Blog Entry

2009 NFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Posted on: December 22, 2009 1:26 am
 
NFC
(Key Week 16 Games: CAR @ NYG, MIN @ CHI, DAL @ WAS, SEA @ GB, TB @ NO, DEN @ PHI)

NEW ORLEANS Saints
  New Orleans clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) NO win or tie
   2) MIN loss or tie
  

MINNESOTA Vikings
  Minnesota clinches a first-round bye:
   1) MIN win + PHI loss or tie
   2) MIN tie + PHI loss
 

PHILADELPHIA Eagles
  Philadelphia clinches East division:
   1) PHI win + DAL loss or tie
   2) PHI tie + DAL loss
 

GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) GB win + NYG loss or tie
   2) GB win + DAL loss
   3) GB tie + NYG loss

DALLAS Cowbo
ys
  Dallas clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss
  
Comments

Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 4:51 pm
 

2009 NFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

If Minnesota wins tonight, there are 4 games that matter next week.  If Minnesota loses, there are three games with meaning in Week 17.  So, that means there are 24 possibilities (assuming no ties) in those games.  So, let's evaluate them.


If Minnesota loses tonight, New Orleans is the #1 seed. 

Then, for looking at next week's games

If Philadelphia wins, they are the #2 seed, Green Bay is the #5 seed, and Dallas is the #6 seed.
  • Then if Minnesota wins, they are the #3 seed and Arizona is the #4 seed.
  • If Minnesota loses and Arizona wins, Arizona is #3 and Minnesota is #4
If Philadelphia loses, it gets a lot more exciting.
  • If Green Bay beats Arizona, Arizona is #4, Green Bay is #5 seed, and Philadelphia is #6
  1. If Minnesota loses, they are the #3 seed and Dallas is the #2 seed
  2. If Minnesota wins, they are the #2 seed and Dallas is the #3
    (setting up two same location repeats in the playoffs the very next week)
  • If Arizona beats Green Bay, Philadelphia is #5 and Green Bay is #6
  1. If Minnesota loses, they are the #4 seed, Dallas is the #3 seed, and Arizona is #2
  2. If Minnesota wins, they are the #2 seed; Arizona is #3, and Dallas is #4
    (setting up two same location repeats in the playoffs the very next week)
So, if Minnesota wins and Philadelphia loses, there will be two same location repeats one week after the regular season.
 


If Minnesota wins tonight, New Orleans has to beat Carolina to preserve the #1 seed. 

Then, for looking at next week's games

If New Orleans wins, they are the #1 seed.  If the Saints lose and Minnesota wins, Minnesota is the #1 seed.  If Minnesota wins (while New Orleans wins), they will be the #2 seed.

Assuming Minnesota wins:

If Philadelphia wins, Philly is the #3 seed, Arizona is the #4, Green Bay is the #5 seed, and Dallas is the #6 seed.
(Two repeats, but one in a new location)

If Philadelphia loses.
  • If Green Bay beats Arizona, Dallas is #3 Arizona is #4, Green Bay is #5 seed, and Philadelphia is #6
    (setting up two same location repeats in the playoffs the very next week)
  • If Arizona beats Green Bay, Arizona is #3, Dallas is #4, Philadelphia is #5 and Green Bay is #6
    (setting up two same location repeats in the playoffs the very next week)
Assuming Minnesota loses:

If Philadelphia wins, Philly is the #2 seed, Minnesota is #3, Arizona is the #4, Green Bay is the #5 seed, and Dallas is the #6 seed.


If Philadelphia loses.
  • If Green Bay beats Arizona, Minnesota is #2, Dallas is #3 Arizona is #4, Green Bay is #5 seed, and Philadelphia is #6
    (setting up two same location repeats in the playoffs the very next week)
  • If Arizona beats Green Bay, Minnesota is #2 Arizona is #3, Dallas is #4, Philadelphia is #5 and Green Bay is #6
    (setting up two same location repeats in the playoffs the very next week)



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 3:51 pm
 

2009 NFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

The NFC is kind of crazy.  Right now, New Orleans is one game up on Minnesota in the loss column (and loses a tie to Minnesota).  Minnesota is one game up in the loss column to Philadelphia and two up on Arizona (and loses ties to both).  Philadelphia is one game up on Dallas (and loses a tie to them).  Arizona is benefitted by Dallas beating Philadelphia.  So, while the 6 teams are set, there is some seeding up for grabs.  With apologies to Lensova, here is a chart like he would make

New Orleans 1, 2 (controls 1)
Minnesota 1,2,3,4 (controls 2)
Philadelphia 2,3,5,6 (controls 3)
Arizona 2,3,4 (controls 4)
Dallas 2,3,4,6 (controls 4)
Green Bay 5, 6 (controls 5)

And to make it great, there are two cross matchups (both could be repeated the following week in the playoffs).

