Blog Entry

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Posted on: December 22, 2009 1:32 am
 
AFC
(Key Week 16 Games: BAL @ PIT, KC @ CIN, DEN @ PHI, HOU @ MIA, NYJ @ IND, JAC @ NE, SD @ TEN)  

SAN DIEGO Chargers
  San Diego clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SD win or tie
   2) NE loss or tie

NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches East division:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) MIA loss or tie
  

CINCINNATI Bengals
  Cincinnati clinches North division:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) BAL loss
  Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot:
   1) CIN tie
   2) JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in a tie
  

BALTIMORE Ravens
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + DEN loss
   2) BAL win + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss
   3) BAL tie + NYJ loss + JAC loss + TEN loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in tie
  

DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + JAC loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie +
       PIT loss or tie
Comments

Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 3:50 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

The following should simplify the AFC playoff picture :
(I've also simplified some of the clinching scenarios at the bottom)

Here is the pecking order in the AFC.
Top 2 make the playoffs! (Tie-breakers are different at 8-8 than at 9-7).

Only the  Houston   game (vs. New England) affects the order.
(If Houston loses, Pit and Den switch places)

If Houston wins       
;   If Houston loses
1) 9-7 NYJ     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;  1) 9-7 NYJ
2) 9-7 Bal     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;    2) 9-7 Bal
3) 9-7 Den     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;  
3) 9-7 Pit
4) 9-7  Hou       
;     &nbs
p;   4) 9-7 Den
5) 9-7 Pit       
;     &nbs
p;     5) 8-8 Jac
6) 8-8 Jac     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     6) 8-8 Den
7) 8-8 Den     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;    7) 8-8 Mia
8) 8-8 Mia

Eliminated:
8-8 NYJ, 8-8 Bal, 8-8 Hou, 8-8 Pit, 8-8 Ten

Pittsburgh   needs:
win + NYJ loss + Bal loss + Den loss... OR... win + Hou loss + NYJ or Bal loss.
Denver needs:win + Hou win + NYJ or Bal loss... OR... two losses from NYJ, Bal, and Pit... OR... four losses from NYJ, Bal, Hou, Jac, Pit.
These are exactly the same as Joe's. Hopefully the above lists will help you see them.
The rest are easy to figure out! Use the lists!



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 3:41 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

From Michael Berger, NFL Network researcher
The Bengals are locked into the #4 seed---UNLESS the Patriots lose to the Texans, and the Bengals beat the Jets, giving Cincinnati the #3 seed due to a better overall record (11-5) than New England (10-6).

This is a relatively safe comment to make....

If tied with New England at 11-5 :
Cincinnati needs 12 of the following 14 to pass NE in Strength of Victory.
(Games in boldface count  double   , games underlined and in boldface count  triple   )

Monday night (tonight):
Chi win (vs. Min)

Week 17:
Pit win (at Mia)   , Bal win (at Oak),  Cle win (vs. Jac)   , KC win (at Den),
GB win (at Ari),  Buf loss (vs. Ind)   , Ten loss (at Sea), Car loss (vs. NO)

If tied with New England at 10-6 :
Cincinnati needs 13 of the following 14 to pass New England in SoV:
(Games in boldface count  double   , games underlined and in boldface count  triple   )
Monday night (tonight):
Chi win (vs. Min)

Week 17:
Pit win (at Mia)   , Bal win (at Oak),  Cle win (vs. Jac)   , KC win (at Den),
GB win (at Ari),  Buf loss (vs. Ind)   , Ten loss (at Sea), Car loss (vs. NO)





Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 3:34 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

In the 8-8 case above, between NYJ and Den, I want to confirm that NYJ cannot catch Den in SoV .

I have the Jets 4 games behind and able to gain 4 games, but the following sequence prevents every game from going the Jets' way..

