Blog Entry

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Posted on: December 22, 2009 1:32 am
 
AFC
(Key Week 16 Games: BAL @ PIT, KC @ CIN, DEN @ PHI, HOU @ MIA, NYJ @ IND, JAC @ NE, SD @ TEN)  

SAN DIEGO Chargers
  San Diego clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SD win or tie
   2) NE loss or tie

NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches East division:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) MIA loss or tie
  

CINCINNATI Bengals
  Cincinnati clinches North division:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) BAL loss
  Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot:
   1) CIN tie
   2) JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in a tie
  

BALTIMORE Ravens
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + DEN loss
   2) BAL win + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss
   3) BAL tie + NYJ loss + JAC loss + TEN loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in tie
  

DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + JAC loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie +
       PIT loss or tie
Comments

Since: Oct 21, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 1:41 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

The reason behind the Broncos being listed 5th now is that right now, the three-way tie (BAL/DEN/NYJ) is not resolved on common games, as there are not enough of them right now . Therefore the "if the season ended today" standings go to the next step, strength of victory.

After next weekend, however, there will be enough common games (each team will have 5 from NE/CIN/IND/OAK), and the Jets will have the best record against that group (5-0 if they win, 4-1 if they lose; DEN is 2-3; BAL is 2-3 if they win, 1-4 if they lose). So if all three teams win, the Jets get the 5 on common games, then the Ravens get the 6 on head-to-head (having beaten Denver).



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 1:40 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17


NE's 10 wins:  BUF, ATL, BAL, TEN, TB, MIA, NYJ, CAR, BUF, and JAX.  Those team's combined record for NE are 64-85.  CIN's 10 wins: GB, PIT, CLE, BAL, CHI, BAL, PIT, CLE, DET, KC.  Those team's combined record for CIN are 60-88.  NE currently has a 3 1/2 game lead over CIN in SoV, with Chicago's game to be determined Monday
Cincinnati's SoV is sitting at 60-89. New England's SoV is sitting at 65-85. Thus, currently NE has a 4 1/2 game lead.

Each SoV should have (10 wins)(15 games per team) = 150 games.

The reason Cincinnati's SoV currently has 149 games is because one of the teams they beat is Chicago, who doesn't play their 15th game until tomorrow night.



Since: Dec 27, 2009
Posted on: December 28, 2009 1:40 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Ducksfan93,
   The strength of victory tiebreaker is only in effect right now, since Denver, Baltimore, and the N.Y. Jets currently have not played four common opponents.  Once Baltimore plays Oakland and N.Y. Jets play Cincinnati next week, the common opponents tiebreaker will take precedence over the strength of victory, with the completion of games against four common opponents (NE, IND, CIN, OAK).  Against those four opponents, NYJ is 3-1 (with CIN pending), DEN 3-2, and BAL 0-4 (with OAK pending).



Since: Dec 27, 2009
Posted on: December 28, 2009 1:33 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

SabreMax1982,
   The Patriots are ahead of the Bengals due to strength of victory record (since the teams have the same conference record and do not have four common opponents), which is the composite record of the teams that NE or CIN beat this season.  NE's 10 wins:  BUF, ATL, BAL, TEN, TB, MIA, NYJ, CAR, BUF, and JAX.  Those team's combined record for NE are 64-85.  CIN's 10 wins: GB, PIT, CLE, BAL, CHI, BAL, PIT, CLE, DET, KC.  Those team's combined record for CIN are 60-88.  NE currently has a 3 1/2 game lead over CIN in SoV, with Chicago's game to be determined Monday.




Since: Apr 2, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 1:16 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Im a little confused. Currently, the Denver Broncos are listed as the 5th seed in the AFC based on their strength of victory being higher then that of the Ravens and Jets and a better conference record then the Texans and Steelers. So how is it that if the Jets, Ravens and Broncos all win next week, then it is the Jets and Ravens who clinch the Wild Card spots in the AFC? I can understand the Jets strength of victory increasing due to their supposed win over Cincinnati in week 17, but would the Ravens SOV increase that much with a win over the Raiders? Or what will change the current situation?



Since: Mar 19, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 1:11 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

OK I'm confused as to how the pats are the third seed and the bengals are fourth. If there is anyone that has a explantion as to how of the strength of victory please forward it to this thread. My ID is SabreMax1982 When it comes to the wild cards just wait until sunday night.



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 12:57 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Concern is....does CIN want to lose so they play the JETS in Wild Card weekend?  I'd rather play JETS than BAL or DEN. I just want to confirm that if Cincinnati loses to the Jets, they are pretty much guaranteed to host the Jets the following weekend (#4 seed hosts the #5 seed).

The Jets would be the #5 seed as they hold all tie-breakers, at 9-7, over the Ravens, Broncos, Steelers, and Texans.

If New England wins, Cincinnati would be 10-6 by themselves and get the #4 seed.