After tonight's game, Minnesota will either find it impossible to get seed #1 or seed #4.  They play the NY Giants next week, who while they have nothing to play for because of their own crap layout against Carolina, may be playing to prove that they are a decent team.  But either way, Minnesota will be playing for something.





Since: Dec 15, 2009
Posted on: December 28, 2009 11:41 am
 

2009 NFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

@ Captainbanzai

Minnesota would win the tiebreaker with New Orleans at 13-3 and the Vikings would be #1 with homefield and Saints #2.

They havn't played each other so there is no head-to-head tiebreaker and it goes to conference record.  Saints would be 9-3, with all of their losses against the NFC.  The vikings would be 10-2 in the NFC, since one of their losses was against Pittsburgh.



Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: December 28, 2009 10:48 am
 

2009 NFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Now that the New Orleans Saints have lost in week 16 and face a recently improved Carolina Panthers in week 17 (another probable loss,) what happens if the Minnesota Vikings win week 16 & 17 (very probable)?  How is the top seed determined in this scenerio?  Who gets home field advantage?



Since: Dec 17, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 10:40 am
 

2009 NFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

jmmj05:

Green Bay can also clinch #5 if GB beats ARZ and PhI loses to DAL

Both GB and Phi will have a 9-3 conference record

Common Games

GB     4-1 (beat Chi twice,Dal,SF)(lost to TB)
Phi    3-2 (Beat TB,Chi,SF(with loss to Dal in week 17 will have 2 losses vs DAL)



Since: Dec 2, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 2:23 am
 

2009 NFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

sorry, what I meant to say was if MIN clinches a 1st round bye, the first round matchups are set.



Since: Dec 2, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 2:21 am
 

2009 NFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

if MIN wins this week or next




Since: Dec 2, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 2:18 am
 

2009 NFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Also, barring ties, the first round playoff matchups are set.

Green Bay at Arizona

Philadelphia at Dallas or
Dallas at Philadelphia



Since: Dec 2, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 2:07 am
 

2009 NFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Week 17 Scenarios:

If MIN wins on Monday night:

New Orleans Saints

have clinched at least the #2 seed

clinch HFA with:
-Win/tie
-MIN loss/tie

Minnesota Vikings

have clinched at least the #3 seed

clinch HFA with:
-Win + NO loss

clinch 1st round bye with:
-Win/tie
-PHI loss/tie

Philadelphia Eagles

have clinched at least the #6 seed

clinch 1st round bye with:
-Win + MIN loss

clinch #3 seed with:
-Win/tie

clinch #5 seed with:
-GB loss/tie

Arizona Cardinals

have clinched at least the #4 seed

clinch #3 seed with:
-Win + PHI loss

Green Bay Packers

have clinched at least the #6 seed

clinch #5 seed with:
-Win
-Tie + DAL loss/tie
-DAL loss

Dallas Cowboys

have clinched at least the #6 seed

clinch #3 seed with:
-Win + ARI loss/tie

clinch division with:
-Win

clinch #5 seed with:
-Tie + GB loss

If MIN loses on Monday Night

New Orleans Saints

have clinched HFA

Minnesota Vikings

have clinched at least the #4 seed

clinch 1st round bye with:
-Win + PHI loss/tie
-Tie + PHI loss

clinch #3 seed with:
-Win/tie
-ARI loss/tie

Philadelphia Eagles

have clinched at least the #6 seed

clinch 1st round bye with:
-Win
-Tie + MIN loss/tie

clinch #3 seed with:
-Win/tie

clinch #5 seed with:
-GB loss/tie

Arizona Cardinals

have clinched at least the #4 seed

clinch 1st round bye with:
-Win + MIN loss + PHI loss

clinch #3 seed with:
-Win + PHI loss
-Win + MIN loss

Green Bay Packers

have clinched at least the #6 seed

clinch #5 seed with:
-Win
-Tie + DAL loss/tie
-DAL loss

Dallas Cowboys

have clinched at least the #6 seed

clinch 1st round bye with:
-Win + MIN loss + ARI loss/tie

clinch #3 seed with:
-Win + MIN loss
-Win + ARI loss/tie

clinch division with:
-Win

clinch #5 seed with:
-Tie + GB loss

If anybody sees any mistakes, please correct them.



Since: Dec 31, 2006
Posted on: December 28, 2009 12:14 am
 

2009 NFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

this is for nfc scenarios. please dont post afc stuff here.thanks!


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