1) Miami must lose to keep the Jets alive because Miami loses SoV tie-breaker to Denver.
2) Miami loss to Pittsburgh puts Pittsburgh at 9-7, giving them the 1st Wild Card.
3) Jacksonville must therefore lose to keep the 2nd Wild Card spot open.
4) Jacksonville loss to Cleveland is a win for Denver's SoV.

The results of all possible SoV scenarios have now been determined (all 4 are still possible).


8-8 Den-Bal-Mia         8-8 Den-Mia    &nbs
p;      8-8 Mia-Bal    &nbs
p;      8-8 Den-NYJ
    Den wins     &
nbsp;           Den wins     &
nbsp;     
      Mia wins     &
nbsp;     
     Den wins




Since: Mar 21, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 3:31 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Local radio host here in cincy posted this on his blog today - according to everything i've read on here the last 2 weeks the Bengals still have a chance(slight as it is) at the 3 with a tie with NE.

From Michael Berger, NFL Network researcher
The Bengals are locked into the #4 seed---UNLESS the Patriots lose to the Texans, and the Bengals beat the Jets, giving Cincinnati the #3 seed due to a better overall record (11-5) than New England (10-6).



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 3:10 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17


Joe, pleae start a new AFC and a new NFC thread. In the description of the AFC thread, before listing the clinching scenarios, please include: (in my words or your own)

At 8-7 all around,
Denver is currently the #5 seed because of Strength of Victory (SoV) over the Jets and Baltimore.
The Jets are currently the #6 seed because of Strength of Victory (SoV) over Baltimore.

At 9-7 all around,
The Jets   are the #5 seed because of 3-way common games*.
Baltimore is the #6 seed because of their head-to-head win over Denver.

3-way common games kicks in after Bal plays Oak and NYJ play Cin.

The 3-way common opponents between Bal, NYJ, and Den are NE, Ind, Oak, and Cin.
At 9-7 each, NYJ are 4-1, Den is 3-2, Bal is 1-4.
At 8-8 each, NYJ are 3-2, Den is 3-2, Bal is 0-5.




Since: Nov 18, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 1:52 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

JoeNFL wrote (and along the same lines of bretteis6's comments regarding IND):
>> NFL is smart...wanted to make sure the game they picked involved a team that controlled its own destiny.   That should be a good one.  Concern is....does CIN want to lose so they play the JETS in Wild Card weekend?  I'd rather play JETS than BAL or DEN. <<

Aside from trying to figure out who CIN might prefer to play, doesn't this really put (at least) DEN & PIT in a more disadvantageous position than if this game had not been moved?  The NFL & NBC could have just as easily chosen BAL @ OAK for the night game- which I think would have been the more equitable choice - but IMO they went for the bigger ratings (the NY market).

The reason is because by moving CIN @ NYJ out, they give CIN the luxury of knowing the full result of NE @ HOU.  Should NE win, CIN will be locked into the #4 seed and would have no incentive not to rest their starters because at that point CIN is neither interested in an undefeated season nor a first round bye, nor can enhance their chances of hosting the AFC Championship game... at least if CIN were playing at 1 pm ET one could still try to make the argument that CIN would still have something to play for. 

Of course, NE could lose (in fact HOU is favored by 7), but this is irrelevant because that has no effect on the motivational levels of BAL or OAK (OAK's players and coaches are motivated by the very fact they aren't going to the postseason and need to prove that they should keep their jobs for next year) - i.e. there is no probability that the BAL-OAK game will be adversely affected by prior results, where there is a chance that CIN @ NYJ will be.  Additionally, if CIN simply prefers the #4 seed and would therefore lose deliberately without knowing the results of NE-HOU, then it makes even more sense to put BAL-OAK later because that keeps more possibilities open as long as possible.

So that's not just one but TWO games where the Jets are liable to have an unnatural benefit...




Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 1:38 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Dick Duff,


I'll admit, the gambling idea crossed my mind. But, I doubt the decision to rest Manning had anything to do with gambling. If it did though...I would not think Caldwell was trying to make a profit - rather I would think someone inside the Colts organization put pressure on him to rest the players. But let's not go accusing anyone of anything. It's certainly not the WWE.

