Blog Entry

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Posted on: December 22, 2009 1:32 am
 
AFC
(Key Week 16 Games: BAL @ PIT, KC @ CIN, DEN @ PHI, HOU @ MIA, NYJ @ IND, JAC @ NE, SD @ TEN)  

SAN DIEGO Chargers
  San Diego clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SD win or tie
   2) NE loss or tie

NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches East division:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) MIA loss or tie
  

CINCINNATI Bengals
  Cincinnati clinches North division:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) BAL loss
  Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot:
   1) CIN tie
   2) JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in a tie
  

BALTIMORE Ravens
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + DEN loss
   2) BAL win + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss
   3) BAL tie + NYJ loss + JAC loss + TEN loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in tie
  

DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + JAC loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie +
       PIT loss or tie
Comments

Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 28, 2009 6:34 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

OKAY boys and girls....here's the AFC as we see it.  We've taken out TIE scenarios for clinching teams and added note at bottom to simplify it a bit and to avoid the important stuff getting lost in the mix.   (BY THE WAY...should we just keep these threads or start a new one with below?)

New thread, please. One for each conference.Smile



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 28, 2009 6:26 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

#2 wildcard would be between Denver, Tennessee, Baltimore, and Miami. No head-to-head sweeps again (only DEN vs. BAL and TEN vs. MIA were played). Go to conference, which eliminates Tennessee (6-6 for DEN/BAL/MIA vs. 4-8 TEN). Reverts to step 1, which still there is no head-to-head sweep among DEN/BAL/MIA, all have 6-6 conference record, all have 2-3 common games record. Next is Strength of Victory, which Denver would win in this scenario.

scot_free,

Just to correct your procedure (if it wasn't done already), in a four-way tie in which one team 'drops out', the remaining 3-team tie does NOT revert to step 1 of the 3-way tiebreaker, it simply continues down the steps. One only reverts to step 1 if TWO teams remain.
Doesn't matter in this particular scenarion, but there would be no checking of head-to-head-sweep or common games between DEN/BAL/MIA and they would proceed directly to SoV.




Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 2:09 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

With regards to the two different SoV analyses for NE-Cin:

The only difference is the Jets win/loss against Cincinnati which affects New England's SoV. New England is currently 4.5 games ahead; therefore a Jets win puts them up by 5 games, while a Jets loss leaves New England ahead by 4 games.

I should add: the reason this is the only difference is because NE's and Cin's Week 17 opponents, Hou and NYJ, are each 8-7. Therefore, if NE and Cin each win, an 8-8 record will be added to each of their respective SoV's.



Since: Oct 21, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 2:01 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

I'll verify your CIN/NE scenarios when I'm awake, but thanks for correcting my MIA/DEN. I was giving Miami credit for 8 wins from Tampa instead of 3, which is why I thought they still had a chance.

So new scenarios for Denver and Miami to qualify are:

Broncos with win and (NYJ loss or BAL loss) and (PIT loss or HOU win) or win and NYJ/BAL loss or PIT loss and (3 out of 4: NYJ/JAX/BAL/HOU losses).
Dolphins with win and NYJ/BAL/HOU/JAX loss.



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 28, 2009 1:58 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Nice work jpinyan on the seeds...i'll take a look soon but cursory look is good.   And Brett...thanks for the confirm on the CIN playing JETS situation.   Weird week...could have CIN-NYJ, GB- ARIZ and DAL-PHIL all REPEATING in their next games.  Wow.

OKAY boys and girls....here's the AFC as we see it.  We've taken out TIE scenarios for clinching teams and added note at bottom to simplify it a bit and to avoid the important stuff getting lost in the mix.   (BY THE WAY...should we just keep these threads or start a new one with below?)

BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win

NEW YORK JETS
  NY Jets clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYJ win

DENVER BRONCOS
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   3) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + HOU win
   4) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   5) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + HOU win
   6) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie
   7) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   8) PIT loss + BAL loss + JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss
   9) PIT loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss
  10) NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

 
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
  Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) PIT win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 HOUSTON TEXANS
  Houston clinches a playoff spot:
   1) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie
   3) HOU win + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
  Jacksonville clinches a playoff spot:
   1) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + HOU loss
   2) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + NYJ loss
   3) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   4) JAC win + PIT loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   5) JAC win + NYJ loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + BAL loss

 MIAMI DOLPHINS
  Miami clinches a playoff spot:
   1) MIA win + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie


 
Baltimore, NY Jets, Denver, Pittsburgh and Houston can also clinch with a tie and various other outcomes occurring.



Since: Dec 27, 2009
Posted on: December 28, 2009 1:58 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Jpinyan,
   The Jets split their H2H with NE, plus wins over OAK and IND, so they should be 3-1 right now.  Denver split their H2H with OAK, beat CIN and NE, but lost to IND, so they're at 3-2.  Baltimore was swept in H2H by CIN, but also lost to NE and IND, so they're at 0-4 right now.  (Correcting Denver line)



Since: Dec 25, 2009
Posted on: December 28, 2009 1:58 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Unbelievable!!!

Two teams control: BAL & NYJ.  They don't play until 4:15 and 8:30-ish.  Every team is eliminated with a loss, except for Denver.  The 1:00 games will be a riot, and they'll be entertaining as at least one teams will live to watch the later games.



Since: Dec 27, 2009
Posted on: December 28, 2009 1:54 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Jpinyan,
   The Jets split their H2H with NE, plus wins over OAK and IND, so they should be 3-1 right now.  Denver split their H2H with OAK, beat CIN and NE, but lost to NE, so they're at 3-2.  Baltimore was swept in H2H by CIN, but also lost to NE and IND, so they're at 0-4 right now. 



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 1:49 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

jpinyan,

The ony thing I've worked on is some of the Strength of Victory (SoV) scenarios.

8-8 Mia-Den
Denver clinched with Dallas win tonight.

8-8 Mia-Bal
Miami clinched following the late afternoon games.

8-8 Mia-Den-Bal
Denver clinched following the early afternoon games.

11-5 NE-Cin
Cincinnati would be down by 4 games thanks to the Jets loss hurting New England's SoV.
There are 14 wins/losses to be decided (One Bal win/loss will be a wash).
Cincinnati would need 11 of the 14 to go in their favor to tie New England.
A tie isn't good enough because New England has already clinched a better SoS.


Therefore, Cincinnati needs 12 of the following 14.
(Games in boldface count double , games underlined and in boldface count triple )

Monday night:
Chi win (vs. Min)

Week 17:
Pit win (at Mia) , Bal win (at Oak), Cle win (vs. Jac) , KC win (at Den),
GB win (at Ari), Buf loss (vs. Ind) , Ten loss (at Sea), Car loss (vs. NO)



10-6 NE-Cin

Cincinnati would be down by 5 games, thanks to Jets win helping New England's SoV.
Cincinnati would need 12 of the 14 to go in their favor to tie New England.
A tie isn't good enough because New England has already clinched a better SoS.


Therefore, Cincinnati needs 13 of the following 14:
(This is correct - in my last post, I factored in 5-10 for Chi instead of 5-9.)

(Games in boldface count double , games underlined and in boldface count triple )

Monday night:
Chi win (vs. Min)

Week 17:
Pit win (at Mia) , Bal win (at Oak), Cle win (vs. Jac) , KC win (at Den),
GB win (at Ari), Buf loss (vs. Ind) , Ten loss (at Sea), Car loss (vs. NO)




Since: Dec 27, 2009
Posted on: December 28, 2009 1:44 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Bretteis6,
   Thanks for the correction.  Slight typo on the SoV records on my part.


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