Blog Entry

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Posted on: December 22, 2009 1:32 am
 
AFC
(Key Week 16 Games: BAL @ PIT, KC @ CIN, DEN @ PHI, HOU @ MIA, NYJ @ IND, JAC @ NE, SD @ TEN)  

SAN DIEGO Chargers
  San Diego clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SD win or tie
   2) NE loss or tie

NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches East division:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) MIA loss or tie
  

CINCINNATI Bengals
  Cincinnati clinches North division:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) BAL loss
  Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot:
   1) CIN tie
   2) JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in a tie
  

BALTIMORE Ravens
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + DEN loss
   2) BAL win + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss
   3) BAL tie + NYJ loss + JAC loss + TEN loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in tie
  

DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + JAC loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie +
       PIT loss or tie
Comments

Since: Oct 21, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 6:30 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Thanks. For some reason I've been consistently screwing up the common games either by just typoing or by counting the wrong games in my spreadsheet. I either had Denver at 2-3 in common games or had the Jets at 4-0 pending next week, both of which are wrong.

I do agree now: Jets are in with a win, done with a defeat.



Since: Dec 17, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 6:11 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

jpinyan:

Thanks for the info about players playing in the SUPER BOWL will not play in the Pro Bowl



Since: Nov 26, 2009
Posted on: December 28, 2009 6:01 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

@ jpinyan:

No, at 8-8 the Jets do not win on common games. If PIT wins and DEN, BAL, JAC, HOU, NYJ lose; PIT gets #1; then #2 would be between DEN, BAL, HOU and NYJ at 8-8 (MIA and JAC are 7-9). HOU (or TEN, if they win) would be eliminated due to conference record (6-6 for DEN/BAL/NYJ, 5-7 for HOU or 4-8 for TEN). Next is common games:

Common games are CIN, OAK, IND, and NE; # in parenthesis are the week in which they played.
Denver: W (CIN-1); W (OAK-3); W (NE-5); L (IND-14); L (OAK-15); Total 3-2.
Baltimore: L (NE-4); L (CIN-5); L (CIN-9); L (IND-11); L (OAK-17); Total 0-5.
NY Jets: W (NE-2); W (OAK-7); L (NE-11); W (IND-16); L (CIN-17); Total 3-2.

Both Denver and NY Jets have 3-2 common games in this scenario. At this point, DEN and NYJ would revert to 2 team tiebreaker. No head to head, 6-6 conference, 3-2 common games. Then it would fall to Strength of Victory at this point; Denver would have it clinched under the conditions required in this scenario (namely, 9-7 PIT, 8-8 BAL/DEN/HOU/NYJ/(TEN), 7-9 JAC/MIA/(TEN)).

NYJ        DEN
--------------------------------
HOU    8-8    CIN    11-5
NE       11-5  CLE     4-11-1
TEN     7-8    OAK    6-10
OAK    6-10   DAL    10-5
CAR    7-8     NE      11-5
BUF    6-10    SD      12-3
TB      3-12    NYG    8-7
IND    14-2    KC      4-12
--------------------------------
Tot.    62-63  Tot.    66-58-1
GR      3        GR      3

Awful formatting aside...

This is the absolute minimum possible SoV for this scenario to be true (GR=games remaining that would affect SoV). At best, NYJ would be 65-63; at worst, DEN would be 66-61-1; therefore, DEN has clinched SoV (and #6 wild card) under the requirements of a 4 way 8-8 tie.

Aside: If you're wondering why the CLE game has a tie, I was attempting to make the best possible scenario for NYJ, which would be CLE tying JAC instead of just beating JAC. If JAC wins, all this is moot as they would take #6 wild card based on conference record.



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 6:01 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

jpinyan...check your common games. If the Jets lose to Cincinnati, they'll have losses against Cincinnati and New England.
(For Den-NYJ-Bal: common opponents are NE, Ind, Oak, Cin.)
At 9-7 each, NYJ 4-1, Den 3-2, Bal 1-4.
At 8-8 each, NYJ 3-2, Den 3-2, Bal 0-5.

Therefore, at 8-8, Den-NYJ goes to strength of victory, in which Denver wins.

In your scenario, after Bal drops out at the common games step, Den gets the 2nd Wild Card based on SoV over the Jets.

This is consistent with Joe's clinching scenarios. Notice there is no scenario for the Jets clinching with a loss.







Since: Dec 1, 2009
Posted on: December 28, 2009 5:13 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

I vote for separate as well (again).  And would somebody please silence the "you guys messed up" bunch?



Since: Oct 21, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 4:33 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

wayne, it's been specifically stated that players in the Super Bowl will not play in the Pro Bowl.



Since: Oct 21, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 4:32 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

brette, Denver-NY Jets does not go to strength of victory, nor does Denver-NYJ-Baltimore. The Jets win both of those tiebreakers on common games, even at 8-8. They'd be 4-1, Denver 3-2, and Baltimore 0-5. Thus if Pittsburgh beats Miami but all the other 8-7 teams and JAX lose, Pittsburgh is the first wild card (9-7), and the 8-8 teams are NY Jets | Baltimore | Houston (maybe TEN) | Denver. Houston or Tennessee would drop out on conference, then the Jets beat BAL and DEN on common games.



Since: Dec 17, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 4:15 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Bretteis:

Also take this years PRO BOWL which will be played before the SUPER BOWL

Will the stars who will be playing in the SUPER BOWL want to be played or sit on the bench. As an injury to a star can greatly affect the result of the SUPER BOWL



Since: Dec 17, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 4:02 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Bretteis:

in the 2007 NE finished the regular season 16-0. They also lost SUPER BOWL 42 to the New York Giants 17-14. All a team can do is share the season record at 16-0. If any team decides to rest their players in the last weeks. SO BE IT
The teams who playoff hopes depend on a team using their stars.  Tough they should have won more games before the last weeks games.



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 3:58 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17


These clinching scenarios are exactly the same as Joe's.


Pittsburgh
needs:

1) win + NYJ loss + Bal loss + Den loss
2) win + Hou loss + NYJ or Bal loss.


Denver needs:

1) win + Hou win + NYJ or Bal loss
2) win + two losses from NYJ, Bal, and Pit.
3) four losses from NYJ, Bal, Hou, Jac, Pit.

 Hopefully the above lists will help you see these, and also figure out the ones for the other teams.


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