Blog Entry

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Posted on: December 22, 2009 1:32 am
 
AFC
(Key Week 16 Games: BAL @ PIT, KC @ CIN, DEN @ PHI, HOU @ MIA, NYJ @ IND, JAC @ NE, SD @ TEN)  

SAN DIEGO Chargers
  San Diego clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SD win or tie
   2) NE loss or tie

NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches East division:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) MIA loss or tie
  

CINCINNATI Bengals
  Cincinnati clinches North division:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) BAL loss
  Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot:
   1) CIN tie
   2) JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in a tie
  

BALTIMORE Ravens
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + DEN loss
   2) BAL win + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss
   3) BAL tie + NYJ loss + JAC loss + TEN loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in tie
  

DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + JAC loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie +
       PIT loss or tie
Comments

Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 27, 2009 10:56 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

CM85....you wrote:

FYI...The NFL has announced that the Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets game in Week 17 will be flexed into primetime (8:30pm ET), while Dallas at Philadelphia moves to 4:15pm ET on FOX.That's part of what we were working on.  NFL is smart...wanted to make sure the game they picked involved a team that controlled its own destiny.   That should be a good one.  Concern is....does CIN want to lose so they play the JETS in Wild Card weekend?  I'd rather play JETS than BAL or DEN.



Since: Dec 9, 2009
Posted on: December 27, 2009 10:55 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Let me take a stab at the Jaguars chances:
Am I correct in assuming that if JAC over CLE,
then if at least 4 of the following 5 occur, the Jaguars are in?MIA over PITNE over HOUOAK over BALKC over DENCIN over NYJ




Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 27, 2009 10:51 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

CM85....you are exactly correct.



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 27, 2009 10:43 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Yes...ecaiv...HOU is out of that tiebreaker on conf record.  I didn't forget about them....was just dealing with questions coming from 800 directions at that time and was trying to be brief.




Since: Nov 26, 2009
Posted on: December 27, 2009 10:41 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

First of all, a quick clarification TexRaven. For all those teams to be 8-8, PIT would have to lose to MIA and HOU would have to lose to NE, both of which are opposite of what you put.

If all 8 teams finish 8-8, the teams would be first ranked by division.

AFC West: 1. Denver
AFC South: 1. Jacksonville, 2. Tennessee, 3. Houston
AFC North: 1. Baltimore, 2. Pittsburgh
AFC East: 1. Miami, 2. NY Jets

AFC South is based on head-to-head for JAC being #1 (JAC 3-1 vs. TEN 2-2 vs. HOU 1-3) and division for TEN being #2 (1-1 head-to-head between TEN/HOU; TEN 2-4 division vs. HOU 1-5).
AFC North is based on division record (1-1 head-to-head between BAL/PIT; BAL 3-3 division vs. PIT 2-4).
AFC East is based on head-to-head (MIA swept NYJ 2-0).

So, the first tiebreaker is between Denver, Jacksonville, Baltimore, and Miami. No head-to-head sweeps are possible (only DEN vs. BAL and JAC vs. MIA were played). The next tiebreaker is conference, which Jacksonville wins (7-5 vs. 6-6 for DEN/BAL/MIA).

#2 wildcard would be between Denver, Tennessee, Baltimore, and Miami. No head-to-head sweeps again (only DEN vs. BAL and TEN vs. MIA were played). Go to conference, which eliminates Tennessee (6-6 for DEN/BAL/MIA vs. 4-8 TEN). Reverts to step 1, which still there is no head-to-head sweep among DEN/BAL/MIA, all have 6-6 conference record, all have 2-3 common games record. Next is Strength of Victory, which Denver would win in this scenario.
SoV among the 3, with the assumptions of above (i.e., all the games force the 8 teams to 8-8), I get the following SoV:
DEN: 63-58 w/ 7 other games
MIA: 58-67 w/ 3 other games
BAL: 48-76 w/ 4 other games

Neither Miami nor Baltimore can catch Denver in SoV under the conditions requried for all these teams to be 8-8, so Denver would get the #2 wildcard.

Summary: If all 8-7 or 7-8 AFC teams finish 8-8 (or if Tennessee loses, their game has no bearing on the 8-8 charade):
#1 wild card would go to Jacksonville.
#2 wild card would go to Denver.



Since: Dec 27, 2009
Posted on: December 27, 2009 10:34 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

FYI...The NFL has announced that the Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets game in Week 17 will be flexed into primetime (8:30pm ET), while Dallas at Philadelphia moves to 4:15pm ET on FOX.



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 27, 2009 10:27 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Joe, I noticed that the NFL site had the Broncos listed in front of the Jets and Baltimore at the moment in the standings.  I was figuring that since the common opponent tiebreaker can't be enforced yet, the Broncos technically remain in front because of the SoV tiebreaker for this week (DEN 60-59, NYJ 59-61, and BAL 46-73).  Then once the Jets and Ravens play their fourth common opponent in week 17, then the common opponent tiebreaker kicks in.  Is that the case?

That's right. At 9-7, once 3-way common games kicks in, the Jets win this tie-breaker. (It's a minimum of 4 games , so in some instances - but not this one - common games could kick in before all the common games have been played.)

At 8-8, meaning the Jets lose to Cincinnati, Baltimore drops out from 3-way common games, but Denver and the Jets remained tied. The 2-way common games are the same as the 3-way common games, so this tie-breaker comes down to SoV.





Since: Mar 18, 2009
Posted on: December 27, 2009 10:12 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

is denver ahead of wildcard race as of sunday night as your website says or behind jets and ravens as every other site ive seen says



Since: Dec 27, 2009
Posted on: December 27, 2009 9:53 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

If Denver beats KC

DEN would need 2 of BAL/NYJ/PIT to lose

Baltimore and New York Jets both control their destiny win and in.  PIT owns the H2H tie breaker for the last spot over DEN if they win and one of BAL/NYJ lose.

personally i would like to see the tie breaker for the following

BAL loss to OAK
NYJ loss to CIN
DEN loss to KC
MIA loss to PIT
CLE loss to JAC
SEA loss to TEN
NE loss to HOU

that would make
BAL,DEN,HOU,JAC,MIA,NYJ,PIT,TEN

all 8-8






Since: Jun 30, 2008
Posted on: December 27, 2009 9:49 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

What needs to happen in week 17 for the broncos to make the playoffs?


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