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Blog Entry

EARLY WEEK 16 SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 21, 2009 1:51 am
 
Here's prelim look at Week 16 (i'll break this into AFC and NFC for Tuesday if that's the way people want it):

NFC
(Key Games: NYG at WAS Monday night, CAR @ NYG, MIN @ CHI, DAL @ WAS, SEA @ GB, TB @ NO, DEN @ PHI)

  NEW ORLEANS Saints
  New Orleans clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) NO win or tie
   2) MIN loss or tie
  MINNESOTA Vikings
  Minnesota clinches a first-round bye:
   1) MIN win + PHI loss or tie
   2) MIN tie + PHI loss
  PHILADELPHIA Eagles
  Philadelphia clinches East division:
   1) PHI win + DAL loss or tie
   2) PHI tie + DAL loss
  GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
  IF NY Giants BEAT WASHINGTON
   1) GB win + NYG loss or tie
   2) GB win + DAL loss
   3) GB tie + NYG loss
  IF WASHINGTON BEATS NY GIANTS
   1) GB win or tie
   2) NYG loss or tie
  DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches a playoff spot:
  IF NY GIANTS BEAT WASHINGTON
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss
  IF WASHINGTON BEATS NY GIANTS
   1) DAL win or tie
   2) NYG loss or tie
 
 AFC
(Key Games: BAL @ PIT, KC @ CIN, DEN @ PHI, HOU @ MIA, NYJ @ IND, JAC @ NE, SD @ TEN)  

  SAN DIEGO Chargers
  San Diego clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SD win or tie
   2) NE loss or tie
  NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches East division:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) MIA loss or tie
  CINCINNATI Bengals
  Cincinnati clinches North division:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) BAL loss
  Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot:
   1) CIN tie
   2) JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in a tie
  BALTIMORE Ravens
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + DEN loss
   2) BAL win + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss
   3) BAL tie + NYJ loss + JAC loss + TEN loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in tie
  DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + JAC loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie +
       PIT loss or tie

[Note:  I think DEN scenario works with HOU beating MIA because DEN would clinch SOV over HOU in this scenario.  In initial review, I have DEN +12 wins in unduplicated victories and HOU only has ability to gain 9 wins over last two weeks.] 
Comments

Since: Jan 8, 2008
Posted on: December 23, 2009 1:49 pm
 

EARLY WEEK 16 SCENARIOS

Is there any scenario where the Miami Dolphins win the division and the Patriots still make the playoffs?



Since: Dec 3, 2006
Posted on: December 22, 2009 3:05 pm
 

EARLY WEEK 16 SCENARIOS


Bottom line - there is no way NE or CIN can lock up their respective final rankings this week, so there is no way that the Jets game in week 17 will be meaningless to Cincinnati.

Thanks, I guess.  ;-)

Ladies and Gentlemen, the main event - Darrelle Revis v. Ochocinco.



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 22, 2009 12:59 pm
 

EARLY WEEK 16 SCENARIOS

For Common Games between 3 teams...

Only 18.75% of 3-team combinations meet the minimum requirement for common games.

2 of the 3 teams must be from paired divisions and from the same "level" schedulewise.

This year, Baltimore and Denver are from paired divisions and are on the same "level". (AFC North is paired with AFC West this year, and Baltimore and Denver each finished in 2nd place last year so they are on the same "level" schedulewise).

This means that any 3-way Wild Card tie (after all but one team from each division is eliminated) that involves Baltimore and Denver, will meet the minimum requirement for common games.

The only exceptions to the rule would be if Baltimore and Denver are tied with New England or Indianapolis, since New England and Indianapolis also finished in 2nd place last year.



Other possible combinations from this year's AFC playoff picture...

Miami and Tennessee (AFC East and AFC South are paired, and each team finished in 1st place last year.)
NY Jets and Houston (AFC East and AFC South are paired, and each team finished in 3rd place last year.)


Therefore, for the AFC, the following 3-way ties all meet the minimum requirement for common games.

1) Bal-Den-Mia
2) Bal-Den-NYJ
3) Bal-Den-Jac
4) Bal-Den-Hou
5) Bal-Den-Ten (Bal-Den-NE does not work since NE also finished in 2nd place last year)
6) Mia-Ten-Bal
7) Mia-Ten-Den (Mia-Ten-Pit does not work since Pit also finished in 1st place last year)
8) NYJ-Hou-Bal
9) NYJ-Hou-Pit
10) NYJ-Hou-Den
Of these, only the first two are between teams (at 9-7 or 8-8) that could all finish with the same conference record.
-At 8-8, they will all have the same conference records.
-At 9-7, Den has to beat KC (and lose to Phi) in order to be tied with Bal, Mia, and NYJ in conference record.