As far as gamblers getting inside information....
This is something that can happen in all sports. As you mentioned, this is the reason why teams are mandated to list all their injuries.
However, gamblers know that any time an NFL team has clinched it's playoff seed, it is likely they will rest many of their players, especially in the last week of the season as the Colts did in 2007 and 2008.

Most fans are used to this and accept it by now. This week's game, however, it is difficult to accept.

Undefeated season - gone! NFL record 23 wins in a row - stopped at 23! And it's not even the last week of the season! AND at the time of the benching, the Colts were hardly in control of the game! To me, it would have been more acceptable to bench Manning and company if the Colts were comfortably ahead at the time.

It sucks when teams pull their regulars and in doing so affect other team's playoff chances. For this reason, I think the league should explore ways to prevent it from happening.



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 28, 2009 1:34 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Good description brett.




Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 1:10 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Yahoo Sports seems to think that NYJ is eliminated with a loss.  I could have sworn that NYJ could still quailfy with a loss if MIA/BAL/DEN/HOU/JAC lose.  But they say that MIA would beat NYJ in a tiebreaker, which is nonsense because MIA can not tie NYJ if they lose. Even though the Jets and the Ravens control their own destiny, neither can get in at 8-8 (Thanks to  Pittsburgh   playing  Miami ).

The following is how the ties would be broken if the Jets and Ravens are 8-8 (and Houston, Denver, and  Jacksonville   also lose).

If Pittsburgh beats Miami , 
1)  Pittsburgh gets the 1st Wild Card   with 9-7 record.
2) Houston drops out with 5-7 conference record (6-6 for Bal, Den, NYJ).
3)  Baltimore   drops out with 0-5 record in common games (3-2 for Den, NYJ)
4)  Denver wins the 2nd Wild Card   with a better SoV over the Jets.
Denver ties the Jets in common games by the Jets losing to Cincinnati.
Also, in this scenario, the Jets cannot catch Denver in SoV.

If Miami beats Pittsburgh ,
(Division tie-breakers are used to eliminate all but one team from each division.)
1a) Miami eliminates the Jets from the 1st Wild Card with 2 head-to-head wins over the Jets.
1b) Baltimore eliminates Pittsburgh from the 1st Wild Card with 3-3 division record (2-4 for Pit).
2) Houston (or  Tennessee ) drops out with 5-7 (or 4-8) conference record.
Tennessee would have the tie-breaker over Houston with a better division record (2-4 to 1-5).
3) Baltimore, Denver, Miami all tied in 3-way common games (2-3 each).
4)  Denver wins the 1st Wild Card   with a better SoV over Miami and Baltimore.
5) No H2H and 2-way common games tied, (2-3 each),
so Miami wins the 2nd Wild Card   with a better SoV over Baltimore.
At this point, Miami cannot catch Denver in SoV, and Baltimore cannot catch Miami in SoV.

If Jacksonville wins to get to 8-8, Jacksonville wins the division tie-breaker vs. Houston (or vs. both Houston and Tennessee), then Jacksonville wins the 1st Wild Card with a 7-5 conference record (or 2nd Wild Card if Pit is 9-7).

In the South, Jacksonville knocks out Houston from the 1st Wild Card with 2 head-to-head wins over Houston, or they knock out Houston and Tennessee with best record in head-to-head games among the three teams (3-1 for Jac, 2-2 for Ten, 1-3 for Hou).





Since: Dec 15, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 12:02 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

One more fluky tidbit regarding the Broncos:

If the Browns, Steelers, and Patriots win at 1:00, the Broncos' game at 4:15 is meaningless, even though the Broncos would still be alive.  In other words, in that situation, Denver needs Baltimore and the Jets to lose, which would make Denver the 6th seed, which they would be even if they lost to the Chiefs.


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