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WEEK 15 NFC SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 15, 2009 10:46 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC
(LET'S KEEP THIS THREAD TO NFC WEEK 15 SCENARIOS)

  CLINCHED:   New Orleans -- South division and a first-round bye.
              Minnesota -- playoff spot.
  ELIMINATED: Detroit, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington, Chicago.

 NEW ORLEANS Saints
  New Orleans clinches homefield advantage:
   1) NO win + MIN loss or tie
   2) NO tie + MIN loss

 MINNESOTA Vikings
  Minnesota clinches North division:
   1) MIN win
   2) MIN tie + GB loss or tie
   3) GB loss
  Minnesota clinches a first-round bye:
   1) MIN win + PHI loss or tie
   2) MIN tie + GB loss or tie + PHI loss

 ARIZONA Cardinals
  Arizona clinches West division:
    1) ARI win + SF loss or tie
    2) ARI tie + SF loss

 PHILADELPHIA Eagles
  Philadelphia clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PHI win or tie + NYG loss or tie
   2) PHI win + DAL win or tie

 GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) GB win + DAL loss
   2) GB win + NYG loss or tie
   3) GB tie + NYG loss

The GB situation is interesting.  Since GB beat DAL H2H and there is no other team that DAL can use from another division in a three-team tiebreaker, DAL would need to win the East division title to keep GB out.  If DAL loses this week to NO, the potential three-team tie for the division title among PHIL, DAL and NYG could stretch out to strength of victory if PHI win is against DEN.  However, it appears there is no way in that scenario that DAL could finish ahead of NYG, meaning DAL would have no chance to win the division, which means they could not clinch a playoff spot ahead of GB.

 

Comments

Since: Nov 15, 2007
Posted on: January 7, 2010 5:34 pm
 

WEEK 15 NFC SCENARIOS

Minn will win the superbowl



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 21, 2009 8:08 pm
 

WEEK 15 NFC SCENARIOS

Wayne,

I believe Joe's scenarios for GB were correct. I think maybe you missed the post about Dallas not being able to catch the Giants in S.o.V. for the specific 3-way tie where it comes down to S.o.V.

In case you (or other people) want to see a full explanation, I've included one here:


It would take all 3 teams in the East to knock out the Packers. Since the Packers have the head-to-head win against the Cowboys, the only way all 3 teams could knock out the Packers is if the Cowboys were to win the division . The best the Cowboys could have finished, had they lost to the Saints, was 10-6. The worst the Packers could have finished, had they beat the Steelers, was 10-6. Also, the best the Giants could/can do is finish 10-6. Lastly, to give the Cowboys a chance to win the division, the Eagles must also finish 10-6. If the Eagles finish worse than 10-6, they would finish behind a 10-6 Packers.

Since the Giants have to win all their remaining games, and since the Cowboys would have had to win their remaining two games, the only flexibility is in which game (of their three remaining games) the Eagles win. The Eagles play vs. SF, vs. Den, and at Dal. They must lose to the Cowboys though, since the Cowboys have to win that game to reach 10-6. This means there are only three cases to look at.

1) Phi beats SF and loses to Den
2) Phi loses to Den and beats SF
3) Phi ties both teams

The first two scenarios (below), I've copied and pasted from an earlier post. Note that the second scenario has been ammended since the first time it was posted - due to the Cowboys not being able to catch the Giants in Strength of Victory. The third scenario is basically the same as the 1st with one minor tweak to the Eagles's common games record.

As you can see, Dallas does not come out on top in any of the scenarios. Thefore, a GB win + a Dal loss was sufficient for Green Bay clinching a playoff spot.


Easy explanation of Strength of Victory, between Dallas and the Giants :
Of the 10 teams each team beat, SEVEN of them would be the same. Two of the three differences would be the two wins for Dallas vs. Philadelphia, and the two wins for the Giants vs. Dallas. These cancel each other out because Philadelphia and and Dallas would both be 10-6. The only difference then would be Seattle for Dallas, and Minnesota for the Giants. Since Seattle can't finish better than Minnesota, Dallas cannot catch the Giants in S.o.V.

PHI-DAL-NYG:

     a)       IF DAL beats WAS and PHI  AND   PHI beats SF and loses to DEN:

      
;     &nbs
p; 
1-NYG   2-DAL    3-PHI

        
;     &nbs
p; 
        
;     &nbs
p; 
H2H       DIV       CG

      
;     &nbs
p;  
Phi      
;   
2-2      
; 
4-2       6-4

      
;     &nbs
p;  
Dal      
;   
2-2      
; 
4-2       7-3

      
;     &nbs
p;  
NYG        2-2      
; 
4-2       7-3

         
;     &nbs
p;    
(PHI drops out of three-way tie based on common games, 6-4 to  NYG 7-3 and DAL 7-3; NYG-DAL revert to 2-team format, NYG H2H sweep over DAL; DAL is 2 based on H2H sweep over PHI).


       b)       IF DAL beats WAS and PHI  AND   PHI loses to SF and beats DEN:

      
;     &nbs
p;  
1-PHI 2-NYG 3-DAL   OR   1-NYG 2-DAL 3-PHI

      
;     &nbs
p;     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;   
H2H       DIV        CG      CONF

      
;     &nbs
p;  
Phi      
;   
2-2      
; 
4-2      7-3       8-4

      
;     &nbs
p;  
Dal      
;   
2-2      
; 
4-2       7-3      
;
8-4

      
;     &nbs
p;  
NYG        2-2      
; 
4-2       7-3      
;
8-4

      
 
Tiebreaker goes to SOV:

   IF Phi wins SOV: 1-PHI 2-NYG 3-DAL (NYG 2, H2H sweep over DAL)

   IF NYG win SOV: 1-NYG 2-DAL 3-PHI (DAL 2, H2H sweep over PHI)

 (Dal cannot catch NYG in SOV, so Dal cannot win the 3-way SOV tie-breaker.)