Breakdown of Common Games for Bal-Den-Mia AND Bal-Den-NYJ

The rule for which opponents are common is the same as the rule for 2 teams (previous post). This is because, for example, Miami's common opponents with Baltimore are the same as Miami's common opponents with Denver . So pick either "Baltimore and Miami" or "Denver and Miami" and apply the 2-team rule. The result is that these 4 common opponents (NE, Ind, Pit, SD) are the same 4 that are common among all 3 teams.


1)  Bal-Den-Mia (if Den beats KC): common opponents are NE, Ind, Pit, SD

A)  At 9-7, if Bal beats Pit. (Mia must beat Pit to reach 9-7.)
- Bal wins (3-2 to 2-3 for both Mia and Den)

B)  At 9-7, if Bal loses to Pit. (Mia must beat Pit to reach 9-7.)
- Bal, Mia, Den all tie (at 2-3).
- Tie-break goes to Strength of Victory.

C)  At 8-8, if Mia beats Pit. (Bal must lose to Pit to fall to 8-8.)
- Bal, Mia, Den all tie (at 2-3).
- Tie-break goes to Strength of Victory.

D)  At 8-8, if Mia loses to Pit. (Bal must lose to Pit to fall to 8-8.)
- Bal and Den tie (at 2-3). Miami drops out (at 1-4).
- Bal wins tie-break based on head-to-head win against Denver.


2) Bal-Den-NYJ (if Den beats KC): common opponents are NE, Ind, Cin, Oak

A)  At 9-7 (NYJ must beat Ind and Cin, and Bal's game at Oak is irrelevent)
- NYJ win (at 4-1). Denver is 3-2, and Baltimore is 1-4 (or 0-5).

B)  At 8-8, (NYJ must win 1 and lose 1 among Ind and Cin. Bal must lose to Oak.)
- NYJ and Den tie (at 3-2). Bal drops out (at 0-5).
- Tie-break goes to S.o.V. between NYJ and Den (no head-to-head game).







Since: Dec 22, 2009
Posted on: December 22, 2009 12:24 pm
 

EARLY WEEK 16 SCENARIOS

After reading just about every post you've made, it looks to me like the only way the Titans get in is for both BAL and DEN to lose out and for JAX and PIT to lose atleast 1 more game. is this correct or is there any other scenerios where the Titans can get in? Thanks for your help!



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 22, 2009 11:30 am
 

EARLY WEEK 16 SCENARIOS


In regards to Common Games between 2 teams...

When there is no head-to-head game involved
, the 4 "common" opponents are always the sum of each team's 2 "non-common" opponents inside their respective divisions.


For example: between San Diego and New England
,

The 2 non-common opponents for New England (when compared to other AFC East teams) are the 2008 2nd place AFC North and AFC West teams (Baltimore and Denver).

The 2 non-common opponents for San Diego (when compared to other AFC West teams) are the 2008 1st place AFC East and AFC South teams (Miami and Tennessee).

Therefore the 4 common oppononets between San Diego and New England are Baltimore, Denver, Miami, and Tennessee.



The 4 common oppononents are always one team from each division. Since teams play other teams in their own division twice, there are always 5 common games. All 5 games count towards the common games record.

When a head-to-head game is involved, for a tie-break between 2 teams to reach "common games", the head-to-head game would have to end tied. So even though the above is only true when no head-to-head game is involved, it will be true nearly 100% of the time "common games" is applied.


-Brett



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 22, 2009 10:58 am
 

EARLY WEEK 16 SCENARIOS

I'm sure most people either noticed my error and could figure out what it was supposed to be, or just didn't notice.

 But in any case...
Of course, the Giants could finish below 10-6. In this case, Dallas would win the the division in a 2-way tie with Phi at 10-6, due to NYG's pair of head-to-head wins against Phi.

 It should say...

"Of course, the Giants could finish below 10-6. In this case, Dallas would win the the division in a 2-way tie with Phi at 10-6, due to Dal's pair of head-to-head wins against Phi."




Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 22, 2009 1:56 am
 

EARLY WEEK 16 SCENARIOS

The San Diego-New England common game tiebreaker works thusly.

San Deigo beat Denver and Miami
They lost to Denver and Baltimore (and would have lost to Tennessee, if they are tied with New England)

New England beat Baltimore, Tennessee, and Miami.
They lost to Denver and Miami.

Hence, New Englad will win a common game tiebreaker with San Diego.



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 22, 2009 1:54 am
 

EARLY WEEK 16 SCENARIOS

New England has 54 SoV wins.  They will get another SoV win based on the Atlanta-Buffalo game (unless it ends in a tie) to put them up to 55. If they beat Jacksonville, they'll be able to add those 7 wins and go to 62.
Cincinnati has 52 SoV wins.  They will get two SoV victories based on the Baltimore-Pittsburg game (unless it ends in a tie) to put them at 54.  If they beat Kansas City, they'll be able to add those 3 wins and go to 57.

Again, if one team wins and the other team loses, these numbers are meaningless, because the tie (if there is one) will be decided based on common opponents.

It Benefits the Patriots with one SoV victory if
  • if Buffalo beats Atlanta
  • if Tennessee beats San Diego
  • if Miami beats Houston*
  • if Baltimore beats Pittsburgh
  • if Tampa Bay beats New Orleans
  • if Carolina beats NY Giants
  • if NY Jets beats Indianapolis**
*-Assuming the Patriots will beat Houston in week 17, they would get a SoV next week if Houston wins
**-Assuming the Bengals will beat the NY Jets in week 17, they would get a SoV for this win also next week

It benefits the Bengals with one SoV victory if
  • if Green Bay beats Seattle
  • if Detroit beats San Francisco
  • if Chicago beats Minnesota
It doubly benefits the Bengals with two SoV victories if
  • if Cleveland beats Oakland

San Diego 70 SoV wins.  If they lose out and BOTH of the other two teams win out, then we may want to keep an eye on these numbers also.  Both teams winning, means the Chargers automatically go to 71, as they beat Cincinnati.  They will get an SoV win based on the Oakland-Cleveland and another based on the Denver-Philadelphia game to elevate them to 73.  And since the only reason we would look at this is if there is a three team tie, we can give New England and Cincinnati the requisite wins in Week 17, so their numbers for those purposes would start with 69 and 64, respectively.

It Benefits the Chargers with one SoV victory if
  • if Dallas beats Washington
  • if Oakland beats Cleveland
  • if Miami beats Houston
  • if NY Giants beat Carolina



Since: Dec 14, 2009
Posted on: December 22, 2009 1:25 am
 

EARLY WEEK 16 SCENARIOS

I thought the common game tiebreaker need a minimum of 4 common games.  Baltimore, Denver, Tennesse and Miami look like the 4 common games.  San Diego Won and Lost to Denver, while New England Lost to Denver.    New England Won and Lost to Miami, while San Diego beat Miami.  Do these games count as common games?   If not, then not enough common games are there for the tiebreaker and it would move to Strength of Victory?  I am in no way saying this is all accurate, just trying to plow through this information to see what others think.  

I am still not understanding the breakdown of why the Chargers have not already clinched the #2 seed.    Thanks for your time.




Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 22, 2009 1:18 am
 

EARLY WEEK 16 SCENARIOS

There have been many questions on the #2 seed in the AFC.  San Diego needs only one win or one loss by New England to guarantee that.  And at least one of those seems likely to happen with two weeks.  BUT, if it doesn't, there is a chance of a three way tie.  They would all have the same record and conference record and with all three, there are not enough common games.  So it would come down to SoV.  Currently, the teams Cincinnati would have beaten would be 62.  New England is at 68.  San Diego at 70.  But obviously, those numbers will change.  So, it seems most likely that San Diego would get the number two seed, even if they lose out, but it isn't yet set in stone.  Now if there is a two way tie between New England and San Diego, New England would win the tie on Common Opponents.  If there is a two way tie between San Diego and Cincinnati, San Diego wins based on a head to head win.  If Cincinnati and New England tie, it depends on what happens to get there.  If they both win the same weeks (either both 16 and 17, just 16, just 17, or neither 16 nor 17-assuming they both still win the division in that scenario), it will go down to the aforementioned SoV, where New England currently holds a small edge.  If one team wins week 16 and the other wins week 17, whoever wins week 17, wins the tie.  If you are looking for which matchups affect the SoV, I'll post that later.


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