If New England loses, Cincinnati would lose the SoV (or Sos) tie-breaker to New England and get the #4 seed, unless all the below happens.

All of the following are needed to give Cincinnati a 1 game edge in SoV. New England has already clinched a better SoS in the case that they finished tied in SoV.

Monday night:
Chi win (vs. Min)

Week 17:
Pit win (at Mia), Bal win (at Oak), Cle win (vs. Jac), KC win (at Den),
GB win (at Ari), Buf loss (vs. Ind), Ten loss (at Sea), Car loss (vs. NO)






Since: Oct 21, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 12:39 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

This is what I have for next week in the AFC:

<big>AFC #3 seed</big>
Patriots with win and Bengals loss
Bengals with win and Patriots loss
If Patriots and Bengals both win or both lose, 3 seed will be decided on strength-of-victory.
Strength of victory for Bengals vs Patriots: (replace a team with 1 if they win next week; 0 if they lose):
Cincinnati: 2xCLE + 2xPIT + BAL + KC + GB
New England: 5 + 2xBUF + MIA + NYJ + JAX + TEN + CAR
[If BUF, JAX or MIA wins, NE is guaranteed to win this tiebreaker; NE wins if SOV is tied on SOS]

<big>AFC #5 seed</big>
Jets with win
Ravens with win and NYJ loss
Broncos with win and NYJ/BAL losses and (PIT loss or HOU win) or everyone (NYJ/BAL/DEN/PIT/HOU/JAX) loses.
Steelers with win and NYJ/BAL/HOU losses
Texans with win and NYJ/BAL/DEN losses
Jaguars with win and NYJ/BAL/DEN/PIT/HOU losses

<big>AFC #6 seed</big>
Ravens with win and NYJ win
Broncos with win and ([NYJ win and BAL loss] or [BAL win and NYJ loss]) and (PIT loss or HOU win) or win and NYJ/BAL/HOU losses and PIT win
Steelers with win and ([NYJ win and BAL loss] or [BAL win and NYJ loss]) and HOU loss or win and NYJ/BAL/DEN losses and HOU win
Texans with win and (exactly one of NYJ/BAL/DEN win)
Jaguars with win and (exactly one of NYJ/BAL/DEN/PIT/HOU win)

If out of (NYJ/BAL/DEN/PIT/HOU/JAX), the only team to win is:
PIT: Jets are 6th (CR over HOU, CG over BAL/DEN)
DEN: Dolphins are 6th (CR over HOU, SOV over BAL)
BAL: Broncos are 6th (CR over HOU/PIT, SOV over MIA)
HOU: Broncos are 6th (CR over HOU, SOV over MIA/BAL)
NYJ: Dolphins or Broncos are 6th (SOV)
JAX: Dolphins or Broncos are 6th (SOV)
none of them: Dolphins are 6th

<big>Any AFC wild card</big>
Jets with win or BAL/DEN/HOU/JAX/MIA loss
Ravens with win
Broncos with win and (NYJ loss or BAL loss) and (PIT loss or HOU win) or win and NYJ/BAL loss or NYJ/PIT/JAX loss and (BAL loss or HOU loss) or BAL/PIT/HOU loss and (NYJ loss or JAX loss) and strength-of-victory over MIA.
Steelers with win and (NYJ loss or BAL loss) and HOU loss or NYJ/BAL/DEN loss.
Texans with win and (no more than one of NYJ/BAL/DEN win).
Jaguars with win and (no more than one of NYJ/BAL/DEN/PIT/JAX win).
Dolphins with win and NYJ/BAL/HOU/JAX loss or win and BAL/DEN/HOU loss and (NYJ loss or JAX loss) and strength-of-victory over DEN.

Strength of victory for Broncos vs Dolphins (replace a team with 1 if they win next week; 0 if they lose):
Denver: 3 + SD + CIN + CLE + DAL + NYG
Miami: BUF + 2xNYJ + JAX + CAR + TAM
Both are clearly above BAL on SOV. MIA wins ties on SOS.


Does this agree with others?



Since: Dec 27, 2009
Posted on: December 28, 2009 12:35 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Jon,
   To my understanding, in this 9-5 four-division tiebreaker, with these four teams:
Houston would be knocked out by conference record, then common game tiebreaker would kick in week 17, since the Jets and Ravens would play their fourth common opponent in week 17.  NY Jets would win that three-way tiebreaker among common opponents NE, OAK, IND, and CIN (NYJ 4-1, DEN 3-2, BAL 1-4).  Then back to the BAL-DEN-HOU three-way tiebreaker, HOU out again by conference record, then BAL over DEN head to head.  SoV would not be used here.



Since: Dec 7, 2009
Posted on: December 28, 2009 12:23 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

If Baltimore, Houston, Denver and NY Jets all finish 9-7 wouldn't
Jets and Denver clinch based on Strength of Victory?


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