 

     c)       IF DAL beats WAS and PHI  AND   PHI ties SF and ties DEN:

      
;     &nbs
p; 
1-NYG   2-DAL    3-PHI

        
;     &nbs
p; 
        
;     &nbs
p;
H2H       DIV       CG

      
;     &nbs
p;  
Phi      
;   
2-2      
; 
4-2       6.5-3.5

      
;     &nbs
p;  
Dal      
;   
2-2      
; 
4-2       7-3

      
;     &nbs
p;  
NYG        2-2      
; 
4-2       7-3

         
;     &nbs
p;    
(PHI drops out of three-way tie based on common games, 6.5-3.5 to  NYG 7-3 and DAL 7-3; NYG-DAL revert to 2-team format, NYG H2H sweep over DAL; DAL is 2 based on H2H sweep over PHI).




Since: Dec 17, 2008
Posted on: December 21, 2009 12:20 pm
 

WEEK 15 NFC SCENARIOS

Joe:

Being a Packer fan, I would like to avoid the SOV(in the east),because in it the Pack lost to the NYG a couple years ago.

DAL would not be eliminated from the East Championship(in your Scenario 1. GB win + DAL loss).

should be GB Win + DAL Loss + PHI win or tie. Because of DAL h2h potential win vs PHI. A PHI win or tie knocks out  NYG as well



Since: Dec 17, 2008
Posted on: December 21, 2009 8:08 am
 

WEEK 15 NFC SCENARIOS

NFC Clinching Scenarios for week 16:
Addition and correction to above scenario with PHI and GB

New Orleans: Clinch HFA
1. NO  W  or  T
2. MIN  L  or  T

MIN clinch 1st round bye
MIN  W or T  or ARZ L or T     &nbs
p;     AND
MIN W  or T  or DAL L or T     &nbs
p;     AND
MIN win and Phi L or T  or  MIN tie and Phi lose

Philadelphia clinch division
1. Phi win + DAL L or T
2. Phi tie + DAL lose

GB clinch wild card
1. GB win and DAL lose and PHI win or tie
2.GB win and NYG lose or tie either this week against WAS or next week(16) against CAR
3. GB tie and NYG lose either this week or next



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: December 21, 2009 1:11 am
 

WEEK 15 NFC SCENARIOS

Good call on the ARI scenario.  I stopped listening to the MIN/CAR game on the radio with the Vikings up 7-6 and had mistakenly written it off as a win.



Since: Dec 17, 2008
Posted on: December 21, 2009 12:52 am
 

WEEK 15 NFC SCENARIOS

NFC Clinching scenarios for week 16:

New Orleans:

Clinch HFA
1. NO W or T
2. MIN L or T

Clinch 1st Round Bye

Minnesota:
1. MN W or T  or ARZ L or  T     AND
    MN W or T  or DAL L or  T     AND
    MN  W and Phi L or T   or  MN Tie and Phi Lose

Clinch Wild Card

Green Bay
1. GB win and Dallas lose
2. GB win and NYG Lose or Tie either this week against WAS or next week(16) against CAR
3. GB tie and NYG Lose either this week or next week 



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 21, 2009 12:30 am
 

WEEK 15 NFC SCENARIOS

,

You are sort of correct.  If they win out, Dallas would have swept Philadelphia and would be the division winner.  Philadelphia would then be the 6th seed.  But yes, other than that, you are correct.



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: December 21, 2009 12:10 am
 

WEEK 15 NFC SCENARIOS

If all three win out, GB and DAL would be 11-5 and NYG would be 10-6, and GB would still get the 5th seed and DAL the 6th seed.



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 21, 2009 12:07 am
 

WEEK 15 NFC SCENARIOS

By my count, the NY GIANTS will win a tie against either DALLAS or GREEN BAY.  So, if they win out, they only need DALLAS or GREEN BAY to lose one game.  Clinching scenarios for both DALLAS and GREEN BAY are

win your game
get NYG to lose (either tomorrow night against WASHINGTON or next week against CAROLINA).  If all three win out, you may have a jumbling of seeds taking place in the final week, but that seems like small drama compared to the AFC.



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: December 21, 2009 12:02 am
 

WEEK 15 NFC SCENARIOS

Let's say ATL wins out to get to 9-7.

If GB, DAL, NYG, and ATL all finish tied at 9-7, ATL would drop out on conference record.  If it's just ATL with either DAL or NYG, they lost to both of them.  Therefore, there is no way they can clinch a playoff berth.


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