7 (other than Jacksonville who I think is unlikely to be 9-7) is the Jets. Pittsburgh 
;whould win a tiebreaker over Denver and/or Tennessee. Even if Baltimore is involved, the Ravens would win a tiebreaker over Denver (H2H) and/or Tennessee (conf record), then Pittsburgh would be the #6. But add the Jets and you throw out the head to heads for the Steelers and Pittsburgh's conference record hurts their chances. Their best chance with the Jets would be if Baltimore loses to Oakland and the Jets win the strength of victory over Denver (then Pittsburgh beats Denver for the #6).



 




Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 21, 2009 10:14 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC SCENARIOS


Mia loss or tie (vs. Hou) or (vs. Pit) + (1), (2), or (3).
I forgot to add (4) and (5)! It should read....


Mia loss or tie (vs. Hou) or (vs. Pit) + (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5).



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 21, 2009 10:06 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC SCENARIOS

how can the jets win the wild card, and if they tie with the ravens, who gets the tiebreaker?  Its interesting because the ravens and jets both have 2 in conference games remaining and can tie in that catagory of the wild-card tiebreaker Go Orange (and other Jets fans),

The Jets would be in pretty good position at 9-7 if they can make it out of the East. For that to happen they would need Miami to lose or tie at least one (vs. Hou) or (vs. Pit).

Miami has 2 head-to-head wins vs. the Jets. Also, If NYJ, Mia and NE all finish 9-7, Mia wins the division and NE would then eliminate a 9-7 Jets team based on division record.

Once out of the East, the Jets would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to Jacksonville. So they would need Jacksonville to lose or tie at least one (at NE) or (at Cle) in order to finish ahead of them.

But, the Jets hold 2-way tie-breakers over all the other 9-7 teams and both 8-6 teams. They also hold all multiple team tie-breakers that don't involve Jacksonville, except for one; NYJ-Pit-Den where Den loses (at Phi) and wins (vs. KC) to pull even in conference record.

For this NYJ-Pit-Den tie to happen though, Bal has to finish 8-8 or 8-7-1, (If Bal is 9-7, they knock out a 9-7 Pit, then the Jets win the NYJ-Bal-Den tie-breaker. If Bal is better than 9-7, they'll have beaten or tied Pit next week, preventing Pit from reaching 9-7).

Even if the NYJ-Pit-Den tie happens, it comes down to S.o.V. in which case NYJ could still end up with the best S.o.V. Additionally, if they finish with the 2nd or 3rd best S.o.V., the Jets would get the 2nd Wild Card (based on 2-way tie-breaker with Pit or Den) -that is if Jacksonville doesn't get the 1st Wild Card. Baltimore could not get the 1st Wild Card, because if Pittsburgh finishes 9-7, they have to beat Baltimore next week.

So even this unlikely 3-way tie, if it were to happen, might not keep the Jets out of the playoffs.

Jacksonville holds the 2-way tie-breakers over Ten and Hou and the 3-way tie-breaker in a Jac-Ten-Hou tie. This doesn't help the Jets since it means neither Ten or Hou can eliminate a 9-7 Jacksonville.

Baltimore holds the 2-way tie-breaker over Pit. This is good for the Jets because the Jets win the NYJ-Bal-Den tiebreaker but may not win the NYJ-Pit-Den tie-breaker.

I think you can figure out everything else from here. But if you or anyone else is interested, here are all the tie-breakers in more detail, including the NYJ-Pit-Den tiebreaker. At the bottom are clinching scenarios for a 9-7 Jets.



AFC South information pertinent to the Jets .
- The Jets could not leap over Jacksonville in a 3 or 4 team tie. Jacksonville would have a better conference record than any other 9-7 team. Also, Jacksonville's only head-to-head loss is against Miami, so Jacksonville cannot be swept in any 3 or 4 team tie.

Additionally, Jacksonville owns the head-to-head tie-breaker over Houston and owns the division record tie-breaker over Tennessee. As well, Jacksonville would win the 3-way tie-breaker between Jac-Hou-Ten based on record in all head-to-head games. This is important to the Jets because it means that a 9-7 Houston or 9-7 Tennessee can't eliminate a 9-7 Jacksonville.

The Jets have a head-to-head win over Houston and a better conference record than Tennessee. As well, neither of these teams could leap over the Jets in a 3 or 4 way tie because the Jets have a better conference record than both of them. For these reasons, the Jets need not worry about either Houston or Tennessee.


