Blog Entry

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Posted on: December 22, 2009 1:32 am
 
AFC
(Key Week 16 Games: BAL @ PIT, KC @ CIN, DEN @ PHI, HOU @ MIA, NYJ @ IND, JAC @ NE, SD @ TEN)  

SAN DIEGO Chargers
  San Diego clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SD win or tie
   2) NE loss or tie

NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches East division:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) MIA loss or tie
  

CINCINNATI Bengals
  Cincinnati clinches North division:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) BAL loss
  Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot:
   1) CIN tie
   2) JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in a tie
  

BALTIMORE Ravens
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + DEN loss
   2) BAL win + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss
   3) BAL tie + NYJ loss + JAC loss + TEN loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in tie
  

DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + JAC loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie +
       PIT loss or tie
Comments

Since: Nov 27, 2007
Posted on: December 27, 2009 8:12 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Joe, you said "If Jets win and DEN loses...>JETS AND BALT control their own destiny as JETS would win 3 way tie with BAL and DEN on common opp." - Well, Jets won, Denver lost. Why a 3 way tie? What about Houston? I'm guessing it's conf record, but the post makes it look like you forgot about Houston.




Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 27, 2009 8:07 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

If the Jets lose next week to Cincinnati, and Bal beats Oak, Pit beats Mia, and Den beats KC...

...then the winner of the New England-Houston game will determine who makes the playoffs between Pittsburgh and Denver.

Denver winning a 3-way Den-Pit-Hou tie (conference record)

Pittsburgh winning a 2-way Den-Pit tie (head-to-head).


If the Colts didn't give away the game to the Jets by resting Manning, then the above situation would not have required a Jets loss next week.






Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 27, 2009 7:48 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17


7) Bal can still tie Mia in the 2-way 8-8 case .

a) This is because Den does not need to lose to Phi. The Den-KC game is irrelevant for Bal.

b) Mia can clinch a better SoV today with one of the following:
NYJ win (at Ind), Den loss (at Phi), Det loss (at SF),
Miami clinched SoV over Baltimore in the 8-8 case.



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 27, 2009 7:31 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Here is a link to a spreadsheet that calculates SoV (only wins, so it is defective in case of two ties, but...)

www.SportBuffet.com/NFL%20SoV%20Sta

ndings.xls

It is before the Philly-Denver result.  You can play with formulas and what not.  Enjoy!


Matt

Sorry Joe.  I have no idea how I included that Arizona game for New England.



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 27, 2009 7:14 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

If Denver loses to Philly to fall to 8-7, does the three-way tiebreaker with Denver, Pittsburgh, and Houston have precedence over Denver and Pittsburgh head to head? Yes. At 9-7 all around, Den would need to beat KC to improve their conference record to 7-5. This means Denver wins the 3-way tie-breaker despite losing head-to-head to Pittsburgh.

This would be a 4 way tie with Baltimore. Pittsburgh is eliminated first in any tie invloving Baltimore...
The real question will be how does a Den-Hou-Bal-NYJ tie breaker at 9-7 shake out. Hou goes out first, but then I think it gets down to SoV.
There are 2 Wild Cards at stake in this situation. Pittsburgh would have a chance at the 2nd Wild Card if Baltimore were to win the first. As it turns, NYJ get the 1st Wild Card based on common games record, and Bal gets the 2nd Wild Card. Explanations follow.


At 9-7 all around between Den, Hou, Bal, NYJ:

1) Hou drops out with 6-6 conference record.

2a) If Den loses to Phi and beats KC, they'll be even with Bal and NYJ at 7-5 in the AFC.

3a) NYJ win 3-way common games tie-breaker (4-1 for NYJ, 3-2 for Den, 1-4 for Bal) to get 1st Wild Card.

4a) Bal gets the 2nd Wild Card based on head-to-head win over Den.

2b) If Den beats Phi and loses to KC, Den drops out with 6-6 conference record.

3a) NYJ win 2-way common games tie-breaker (4-1 for NYJ, 1-4 for Bal) to get 1st Wild Card.

4a) Bal gets the 2nd Wild Card based on conference record (7-5 for Bal, 6-6 for Den and Hou).




Since: Dec 27, 2009
Posted on: December 27, 2009 7:01 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

If Denver loses to Philly and the Jets beat Indianapolis, I figured that Denver has a slight lead on SoV.  Denver would be at 60-59 with the Dallas/Washington game Sunday night to be figured in.  If the Jets beat the Colts, their SoV record would be at 59-61, if I'm figuring out that right.




Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 27, 2009 7:01 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Nevermind my question above....had bad common opponents for JEts....

If Jets win and DEN loses...>JETS AND BALT control their own destiny as JETS would win 3 way tie with BAL and DEN on common opp.

Then...BAL beats DEN H2h.




Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 27, 2009 6:48 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

Here's what I have on the Miami - Denver; Miami - Baltimore; and Miami - Denver - Baltimore Strength of Victory situations.

1) Miami can't finish 9-7, so all 9-7 SoV scenarios are out .

2) Miami, Denver, and Baltimore can all finish 8-8, 6-6 in AFC, and 2-3 in common games.

3) Mia needs to beat Pit.

4) Den needs to lose to Phi and KC (except in the 2-way Mia-Bal case).

5) Bal needs to lose to Oak (except in the 2-way Mia-Den case).

6) Denver's SoV benefits immensely by not beating Kansas a 2nd time next week.


5) Den has clinched the 3-way 8-8 SoV case .

a) Bal cannot catch Mia or Den.

b) It appears Mia can still tie Den, but NE can't win for Mia and lose for Den at the same time.


6) Mia can still tie Den in the 2-way 8-8 SoV case .

a) This is because Oak does not need to beat Bal next week.

b) Den can clinch a better SoV today with one of the following:
NYJ loss (at Ind), Dal win (vs. Was)
d) If not today, Den can clinch a better SoV next week with one of these:
Car loss (vs. NO), TB loss (vs. Atl), Jac loss (vs. Cle),
Buf loss (vs. Ind), NYJ loss vs. (Ind), SD win (vs. Was),
Dal win (vs. Phi), NYG win (vs. Min), Oak win (vs. Bal)


7) Bal can still tie Mia in the 2-way 8-8 case .

a) This is because Den does not need to lose to Phi. The Den-KC game is irrelevant for Bal.

b) Mia can clinch a better SoV today with one of the following:
NYJ win (at Ind), Den loss (at Phi), Det loss (at SF),
c) If not today, Mia can clinch tomorrow with:
Chi loss (vs. Min)
d) If not today or tomorrow, Mia can clinch a better SoV next week with one of these:
Car win (vs. NO), TB win (vs. Atl), Jac win (vs. Cle),
Buf win (vs. Ind), NYJ win vs. (Ind), SD loss (vs. Was)




Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 27, 2009 6:47 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

AFC is ugly....

right now...i have if JEts win and DEN loses...the JETS are the ONLY team that controls their own destiny for Wild Card in AFC... and if Jets lose and DEN loses....only BAL controls its own destiny (DEN could lose to PIT if HOU doesn't tie at 9-7) 

CAN SOMEONE RUN JETS vs. DEN Strength of Victory for me NOW!!!!   It's key if Jets win.



Since: Dec 3, 2008
Posted on: December 27, 2009 5:59 pm
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

I forgot to add they only need 4 of the above 5 to happen.


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com