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2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Posted on: December 22, 2009 1:32 am
 
AFC
(Key Week 16 Games: BAL @ PIT, KC @ CIN, DEN @ PHI, HOU @ MIA, NYJ @ IND, JAC @ NE, SD @ TEN)  

SAN DIEGO Chargers
  San Diego clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SD win or tie
   2) NE loss or tie

NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches East division:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) MIA loss or tie
  

CINCINNATI Bengals
  Cincinnati clinches North division:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) BAL loss
  Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot:
   1) CIN tie
   2) JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in a tie
  

BALTIMORE Ravens
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + DEN loss
   2) BAL win + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss
   3) BAL tie + NYJ loss + JAC loss + TEN loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in tie
  

DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + JAC loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie +
       PIT loss or tie
Comments

Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 22, 2009 10:21 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

mejado:

For MIA to make the playoffs, realistically, they need to win out (there is a scenario where they get in with a loss, but it is far-fetched).

If MIA wins out, then we must consider the following:
- NYJ means nothing due to MIA's H2H sweep
- MIA will have beaten HOU in week 16, so HOU is meaningless, as they max out at 8-8
- MIA will have beaten PIT in week 17, so PIT is meaningless, as they max out at 8-8
- TEN beat HOU
- MIA beat JAC
- If NE loses out and MIA wins out, MIA wins the division
- JAC will be 8-4 in conference if they finish 9-7
- DEN will be either 6-6 or 7-5 in conference if they finish 9-7
- BAL will be 7-5 in conference if they finish 9-7- DEN/MIA would be settled by Strength of Victory if DEN loses to PHI and beats KC.  DEN has a significant edge in this
- BAL/MIA would be decided in favor of BAL if BAL beats PIT, and would fall to SoV if BAL beats OAK

Knowing all this, and assuming MIA doesn't win SoV over DEN or BAL, we can say the following:
- MIA must finish ahead of DEN and BAL
- MIA will beat JAC in a 2-way tie, but will lose to JAC in a 3-way tie due to conference record
- MIA will lose to TEN in a 2-way tie, but will beat TEN in a 3-way tie due to conference record

Since the above covers the 5 and 6 seed, MIA could miss out on one of its needs and still make the playoffs at #6.

Therefore, for MIA to make the playoffs realistically, they need to win out and have one of the following happen:

1) NE lose out
2) Both DEN and BAL lose out
3) DEN loses out + JAC loses at least 1 game + TEN loses at least 1 game
4) BAL loses out + JAC loses at least 1 game + TEN loses at least 1 game
5) DEN loses out + BAL wins out + JAC wins out
6) BAL loses out + DEN wins out + JAC wins out



Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 22, 2009 10:02 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

tarheels:

CIN at 9-7 is hamstrung by the fact that they will have lost to HOU, DEN, and NYJ.  They will not have beaten a team that is in the wildcard hunt, and with a 6-6 conference record, they will not win a tiebreak against MIA or JAC due to conference record.  They would finish ahead of TEN with conference record.  They are guaranteed to finish ahead of PIT in the division, so PIT is meaningless.

Therefore, for CIN to lose out and still make the playoffs as a wildcard (meaning BAL wins out), all but one of the following must occur (ignoring ties):

1) DEN loses out
2) NYJ loses to IND this week
3) MIA loses 1 of 2
4) JAC loses 1 of 2
5) HOU loses 1 of 2 OR TEN wins out
The reason all but one has to happen is because CIN is alive for both the 5th and 6th seeds, and so if all of the above happen, CIN gets the #5 seed.  If all but one of the above happens, then CIN gets the #6 seed.



Since: Aug 18, 2009
Posted on: December 22, 2009 9:16 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

What would have to happen overall for the DOLPHINS to make it to the playoffs?????


PLEASE ANSWER




Since: Mar 21, 2008
Posted on: December 22, 2009 8:55 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

As a Bengals fan I probably shouldn't even be thinking this, BUT what happens IF they lose the next 2 and the Ravens win the next 2.  At 9-7 with losses to KC & NYJ to finish, what other events would keep them IN the playoffs?

Thanks.

Steve



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 22, 2009 5:05 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

I was prognosticating how things might turn out (dangerous, especially in a forum like this).  But basically, I came down with this scenario.  Denver, Baltimore, Miami, and Tennessee all end 9-7 with other teams finishing 8-8 or 7-9.  The tiebreaker, as I understand it, would eliminate Tennessee based on conference record.  Then, they are all 2-3 against San Diego, New England, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh.  So, it would boil down to SoV.  And, I have it coming down to Denver and Miami, with Baltimore probably not being able to catch either of them.  If Denver wins, they get the 5 seed and Miami gets the 6.  But, if Miami wins, then Baltimore would beat Denver based on the head-to-head tiebreaker.  SO, this is a very important SoV calculation (not that seeding itself isn't important, but when one team gets in based on another team's SoV, that's pretty cool stuff).  And while these picks are probably way off and my calculations might be off, it lead me to this question.  Have we ever had a situation where all eyes turn to a game like Cincinnati-NY Jets, not because it is inherently holding anything, but rather because it carries with it a 3-game SoV swing between Denver and Miami?  Has there ever been a situation like this?  It would be weird to see two teams who may have little or nothing to play for themselves determining the fate of Baltimore, Denver, and, to a lesser extent, Miami.  Wouldn't it?



Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 22, 2009 3:46 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Sorry everyone for the double post.  Either cbs or my computer was messing up, and my first elimination post didn't show up after I posted it, so I resubmitted the post.



Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 22, 2009 3:31 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

I posted these in some older threads, but think that they fit here as well.  On my initial analysis, these are the elimination scenarios I have come up with for the AFC teams.  I have reasonable confidence in the correctness of the scenarios I am posting.  However, I cannot guarantee that they are exhaustive.  I am still analyzing them to see if I can find any more.  If anyone finds any errors or additions, please let me know (with detailed explanation as to why it is an error, or why the addition is an elimination scenario).

HOU is eliminated with:
1) HOU loss
2) HOU tie + DEN win or tie
3) BAL win + DEN win

TEN is eliminated with:
1) TEN loss
2) TEN tie + DEN win or tie + BAL win or tie
3) TEN tie + MIA win
4) BAL win + DEN win

JAC is eliminated with:
1) JAC loss + DEN win or tie + BAL win or tie
2) JAC loss + DEN win or tie + MIA win or tie
3) JAC tie + DEN win + BAL win

PIT is eliminated with:
1) PIT loss + DEN win or tie
2) PIT loss + JAC win
3) PIT loss + HOU win + NYJ win
4) PIT tie + DEN win

NYJ is eliminated with:
1) NYJ loss + BAL win or tie
2) NYJ loss + MIA win or tie
3) NYJ loss + JAC win
4) NYJ tie + DEN win + BAL win
5) NYJ tie + DEN win + MIA win

MIA is eliminated with:
1) MIA loss + BAL win or tie + DEN win or tie
2) MIA loss + BAL win or tie + DEN clinches SoV over MIA (this is possible this week)
3) MIA loss + JAC win + BAL win or tie
4) MIA loss + JAC win + DEN win or tie
5) MIA loss + JAC win + DEN clinches SoV over MIA
6) MIA tie + BAL win or tie + DEN win



Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 22, 2009 3:28 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

I have posted these in older threads, but it seems like this would be a good place to post them as well.  On my initial analysis, these are the elimination scenarios I have come up with for the AFC teams.  I am reasonably confident that the scenarios listed here are correct, but I cannot confirm that they are comprehensive.  If anyone can find any errors or can add any more scenarios, that would be much appreciated.  As always, I would appreciate thorough proof of incorrectness if found (i.e. "even if this happens, this can happen which would give the team a playoff spot").  With that preface, here is what I perceive to be the AFC elimination scenarios.

HOU is eliminated with:
1) HOU loss
2) HOU tie + DEN win or tie
3) BAL win + DEN win

TEN is eliminated with:
1) TEN loss
2) TEN tie + DEN win or tie + BAL win or tie
3) TEN tie + MIA win
4) BAL win + DEN win

JAC is eliminated with:
1) JAC loss + DEN win or tie + BAL win or tie
2) JAC loss + DEN win or tie + MIA win or tie
3) JAC tie + DEN win + BAL win

PIT is eliminated with:
1) PIT loss + DEN win or tie
2) PIT loss + JAC win
3) PIT loss + HOU win + NYJ win
4) PIT tie + DEN win

NYJ is eliminated with:
1) NYJ loss + BAL win or tie
2) NYJ loss + MIA win or tie
3) NYJ loss + JAC win
4) NYJ tie + DEN win + BAL win
5) NYJ tie + DEN win + MIA win

MIA is eliminated with:
1) MIA loss + BAL win or tie + DEN win or tie
2) MIA loss + BAL win or tie + DEN clinches SoV over MIA
3) MIA loss + JAC win + BAL win or tie
4) MIA loss + JAC win + DEN win or tie
5) MIA loss + JAC win + DEN clinches SoV over MIA
6) MIA tie + BAL win or tie + DEN win



Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 22, 2009 3:18 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

This is the list of the possible seeds that each team could possibly end up with as of the end of Week 15, with "E" meaning that elimination is still possible.  If a team controls a seed, that is also noted.  Teams that have already been eliminated are not mentioned.

AFC East:
NE: 2-6,E (controls #4)
MIA: 3-6,E
NYJ: 5,6,E

AFC North:
CIN: 2-6,E (controls #4)
BAL: 3-6,E (controls #5)
PIT: 5,6,E

AFC South:
IND: 1 (clinched #1)
JAC: 5,6,E
TEN: 5,6,E
HOU: 5,6,E

AFC West:
SD: 2-4 (controls #2)
DEN: 5,6,E (controls #6)

Notes:
- NE and CIN at 11-5 will fall to SoV.  Though NE has a significant edge, they have not yet clinched this edge.  (My analysis has NE up by 7 games, but with 13 possible games that CIN can gain on NE).  This is why both only control the 4th seed.
- CIN can still get the 2nd seed if SD, CIN, and NE end in a 3-way 11-5 tie.  Under this situation, no sweep is present, all teams are 8-4 in conference, and common games cannot be used.  Thus, the tie is broken with SoV, and though the chance is marginal, it is still possible for CIN to clinch the SoV tiebreaker.
- BAL controls #5 due to the H2H over DEN.  (Since no 3rd team could be involved in a 10-6 wildcard tie)


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