AFC North and AFC West information pertinent to the Jets
:

The Jets win the common games tie-breaker with Baltimore , but they need Baltimore to lose one (at Pit) or (at Oak) to finish tied with them.

The Jets win the common games tie-breaker with Denver, but they need Denver to lose one (at Phi) or (vs. KC) to finish tied with them.
- If Den loses to KC, then the Jets would have a better conference record.
- Den could leap over NYJ in a NYJ-Pit-Den tie that comes down to S.o.V.

The Jets would win the 3-team common games tie-breaker with Baltimore and Denver.
- If Den loses to KC, then Denver would drop out based on conference record before it got to common games.
- If the NYJ-Bal-Den tie happens, then the Jets would not need Jacksonville to lose or tie one (at NE) or at (Cle).

The Jets would win the common games tie-breaker with Pittsburgh.
-Pit could leap over NYJ in a NYJ-Pit-Den tie that comes down to S.o.V.

In a 3-way tie between the Jets, Pittsburgh, and Denver :
-If Den loses to KC, then Denver would drop out based on conference record, and the Jets win the 2-way tie-breaker with Pit based on common games.
- In this case it doesn't matter about Jacksonville. If Jacksonville is 9-7, Jacksonville gets the 1st Wild Card and the Jets get the 2nd.
-If Den beats KC (and loses at Phi), then the 3-way tie comes down to S.o.V. (the common games step is not applicable).
- If Pittsburgh has a better S.o.V. than both the Jets and Denver, Pittsburgh would leap over the Jets. This is the one case where Pittsburgh (in tandem with Jacksonville) would knock out the Jets.
-Pittsburgh could not knock out the Jets in tandem with Baltimore. If Baltimore were 10-6, it means they would have beaten Pittsburgh in week 16 preventing Pittsburgh from getting to 9-7. Likewise, if Bal ties Pit.

- If Baltimore were 9-7, Baltimore would first win the division record tie-breaker over Pittsburgh, then the Jets would win the 3-team common games tie-breaker between NYJ-Bal-Den (or Denver could drop out before it gets to common games).
- If Denver has a better S.o.V. than both the Jets and Pittsburgh, Denver would leap over the Jets. Also in this case, Denver (in tandem wiith Jacksonville) would prevent the Jets from getting the 2nd Wild Card.

-Of course Baltimore and Jacksonville together could knock out the Jets. But, in this case, there couldn't be the NYJ-Pit-Den tie. Jacksonville would have to finish at 9-7 and Baltimore would have to finish better than 9-7.

- If Jacksonville loses or ties one (at NE) or (at Cle), the Jets are guaranteed to at least get the 2nd Wild Card in this 3-way tie.
- NYJ own 2-way tiebreakers over both Pittsburgh and Denver.
- IF Baltimore finishes at 9-7, the Jets get the 1st Wild Card before Pittsburgh comes into the picture.
- If Baltimore finishes better than 9-7, Pittsburgh drops out due to game vs. Baltimore, and the Jets get the 2nd Wild Card behind Baltimore.
At some point this week (maybe tomorrow), I might have the energy to figure out the current S.o.V. situation.



Clinching scenarios for the Jets at 9-7 :

Mia loss or tie (vs. Hou) or (vs. Pit) + (1), (2), or (3).
1) Jac loss or tie (at NE) or (at Cle) + Bal loss (at Pit) or (at Oak) - or tie in both.

2) Jac loss or tie (at NE) or (at Cle) + Den loss (at Phi) or (vs. KC) - or tie in both.

3) Den loss (vs. KC) + Bal loss (at Pit) or (at Oak) - or tie in both

4) Den loss (at Phi) + Bal loss (at Pit) or (at Oak) + (A), (B), (C), or (D)
A) Pit loss or tie (vs. Bal) or (at Mia)

B) Den loss or tie (vs. KC)

C) Bal win (at Oak)

D) NYJ win NYJ-Pit-Den tie-breaker
  5) Den loss (at Phi) + Bal tie (at Pit) + Bal tie (at Oak)

Explanations
:

(1) If Denver finishes better than 9-7 , NYJ get the 2nd Wild Card. If Denver finishes at 9-7 , the Jets would get the 1st Wild Card, or the 2nd Wild Card if they don't win a potential NYJ-Pit-Den tie. If Denver finishes below 9-7 , the Jets would get the 1st Wild Card.

