Blog Entry

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Posted on: December 22, 2009 1:32 am
 
AFC
(Key Week 16 Games: BAL @ PIT, KC @ CIN, DEN @ PHI, HOU @ MIA, NYJ @ IND, JAC @ NE, SD @ TEN)  

SAN DIEGO Chargers
  San Diego clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SD win or tie
   2) NE loss or tie

NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches East division:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) MIA loss or tie
  

CINCINNATI Bengals
  Cincinnati clinches North division:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) BAL loss
  Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot:
   1) CIN tie
   2) JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in a tie
  

BALTIMORE Ravens
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + DEN loss
   2) BAL win + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss
   3) BAL tie + NYJ loss + JAC loss + TEN loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in tie
  

DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + JAC loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie +
       PIT loss or tie
Comments

Since: Dec 3, 2008
Posted on: December 27, 2009 5:56 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

A 3 way tiebreaker between those teams puts Denver in the playoffs based on conference record.
I'm not positive that this is 100%, but I think this is Miami's early scenario next week:
1 - Houston loss (New England)
2 - At least 1 Jets loss (Indianapolis, Cincinnati)
3 - Baltimore loss (@Oakland) Plus SOV needs to fall their way
4 - Denver 2 losses (@ Philadelphia, Kansas City) Plus SOV needs to fall their way
5 - Jacksonville loss (@Cleveland)

There is a rule that states that only 1 team from each division can be in a tiebreaker outside the division (ex: no 3 way between Houston, Jacksonville, Miami). The Houston, Baltimore and 1 Jets loss put them all at best 8-8. The Jets are irrelevant since they lose the H2H tiebreaker with Miami. Jacksonville at 7-9 is a non-factor too. Baltimore's superior divisional record eliminates Pittsburgh on the 8-8 tie. 

So you've got Baltimore, Houston and Miami (possibly Denver too, but they have to lose out) all at 8-8. Houston immediately drops out based on conference record (5-7 to 6-6 for the other 2/3). Then you've got a 3-way tie with all common games tied 2-3 (common teams are Indy, San Diego, Pittsburgh and New England) so it goes to SOV where Denver is first by a good bit and Miami is 2nd with a slight edge over Baltimore with the potential to grab a bunch more wins with a victory over Pittsburgh.

Right?  Wrong?  I did this kinda fast



Since: Dec 17, 2008
Posted on: December 27, 2009 5:55 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Joe:
for the final week are you going to have a new blog combining both AFC and NFC scenarios. in the AFC scenarios there are over 100 comments most of which will no longer be valid for week 17



Since: Dec 20, 2009
Posted on: December 27, 2009 5:54 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

this would be a 4 way tie with baltimore, pittsburgh is eliminated first in any tie involving baltimore...
the real question wil be how does a den-hou-bal-nyj tie breaker at 9-7 shake outhou goes out firstbut then i think it gets down to sov



Since: Dec 27, 2009
Posted on: December 27, 2009 5:45 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

If Denver loses to Philly to fall to 8-7, does the three-way tiebreaker with Denver, Pittsburgh, and Houston have precedence over Denver and Pittsburgh head to head? 



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 27, 2009 5:41 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Hey Muttley...

I have FOUR GAME lead for NE....FIVE if Jets win.   If Jets lose...that could help NE in long run if both teams win next week as that would give NE one additional game with win over HOU while CIN would be beating 7 win Jets.




Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 27, 2009 5:38 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

If SoS ends in a tie, then it goes to point differential tiebreakers.  NE has 400 points for and 253 points against.  CIN has 305 points for and 251 points against.
Rosy,

Rememebr that the point diferential is no longer simply net points, but rather relative ranking of conference points for and against.



Since: Dec 25, 2009
Posted on: December 27, 2009 5:32 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

I think I figured out how CIN can beat NE for the 3 seed even after tying SoV.
NE has clinched at least a tie for SoS.  Both teams currently have four unique losses.  Of those four losses, NE currently leads 41-36.  It can end 41-41 if all of the following happen:

Week 16:
IND beats NYJ
MIN beats CHI

Week 17:
CIN beats NYJ
CAR beats NO
BUF beats IND
MIA beats PIT
OAK beats BAL
SD beats WAS
MIN beats NYG

After that, both CIN and NE must finish 10-6.  NE has clinched the SoS tiebreaker at 11-5 and at 10-5-1, since a win or tie vs. Houston would result in 0.5 or 1.0 fewer win for CIN's opponents.

If SoS ends in a tie, then it goes to point differential tiebreakers.  NE has 400 points for and 253 points against.  CIN has 305 points for and 251 points against.

Wow.

That is one far-fetched scenario.

I recommend no Bengal fan takes it seriously.



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 27, 2009 5:31 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Brett, Lensova may have brought it to your attention, but you perfected it, my friend.

As of right now, Denver and the NY Jets control their own destiny to get the wildcards, but they are both in games where they are trailing and are probably both pretty significant underdogs.  If the Denver or NY Jets lose, Baltimore goes back to controlling their destiny.  If both lose, I'm not sure anyone controls their own destiny beyond Baltimore.  Pittsburgh has a great SoV, but a lousy Conference Record.  We'll flesh that out as the week wears on, but I think everyone except Baltimore may need help in that situation.



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 27, 2009 5:30 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Matt....looks right except i think you added "Green Bay beats Arizona" to Patriots benefit erroneously.

Looks like MIA vs PIT is a biggie for CIN and NE as that will be a 3 win swing depending on who wins (If MIA wins...NE gains 1 win....If PIT wins...CIN gains 2 wins).



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 27, 2009 5:20 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

(Brett's double tie (SoV) scenario is now impossible, so we can use just raw numbers). I may have studied it the most, but I give Lensova credit for bringing attention to it before anyone else. - not sure if anyone actually wants credit for this one!




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