Thanks. For some reason I've been consistently screwing up the common games either by just typoing or by counting the wrong games in my spreadsheet. I either had Denver at 2-3 in common games or had the Jets at 4-0 pending next week, both of which are wrong.

I do agree now: Jets are in with a win, done with a defeat.

jpinyan:

Thanks for the info about players playing in the SUPER BOWL will not play in the Pro Bowl

@ jpinyan:

No, at 8-8 the Jets do not win on common games. If PIT wins and DEN, BAL, JAC, HOU, NYJ lose; PIT gets #1; then #2 would be between DEN, BAL, HOU and NYJ at 8-8 (MIA and JAC are 7-9). HOU (or TEN, if they win) would be eliminated due to conference record (6-6 for DEN/BAL/NYJ, 5-7 for HOU or 4-8 for TEN). Next is common games:

Common games are CIN, OAK, IND, and NE; # in parenthesis are the week in which they played.
Denver: W (CIN-1); W (OAK-3); W (NE-5); L (IND-14); L (OAK-15); Total 3-2.
Baltimore: L (NE-4); L (CIN-5); L (CIN-9); L (IND-11); L (OAK-17); Total 0-5.
NY Jets: W (NE-2); W (OAK-7); L (NE-11); W (IND-16); L (CIN-17); Total 3-2.

Both Denver and NY Jets have 3-2 common games in this scenario. At this point, DEN and NYJ would revert to 2 team tiebreaker. No head to head, 6-6 conference, 3-2 common games. Then it would fall to Strength of Victory at this point; Denver would have it clinched under the conditions required in this scenario (namely, 9-7 PIT, 8-8 BAL/DEN/HOU/NYJ/(TEN), 7-9 JAC/MIA/(TEN)).

NYJ        DEN
--------------------------------
HOU    8-8    CIN    11-5
NE       11-5  CLE     4-11-1
TEN     7-8    OAK    6-10
OAK    6-10   DAL    10-5
CAR    7-8     NE      11-5
BUF    6-10    SD      12-3
TB      3-12    NYG    8-7
IND    14-2    KC      4-12
--------------------------------
Tot.    62-63  Tot.    66-58-1
GR      3        GR      3

Awful formatting aside...

This is the absolute minimum possible SoV for this scenario to be true (GR=games remaining that would affect SoV). At best, NYJ would be 65-63; at worst, DEN would be 66-61-1; therefore, DEN has clinched SoV (and #6 wild card) under the requirements of a 4 way 8-8 tie.

Aside: If you're wondering why the CLE game has a tie, I was attempting to make the best possible scenario for NYJ, which would be CLE tying JAC instead of just beating JAC. If JAC wins, all this is moot as they would take #6 wild card based on conference record.

jpinyan...check your common games. If the Jets lose to Cincinnati, they'll have losses against Cincinnati and New England.
(For Den-NYJ-Bal: common opponents are NE, Ind, Oak, Cin.)
At 9-7 each, NYJ 4-1, Den 3-2, Bal 1-4.
At 8-8 each, NYJ 3-2, Den 3-2, Bal 0-5.

Therefore, at 8-8, Den-NYJ goes to strength of victory, in which Denver wins.

In your scenario, after Bal drops out at the common games step, Den gets the 2nd Wild Card based on SoV over the Jets.

This is consistent with Joe's clinching scenarios. Notice there is no scenario for the Jets clinching with a loss.

I vote for separate as well (again).  And would somebody please silence the "you guys messed up" bunch?

wayne, it's been specifically stated that players in the Super Bowl will not play in the Pro Bowl.

brette, Denver-NY Jets does not go to strength of victory, nor does Denver-NYJ-Baltimore. The Jets win both of those tiebreakers on common games, even at 8-8. They'd be 4-1, Denver 3-2, and Baltimore 0-5. Thus if Pittsburgh beats Miami but all the other 8-7 teams and JAX lose, Pittsburgh is the first wild card (9-7), and the 8-8 teams are NY Jets | Baltimore | Houston (maybe TEN) | Denver. Houston or Tennessee would drop out on conference, then the Jets beat BAL and DEN on common games.

Bretteis:

Also take this years PRO BOWL which will be played before the SUPER BOWL

Will the stars who will be playing in the SUPER BOWL want to be played or sit on the bench. As an injury to a star can greatly affect the result of the SUPER BOWL

Bretteis:

in the 2007 NE finished the regular season 16-0. They also lost SUPER BOWL 42 to the New York Giants 17-14. All a team can do is share the season record at 16-0. If any team decides to rest their players in the last weeks. SO BE IT
The teams who playoff hopes depend on a team using their stars.  Tough they should have won more games before the last weeks games.

These clinching scenarios are exactly the same as Joe's.


Pittsburgh needs:

1) win + NYJ loss + Bal loss + Den loss
2) win + Hou loss + NYJ or Bal loss.


Denver needs:

1) win + Hou win + NYJ or Bal loss
2) win + two losses from NYJ, Bal, and Pit.
3) four losses from NYJ, Bal, Hou, Jac, Pit.

 Hopefully the above lists will help you see these, and also figure out the ones for the other teams.