(2) If Baltimore finshes better than 9-7 , Pittsburgh couldn't reach 9-7 because of their week 16 game vs. Baltimore; The Jets would get the 2nd Wild Card behind Baltimore. If Baltimore finishes 9-7 , the Jets would get the 1st Wild Card. If Baltimore finishes worse than 9-7 , the Jets would get the 1st Wild Card, or the 2nd Wild Card if they don't win a potential NYJ-Pit-Den tie.

(3) Even though a NYJ-Pit-Den tie could still happen here, it would be the one where Denver drops out due to conference record and the Jets win the 2-way tie-breaker vs. Pittsburgh. If Jacksonville finishes 9-7 , the Jets get the 2nd Wild Card behind Jacksonville. If Jacksonville finishes worse than 9-7 , the Jets get the 1st Wild Card.

(4) A Denver loss + a Baltimore loss is not sufficient because if Jacksonville got the 1st Wild Card, the winner of a potential NYJ-Pit-Den tie would get the 2nd Wild Card. (A), (B), and (C) prevent the NYJ-Pit-Den tie from happening. (D) just says that NYJ win the tie-breaker, which depends on S.o.V. records.

The wording with S.o.V. is difficult because NYJ could beat one team in S.o.V. and tie the other, instead of beating both teams. Additionally, if they tie both teams in S.o.V., they could win a Strength of Schedule tie-breaker. But then, the same thing is true with S.o.S. as with S.o.V...and it just keeps going.

5) This is sufficient in itself because it prevents a potential NYJ-Pit-Den tie. It therefore cannot be included in scenario (4).





Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: December 21, 2009 12:40 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC SCENARIOS

Under this scenario, since PIT would have beaten both TEN and DEN, they'd win the tiebreaker on H2H.



Since: Mar 23, 2009
Posted on: December 21, 2009 12:27 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC SCENARIOS

What happens if the Ravens get the 5 seed at 9-7 and the Steelers,Broncos,and Titans all finish 9-7 who would get the 6 seed then?? Would the Steelers get it based on head to head since they beat both of them or would it come down to conference record first before head to head in a 3 way tiebreak??



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 21, 2009 12:27 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC SCENARIOS

Lensova....

Do yourself a favor and disregard ties in elimination scenarios...it usually leads to confusion.  I'm breaking my own rule when I do that (which is to consider all possibilities)...but since we and the NFL don't publish elimination scenarios until week 17 (basically, if you don't clinch, you're eliminated), I first run elims with no ties considered.  Easier for you and easier for others to understand.

Give that a shot...and i'll take a look once done with Official Scenarios for week 16.

Joe



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 21, 2009 12:24 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC SCENARIOS

Young 23_MVP,

If the Steelers, Ravens, and Broncos are all 9-7 and the other teams are 8-8.  Then, as you suggest, the Ravens get the 5th seed.  Beating Pittsburgh in the divisional tiebreaker based on division record.  Then beating the Broncos head-to-head.  Then the Steelers and Broncos would be up for the 6th seed, which the Steelers would get as they won the Head-to-head meeting.



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: December 21, 2009 12:22 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC SCENARIOS

If only DEN, PIT, and BAL finish 9-7 and JAX, NYJ, MIA, HOU, and TEN all finish 8-8 or worse, DEN would drop out due to them losing to both BAL and PIT (technically it's BAL finishing ahead of PIT on division record and then ahead of DEN on H2H and then PIT would win H2H over DEN)



Since: Mar 23, 2009
Posted on: December 21, 2009 12:18 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC SCENARIOS

One more question about the Steelers chances of getting the 6 seed?? If the Ravens finish 9-7 and get the 5 seed in the AFC and the Steelers and Broncos are 9-7 and fighting for the 6 seed does losing the division tiebreaker to the Ravens automatically cancel the Steelers out of getting that number 6 seed even though they beat the Broncos head to head?? Or do they throw that tiebreaker out the window because it's a seperate seed?? If anyone could answer this and clarify this it would be great because Im hearing a ton of different things about this and I dont know which one is exactly right...My main question is assuming the Jags,Jets,Texans,and Miami are all 8-8 can the Steelers still get the number 6 seed if they are 9-7 along with the Ravens and Broncos??



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 21, 2009 12:14 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC SCENARIOS

Allow me to point out the lines of the long since eliminated Cleveland Browns in their WINS.

<col style="width: 48pt;" span="5" width="64"></col> Passing CP/AT YDS TD INT 2-17 23 0 1 6-19 90 0 0 6-17 76 0 2 1-3 9 0 0
I believe these are their three worst passing days of the season.  Under Keys to Victory--Pass for fewer than 100 yards.  Incredible


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com